Russian invasion of Ukraine

[jagfox]

8 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

With the humans rights offences added onto how unpalatable this war was anyway, how is it that Russia see their path back into the world? Or don't they? Surely they don't fancy trying to go it alone under these sanctions forever, with an active and hastened effort many countries to decrease reliance on their gas?
 

 

 

[welshbairn]

4 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

With the humans rights offences added onto how unpalatable this war was anyway, how is it that Russia see their path back into the world? Or don't they? Surely they don't fancy trying to go it alone under these sanctions forever, with an active and hastened effort many countries to decrease reliance on their gas?
 

They'll have to go it alone with China and the non western world, which will take maybe a decade of very harsh adjustment. The US had already overplayed its hand as global financial controller before this happened, unilateral sanctions all over the place and freezing Russia's national savings in dollars was probably the last straw. Whether the rest of Russia allows this to happen or they dump Putin and say sorry is the question.

[LongTimeLurker]

2 hours ago, Bairnardo said:

What's the story with the "ship killer" missiles? If the Ukranians can target the Russian Navy, that would be a pleasing move into destruction of proper mega money kit

There have been claims that the Ukrainians are doing that now:

Time will tell basically.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

How long before the proper chemical weapons make an appearance do we think?

[Bairnardo]

6 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkay said:

How long before the proper chemical weapons make an appearance do we think?

I think an escalation is pretty much due.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

17 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

I think an escalation is pretty much due.

Looking like it.  More hand wringing from the UN today. 

[ICTChris]

[Oystercatcher]

On 04/04/2022 at 16:49, welshbairn said:

tbf I'm not sure it has anything to do with the Russian army mark, could be a Harry Potter thing.

I think it's definitely a political statement, why else would he take the photo side on if not to show the z.

He's an utterly despicable c##t

[Florentine_Pogen]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/05/homes-for-ukraine-refugee-britain-hosts

"A policy of indifference to the plight of Ukrainian refugees would be morally repugnant, but honest. Millions fleeing the criminal butchery of Vladimir Putin’s army would be told that they were not welcome in Britain and should seek sanctuary elsewhere.

That is not the UK government line. Instead, something more insidious has taken shape – a device for mixing the desperation of displaced people with hospitality offered by the British public, and feeding both into a bureaucratic mangle so every drop of uncertainty and dread can be wrung out. That is the Homes for Ukraine scheme.

Making pain from generosity is an innovation in nastiness that no single Whitehall department could achieve. It takes a special failure of collaboration involving Michael Gove’s Levelling Up department, Priti Patel’s Home Office and the special ingredient – Boris Johnson’s delinquent inattention to detail."

[superbigal]

Sad thing is, only the Chinese could probably stop this war. No other country has any chance via diplomacy.

[welshbairn]

46 minutes ago, Oystercatcher said:

I think it's definitely a political statement, why else would he take the photo side on if not to show the z.

He's an utterly despicable c##t

I suspect it was a trolling thing that he was hoping would take off in the media, then he'd show a picture of his son in a Harry Potter outfit to show how silly everyone is. Thankfully he's being ignored.

[ICTChris]

Reports today that the Russian units who retreated from Northern Ukraine are being redeployed directly to the East/Donbass. This includes the units who occupied Bucha during the war crimes.

One thing this shows is the stretched nature of the Russian armed forces. Many of the units withdrawn from the North have taken significant casualties, lost lots of equipment and will be approaching combat ineffectiveness. For these units to be thrown back into action suggests that Russia is at capacity but doesn’t feel it can pull back or properly regroup. 

It’s a significant opportunity for the Ukrainian armed forces to have further success, if they can be reinforced and resupplied. That of course is also a question of how effectively that can be done. We don’t have as many details from the East but it seems a more static war with large scale attacks to take some territory. Will Russia be able to sustain this? Can Ukraine sustain defending it?

