Russian invasion of Ukraine

[welshbairn]

4 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Macron actually said "the age of abundance is over". 

He's easily the most honest world leader, I'd put money him saying "Eat the bugs" before his term ends. 

Snails, frogs, worms, gallic shrug...

[Wee-Bey]

45 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

I see the Ukrainian Premier League season has started, but behind closed doors.

Expecting plenty of goals as there's lots of sharp shooters in the league.

[Wee-Bey]

8 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Macron actually said "the age of abundance is over". 

He's easily the most honest world leader, I'd put money him saying "Eat the bugs" before his term ends. 

He'll do well to top these.

[Michael W]

11 hours ago, renton said:

I suppose the point is here, that, in dribs and drabs they already are. Long range precision weaponry will allow Ukraine to degrade Russian logistics and Command and Control. It's the type of campaign the West would usually do with overwhelming air superiority but Ukraine will take longer with just using MLRS and drones.

Russian offsensive capablities appear to have culminated now in the short term, and without a full mobilisation it will take them to the next round of call ups to start to make good their manpower issues, while still being largely unable to replenish their own PGM stocks and first line armour.

I could potentially see Ukraine being able to shift the Russians out of Kherson and the Hydro Dam to the West. If they can continue to attrite Russian logisitics, HQs and keep the bridges inoperable, the Russians may be faced with withdrawing becuase the liklehood of fighting with your back to a river that you can't cross en masse with heavy equipment freely isn't appetising. Or they do stand and fight but Ukraine by that point has enough combat power and the Russians at the end of a strangled supply line struggle to hold.

That's as much as I could see them doing in the short term. If they can get more long range PGMs into theatre, backed up by Western intelligence they could make life pretty rough for the Russians over winter., and grind them down.

However, I don't see an end point where the Russians come back happily to turning the gas back on.  Even if(unlikely as it sounds) Ukraine managed to kick them out entirely, what then? Would the Russians declare an end to their 'special operation'? Even if they did, without some kind of actual peace deal it's unlikely to see an end to sanctions in return for gas resupply.

In the short term, you could use the Covid Furlough type strategy where Government spends the money through borrowing to keep the cap down, longer term though? A huge uptick in heat pumps/imersion heaters? Better insulation on houses and businesses? Move to electrical combination boilers plus a massive shift to Small Nuclear Reactors that would allow the country to shift to secure electrical supplies within a decade?

Anyway you look at it is going to require a massive pivot in infrastructure on a near war economy scale.

I do wonder at what point the 'special military operation' stuff is confined to the bin and they start fully mobilising. Russia has a lot of men to throw at the situation if need be, perhaps if they start being pushed back substantially. You would hope it doesn't get to the stage where they mass mobilise, but it's hard to envisage it not happening if they start being pushed back. 

Agree also that the days of plentiful gas from Russia are now over and we need to take our own initiative on producing power. It'll take about a decade unfortunately and will probably piss a whole load of people off for numerous reasons (nuclear, North Sea gas etc.). In the meantime, the government has to do whatever it takes to get the bills down as we are heading for a complete meltdown. 

Though in saying that, a change in approach will be needed to actually deliver it. Far too many such projects seem to be indefinitely delayed or end up being canned because of opposition and/or general dithering. Seems like we've been trying to build a new nuclear power station for years without ever breaking ground.  Whether a £500 monthly bill might focus minds of people that might be inclined to try and stall/prevent such things, we will soon see. The danger is I think delaying in the hope the war ends soon. As you say, even if Ukraine wins it is not necessarily the case that Europe will get its gas all fine and dandy again. 

It's not going to be easy. 

 

[Todd_is_God]

18 minutes ago, Michael W said:

Boris Johnson went and said it as well. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-6266324

I jested about it, but there it is. Sorry you'll be freezing and hungry this winter. Russia, innit. 

The replies to this on twitter are pretty unanimous - there is little public appetite for domestic suffering for the benefit of Ukraine.

