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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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1 hour ago, CaspianChris said:

Putin and his regime are fucking lunatics who have completely lost the plot, however the failure of Western nations to stand up to him has lead to this as it let's him think he can do what he wants with little to zero consequence to him and his cronies.

The only people to decide if they should join NATO are Finland and Sweden and them alone.

Regardless of the lunatic rantings of the Putin regime.

 

Putin is an evil c**t, i hope someone assassinates him. 

1 hour ago, Melanius Mullarkay said:

Is it feasible for some c**t to take the c**t out?

Im sure it happens on only fans. 

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Wait did he actually state this? I'm sure that historians in 100 years' time will be delighted to know that the all-out nuclear war of our century was caused by the combination of a wild NATO statement and some teenage VL hacker in Omsk. 
The critical and as yet unregulated international framework for cyberwarfare should not be made up on the hoof at a fucking press conference. Stoltenberg is the most risible clown with a microphone since Clownshoes Leitch. 
He did although wouldn't state what kind of cyber attack would trigger a response. Gives him a bit of wiggle room
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2 minutes ago, virginton said:

Wait did he actually state this? I'm sure that historians in 100 years' time will be delighted to know that the all-out nuclear war of our century was caused by the combination of a wild NATO statement and some teenage VL hacker in Omsk. 

The critical and as yet unregulated international framework for cyberwarfare should not be made up on the hoof at a fucking press conference. Stoltenberg is the most risible clown with a microphone since Clownshoes Leitch. 

Apparently so. 

 

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2 hours ago, Lex said:

Looks like they're going to fight it out in Kiev. Terrifying, this could get Stalingrad-esque very quickly. Molotov cocktails being launched from buildings and civilians with guns squaring up to armoured tank divisions. It's going to be a bloodbath unless either side blinks.

Smart money goes on the infantry when facing solely armour in an urban environment, see Stalingrad, Battle of. If, and only if, the Russian infantry is nearby to suppress attacks on the vehicles can they possibly prevail. You also have the fighting for their homes vs fighting for Putin dynamic too.

Amusingly, Putin seems to have stripped his Far Eastern formations to gather this force, so I’d be interested in the conversations in Beijing right now…Taiwan is their interest, but if Putin/Russia takes a hit here, Siberia is a shitload of resources.

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2 minutes ago, MuckleMoo said:
7 minutes ago, virginton said:
Wait did he actually state this? I'm sure that historians in 100 years' time will be delighted to know that the all-out nuclear war of our century was caused by the combination of a wild NATO statement and some teenage VL hacker in Omsk. 
The critical and as yet unregulated international framework for cyberwarfare should not be made up on the hoof at a fucking press conference. Stoltenberg is the most risible clown with a microphone since Clownshoes Leitch. 

He did although wouldn't state what kind of cyber attack would trigger a response. Gives him a bit of wiggle room

 

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23 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

Not going into Ukraine though, so its up to Putin still what happens.

Proper "one minute to midnight" feeling about this now. We are absolutely fucked.

It’s fucking awful.  It’s not hyperbole at all to say that the leaders of Ukraine could be dead within the week, and civilians are being bombed as we type for no other reason than not being beholden to Vladimir Putin.  

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5 minutes ago, MuckleMoo said:
10 minutes ago, virginton said:
Wait did he actually state this? I'm sure that historians in 100 years' time will be delighted to know that the all-out nuclear war of our century was caused by the combination of a wild NATO statement and some teenage VL hacker in Omsk. 
The critical and as yet unregulated international framework for cyberwarfare should not be made up on the hoof at a fucking press conference. Stoltenberg is the most risible clown with a microphone since Clownshoes Leitch. 

He did although wouldn't state what kind of cyber attack would trigger a response. Gives him a bit of wiggle room

Hopefully the response would be proportionate, hacking the Kremlin website and getting @throbber to display his artwork on it, rather than launching nukes.

Edited by welshbairn
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The Russian mafia have been mentioned a few times here. There are three strands to criminality in Russia, and most former Soviet states. There are professional criminals, mafioso, gangsters etc; there are businessmen, oligarchs etc; then there are the silovik, the secuocrats. All these groups are interlinked but also they overlap. It is perfectly possible for someone to be, simultaneously, an organised criminal, an oligarch and a state security asset. Murders are often carried out by state assets, oligarchs are linked to intelligence agencies and politicians. Politics in Russia is really dominated by security people, almost everyone near the top has a background in it.

Put simply, this means that there is pretty much no drive from criminal groups to try and overthrow Putin or anyone else like that. They are part of the apparatus of the state, same as the oligarchs. In the last week we’ve had two super weird televised meetings with first the state security committee all paying tribute to Putin, who even slapped down his security minister publicly for suggesting they could still negotiate. The. We had the “industrial group”, a committee of oligarchs doing the same thing, all sitting on one arsecheek while Putin tells them what the score is. Any of these people who have even hinted at opposing him is dealt with swiftly, the obvious example being Khordorkovsky, then the richest man in Russia who opposed Putin and was imprisoned.