[VincentGuerin]

14 hours ago, Bairnardo said:

With the humans rights offences added onto how unpalatable this war was anyway, how is it that Russia see their path back into the world? Or don't they? Surely they don't fancy trying to go it alone under these sanctions forever, with an active and hastened effort many countries to decrease reliance on their gas?
 

Even more beholden to the whims of China than they were before.

Interesting One To Watch will be the developing relationship of the Chinese state to Siberia. Not inconceivable that they end up taking it off Russia in the medium term, and Vlad has made Russia's hand in that issue a good deal weaker here.

[Hillonearth]

1 hour ago, VincentGuerin said:

Even more beholden to the whims of China than they were before.

Interesting One To Watch will be the developing relationship of the Chinese state to Siberia. Not inconceivable that they end up taking it off Russia in the medium term, and Vlad has made Russia's hand in that issue a good deal weaker here.

The one takeaway so far is the weakness-exposing performance of the Russian military - their main achievement thus far is to have shown their arse and illuminated how much of a take-on they actually are...good for terrorising civilian populations but spectacularly inept when it comes to anything remotely resembling an actual square go.

Regardless of how cosy they are at the moment, resource hungry arch-pragmatists like the Chinese must surely be thinking "Hmmm..."

 

 

[Newbornbairn]

5 minutes ago, Hillonearth said:

The one takeaway so far is the weakness-exposing performance of the Russian military - their main achievement thus far is to have shown their arse and illuminated how much of a take-on they actually are...good for terrorising civilian populations but spectacularly inept when it comes to anything remotely resembling an actual square go.

Regardless of how cosy they are at the moment, resource hungry arch-pragmatists like the Chinese must surely be thinking "Hmmm..."

 

 

Aye but they're not stupid, they'll learn. Those troops being moved from near Kiev to the Donbas are the ones that learned quickly enough to survive and are more dangerous as a result.

[Hillonearth]

16 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

Aye but they're not stupid, they'll learn. Those troops being moved from near Kiev to the Donbas are the ones that learned quickly enough to survive and are more dangerous as a result.

You're right on a purely individual basis - those that have made it through will be on a new level of DGAFness than they were before. That being said however the real weaknesses have been organisational; equipment, logistics, command and control, doctrine and so on. Elements of their surviving soldiery having being brutalised beyond belief by previous experiences won't fix any of the systemic issues that currently make them a not-very-good army.

Edited April 6, 2022 by Hillonearth

[VincentGuerin]

30 minutes ago, Hillonearth said:

The one takeaway so far is the weakness-exposing performance of the Russian military - their main achievement thus far is to have shown their arse and illuminated how much of a take-on they actually are...good for terrorising civilian populations but spectacularly inept when it comes to anything remotely resembling an actual square go.

Regardless of how cosy they are at the moment, resource hungry arch-pragmatists like the Chinese must surely be thinking "Hmmm..."

 

 

Aye. There had long been speculation that the Russians were in a great position militarily. This is maybe Vlad's 'better to say nothing and be thought an idiot than open your mouth and prove it' moment.

He's shown his hand and it's not great.

[Sergeant Wilson]

2 minutes ago, VincentGuerin said:

Aye. There had long been speculation that the Russians were in a great position militarily. This is maybe Vlad's 'better to say nothing and be thought an idiot than open your mouth and prove it' moment.

He's shown his hand and it's not great.

As long as he doesn't think "fucking shite army...I know what'll work..."

[Hillonearth]

2 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

As long as he doesn't think "fucking shite army...I know what'll work..."

It's not one where I'd be willing to test the hypothesis, but you do wonder after years of neglect what operational state their nukes are in. Be fucking embarrassing if they ended up dropping one that turned out to be a dud.

[Sergeant Wilson]

3 minutes ago, Hillonearth said:

It's not one where I'd be willing to test the hypothesis, but you do wonder after years of neglect what operational state their nukes are in. Be fucking embarrassing if they ended up dropping one that turned out to be a dud.