As VT said earlier governments who pile misery on their own populations for the benefit of bankrolling Ukraine will pay the price when elections roll round.

To Detournament's point, further to that, those who erode domestic quality of life for any cause will do the same.

[Todd_is_God]

3 minutes ago, Michael W said:

I do wonder at what point the 'special military operation' stuff is confined to the bin and they start fully mobilising.

The second a Ukrainian boot threatens to actually step into Crimea.

[Wee-Bey]

Not feeling the love for the forever war tonight lads.

[Bairnardo]

2 minutes ago, Stringer Bell said:

Not feeling the love for the forever war tonight lads.

Few avatars needing a blue and yellow tint to remind them whats important IMO. 

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

The replies to this on twitter are pretty unanimous - there is little public appetite for domestic suffering for the benefit of Ukraine.

If Twitter was a true reflection of public opinion ALBA would have romped the election. If the UK stopped supporting Ukraine tomorrow it would have zero effect on fuel bills.

[Wee-Bey]

2 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Few avatars needing a blue and yellow tint to remind them whats important IMO. 

The Ghost of Kiev will be turning in his grave doing barrel rolls in his fighter jet.

[vikingTON]

4 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

If Twitter was a true reflection of public opinion ALBA would have romped the election. If the UK stopped supporting Ukraine tomorrow it would have zero effect on fuel bills.

It could swing some of that bottomless pit of 'military aid' to a kleptocratic state towards keeping its own citizens fed and warm though. The public are not going to buy it and even the new clown of Kiev couldn't use but... Ukraine! to stop him being emptied by his own party. 

[Detournement]

15 minutes ago, Michael W said:

I do wonder at what point the 'special military operation' stuff is confined to the bin and they start fully mobilising. Russia has a lot of men to throw at the situation if need be, perhaps if they start being pushed back substantially. You would hope it doesn't get to the stage where they mass mobilise, but it's hard to envisage it not happening if they start being pushed back. 

 

 

As long as the casualty rate stays heavily in their favour they don't have any motivation to change tactics. There's no time limit on the war and a ceasefire isn't going to result in sanctions being lifted in significant way. 

The regular Russian army is now making an offensive towards Nikolaev after all the talk about Ukraine pushing on from their to Kherson. Whether it's a serious attempt to take the city or more manoeuvring to put Ukraine under greater stress it shows that Russia is completely in the driving seat regarding the real fighting.

Quote

Analysts estimate that Russia is firing around 10,000 artillery shells a day, down from a peak of as much as 20,000 during the campaign to take Luhansk, and that Ukraine is firing several thousand artillery rounds a month.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/24/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-toll.html

Russia have a (minimum) 30:1 artillery advantage. As long as they can maintain that Ukraine won't be able to do anything other than defend and retreat.

Edited August 24, 2022 by Detournement

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

If Twitter was a true reflection of public opinion ALBA would have romped the election. If the UK stopped supporting Ukraine tomorrow it would have zero effect on fuel bills.

I disagree with you tbh. During the majority of Covid, for example, twitter replies were very much in line with overall public support for restrictions.

It was only towards the end that support waned, and this was then reflected on twitter etc.

The bit in bold is true, but there's no getting away from the fact it is a huge cause of them being where there are - those people gleefully waving their wee Ukraine flags back in February and March wouldn't have been so enthusiastic in doing so if they knew their energy bills were going to hit £6,000 a year later.

As it did with Covid restrictions, now that it is sinking in for people the repercussions of the government involving itself in the war, public support is vanishing.

[welshbairn]

7 minutes ago, virginton said:

It could swing some of that bottomless pit of 'military aid' to a kleptocratic state towards keeping its own citizens fed and warm though. The public are not going to buy it and even the new clown of Kiev couldn't use but... Ukraine! to stop him being emptied by his own party. 

The only things that would fix the fuel price problem would be Germany going back to total energy dependence on Russia and opening up Nord Stream 2, or countries getting together to put a cap on what they're willing to pay suppliers.

