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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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Russia Vox Pops asking questions about Bucha:


General gist from that seems to be if you're a female over 50 it's fake.
Mixed responses across the board but the younger generation seem to come across thinking Russia are the aggressors

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4.40 into the second video is revealing. A guy's 93 year old Dad in Ukraine tells him what's going on, and the son thinks it's because his Dad can't watch Russian TV. Sounds like they're not talking anymore.

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8 hours ago, Boo Khaki said:

Yeah, it's debatable whether nukes act as a deterrent to aggression by conventional means. All we have to go on is the fact that nuclear armed states tend to be isolated, or have hoofing great conventional forces that act as a deterrent anyway, so they've not really been subject to invading powers down the years regardless of their nuclear capabilities. The UK had a deterrent in the 80's and it didn't dissuade the Argentinians from occupying the Falklands. Granted, a calculated gamble, but still, an example of a non-nuclear nation aggressing a nuclear armed power. It appears the concept of MAD serves to prevent pre-emptive nuclear strikes, again debatable, but until such time a nuclear power pre-emptively nukes a fellow nuclear armed nation, you have to conclude that it is working. Does having a deployable deterrent absolutely preclude conventional attacks though? If you pushed me, I'd say no. 

I’d suggest it’s more of a collateral attack not causing a rise to a level of potential nuclear response. The Falklands invasion offered no “threat” to the UK other than the loss of a few sheep, islands, people and prestige. Had they struck Plymouth instead, the calculus changes considerably. If Ukraine had retained nuclear weapons, the Russians would not only be more circumspect with their missile attacks in order to not cause Ukraine to decide that the Russians were attempting to decapitate their nuclear capacity, but would also be more likely to have elected a smaller footprint of attack solely in the East of Ukraine.

The presence of a nuclear option for a country pretty much precludes State level actors from attacks that rise to WMD or existential threat levels. It doesn’t stop lower level actions, and actions calculated to not exceed certain thresholds (note, this assumes a rational leader, or leadership, for the assaulted party). That pretty much follows your final conclusion. As for your MAD conclusion, the key element there is, and has always been, the lack of sufficient certainty of result. With nuclear capable systems being relatively “unique” and untested, no matter how “confident” you are in their performance, they have an inherent element of risk that isn’t acceptable given the catastrophic nature of a failure to completely remove a nuclear armed opponents ability to counter-strike.

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11 hours ago, Boo Khaki said:

Don't give the Russian cheerleaders ideas

"Yeah, they couldn't possibly have killed all those civilians with that particular type of missile, because they've run out, having used their entire stock to clear apartment blocks and school buildings  Nazis and imperialists from Mariupol"

 

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7 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said:

Jesus. Their fake news arm is almost as fucking tinpot as their military emoji23.png

I love how relentless you appear to be at goading the Russian military with lol emojis.

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1 minute ago, Sweet Pete said:

I can't think of a single person who takes him seriously.

Which leads me to another point: the reason all the Russian fake news output is so easily debunkable and the reason all their western stooges are so utterly absurd and widely ridiculed is because a) they can't afford the good staff and b) even if they had the rubles for the talent, the talent would say no. So they end up stuck with a whole bunch of comical ali's both in house and abroad.

"We slaughtered them at the airport" =/= "We have mostly achieved our initial goals" =/= "I am not Russian state media, stop saying that or I'll sue".

The Russian Federation has been thoroughly exposed as little more than a pisspoor dictatorship on a par with the ones we're used to seeing in smaller Latin American and Middle Eastern nations. They're just like Cuba, Nicaragua or Iran but with shitter weather and a larger landmass. They're f**k all.

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1 minute ago, Jacksgranda said:

He takes himself very seriously...

He blocked on Twitter me at Xmas time when he was talking about his daughter being told to “f**k off back to England” during an altercation at a Tesco in Dumfries. The way he was playing the victim card and the type of anti snp shite he was stirring up was horrendous. 

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21 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

He takes himself very seriously...

No he doesn't. None of these grifters do. They hope they project seriousness so that some simple soul who feels lost and misunderstood will take them seriously and send them dollars, drachmas, euros, rubles or sterling. He believes in nothing but money. He'd be a prostitute in another life. He'd be a nihilist, but he doesn't have the backbone for it and it doesn't pay.

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22 hours ago, Sweet Pete said:

Yes, I'm confident they'd gamble (perfectly reasonably) that Ukraine would not have launched nukes into their neighbour in response to a conventional land war.

Nukes don't get used. And because they don't get used (because the consequences of use are too far reaching), they cease to become a deterrent. They become moot.

A well funded, trained and equipped conventional military where land, sea and air forces are fully cooperative and integrated is a better deterrent against foreign invasion.

Nonsense. Nukes are a deterrent. They are the only reason NATO haven't gone full bhoona into providing Ukraine with all the hardware and personnel to combat the fucking madman because he has Nukes at his disposal.

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