[Todd_is_God]

3 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The only things that would fix the fuel price problem would be Germany going back to total energy dependence on Russia and opening up Nord Stream 2, or countries getting together to put a cap on what they're willing to pay suppliers.

https://www.politico.eu/article/vice-president-of-the-german-parliament-calls-for-activation-of-nord-stream-2/

[welshbairn]

4 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

https://www.politico.eu/article/vice-president-of-the-german-parliament-calls-for-activation-of-nord-stream-2/

Sounds like he has little support even in his own opposition party. Russia is using its gas supply dominance as a tool for imperial expansion through brutality, it should be resisted by consumer countries putting a cap on what they're willing to pay. The reduction of supply through Nordstream 1, months before the invasion and recently has been a deliberate move to reduce European reserves and jack up the price. The consumer countries aren't entirely impotent in this, Russia can't instantly redirect their pipelines across continents to China.

[Todd_is_God]

10 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Sounds like he has little support even in his own opposition party. Russia is using its gas supply dominance as a tool for imperial expansion through brutality, it should be resisted by consumer countries putting a cap on what they're willing to pay. The reduction of supply through Nordstream 1, months before the invasion and recently has been a deliberate move to reduce European reserves and jack up the price. The consumer countries aren't entirely impotent in this, Russia can't instantly redirect their pipelines across continents to China.

This is true but, given they have just announced measures to effectively ration energy, I would not be surprised to see it begin to gain support when the cold starts to bite.

How do you propose the second bold bit would work btw? Collectively saying you won't pay more than x is all well and good, but when you need the product then not paying the market price isn't an option. Those selling the gas will simply hold onto it knowing that you will come back when you are desperate. And if you still won't pay, someone else will and you'll end up with none.

A cap on the global wholesale market price of gas isn't going to happen, because it can't.

The gas being sold at astronomical prices isn't necessarily Russian - the UK imported zero Russian gas last month for example. The market price for gas is the market price for gas, regardless of where it comes from.

Edited August 24, 2022 by Todd_is_God

[Nkomo-A-Gogo]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

Snails, frogs, worms, gallic shrug...

I think the French will be fine.

I saw them eating little sparrow sized birds whole with a dish towel over their heads so they could pull the bones out of their mouths. 

 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ortolan_bunting

[welshbairn]

7 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

This is true but, given they have just announced measures to effectively ration energy, I would not be surprised to see it begin to gain support when the cold starts to bite.

How do you propose the second bold bit would work btw? Collectively saying you won't pay more than x is all well and good, but when you need the product then not paying the market price isn't an option. Those selling the gas will simply hold onto it knowing that you will come back when you are desperate. And if you still won't pay, someone else will and you'll end up with none.

A cap on the global wholesale market price of gas isn't going to happen, because it can't.

The gas being sold at astronomical prices isn't necessarily Russian - the UK imported zero Russian gas last month for example. The market price for gas is the market price for gas, regardless of where it comes from.

Russian gas isn't sitting in tankers roaming the world for customers, most of it anyway. The vast majority of it is reliant on pipes directed at European countries to sell. They're manipulating supply and price as geopolitical leverage to enable a brutal invasion, I think they should be resisted and that the consumers could also have leverage if they cooperated in enforcing a price cap. There's no reason to treble the profits of Shell, BP and Gazprom without at least challenging their power to do so. The free market shouldn't ride over everything, especially when it's being used as an instrument of war.

[Todd_is_God]

11 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Russian gas isn't sitting in tankers roaming the world for customers, most of it anyway. The vast majority of it is reliant on pipes directed at European countries to sell. They're manipulating supply and price as geopolitical leverage to enable a brutal invasion, I think they should be resisted and that the consumers could also have leverage if they cooperated in enforcing a price cap. There's no reason to treble the profits of Shell, BP and Gazprom without at least challenging their power to do so. The free market shouldn't ride over everything, especially when it's being used as an instrument of war.

You keep saying this, but avoid answering how you think this would be done.