Putin took power, strengthened thenRussian state and made sure that any of the oligarchs needed his approval to operate, essentially licensing them. Stay out of his lane and make yourself useful when needed and you could keep your billion dollar illicit gains. So the oligarchs aren’t going to overthrow him, ever. The state security are deeply loyal to him, he has built the state on them. The Russian mafia is essentially a wing of those two groups and the ones who still operate do so with the states compliance. The state uses crooks when carrying out assassinations, look at the number of shootings of Chechen activists and refugees and the people who get arrested for them.

Basically there is no chance of any of these groups challenging the state power. Now 90% of that is good - Russia in the 1990s shows what happens with oligarchs and crooks are given free reign. The crackdowns on NGOs and the civilian state as well mean there is really no avenue for a challenge to Putin to come from. 

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5 hours ago, scottsdad said:

Then again, are tanks at the forefront of modern warfare? 

Imagine the French generals in 1940 confident that they had more horses than the Germans (which they did, and boasted about).

 

4 hours ago, virginton said:

The French also had more (and typically better) tanks in 1940, and far more aircraft once combined with the British. The Western Allies had no idea how to use them effectively in a battlefield situation though.

The French certainly lacked the command and control of the Germans. Also they lacked radios in their tanks.

4 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Sirens blaring in central Kiev.

 

I stayed in that hotel when I was in the Ukraine. When I got there it was in the middle of the Orange revolution. I thought to myself I've travelled the length of Europe to get away from that sort of shite....

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21 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

The Russian mafia have been mentioned a few times here. There are three strands to criminality in Russia, and most former Soviet states. There are professional criminals, mafioso, gangsters etc; there are businessmen, oligarchs etc; then there are the silovik, the secuocrats. All these groups are interlinked but also they overlap. It is perfectly possible for someone to be, simultaneously, an organised criminal, an oligarch and a state security asset. Murders are often carried out by state assets, oligarchs are linked to intelligence agencies and politicians. Politics in Russia is really dominated by security people, almost everyone near the top has a background in it.

Put simply, this means that there is pretty much no drive from criminal groups to try and overthrow Putin or anyone else like that. They are part of the apparatus of the state, same as the oligarchs. In the last week we’ve had two super weird televised meetings with first the state security committee all paying tribute to Putin, who even slapped down his security minister publicly for suggesting they could still negotiate. The. We had the “industrial group”, a committee of oligarchs doing the same thing, all sitting on one arsecheek while Putin tells them what the score is. Any of these people who have even hinted at opposing him is dealt with swiftly, the obvious example being Khordorkovsky, then the richest man in Russia who opposed Putin and was imprisoned.

Putin took power, strengthened thenRussian state and made sure that any of the oligarchs needed his approval to operate, essentially licensing them. Stay out of his lane and make yourself useful when needed and you could keep your billion dollar illicit gains. So the oligarchs aren’t going to overthrow him, ever. The state security are deeply loyal to him, he has built the state on them. The Russian mafia is essentially a wing of those two groups and the ones who still operate do so with the states compliance. The state uses crooks when carrying out assassinations, look at the number of shootings of Chechen activists and refugees and the people who get arrested for them.

Basically there is no chance of any of these groups challenging the state power. Now 90% of that is good - Russia in the 1990s shows what happens with oligarchs and crooks are given free reign. The crackdowns on NGOs and the civilian state as well mean there is really no avenue for a challenge to Putin to come from. 

Unless he puts a dress on and declares himself the reincarnation of Catherine the Great. Or they have a more sane and equably cooperative candidate to replace him with. I don't see a path to Russia (including the 3 groups you mention) gaining out of this other than a rapid deal with Zelensky or becoming a tribute state to China. "Of course we'll buy that gas you were going to sell to Germany, but I regret to have to tell you, the price has dropped a tad."

Edited by welshbairn
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Ladies and gentlemen, a wee culture break in the face of Armageddon. With almost sincere apologies to WHA and whoever put the original of this work on the "Songs About Trains" thread. I kinda lost interest after the first couplet to be honest. As you can tell.

Fright Train not by WH Auden

This is the Russians crossing the Border,
Bringing disaster and the total disorder,

Bombs for the rich, bombs for the poor,
The shop at the corner, the girl next door.

Pulling through Donbass, a steady climb:
The world's against them – they say it's no crime.

Past Chernobyl and moorland boulder
Towns and villages starting to smoulder,

Coming by tank and plane and ship,

No use for a mail train on this ego trip.

In the farm they pass no one wakes,
Not since the shell hit.

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Audi, General Motors, Volkswagen and Land Rover have suspended shipments to Russian resellers.

I’ve changed my mind on my earlier post. The gopnik Audi loving gangsters will have Putin dead by midday tomorrow.

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Just now, ICTChris said:

Audi, General Motors, Volkswagen and Land Rover have suspended shipments to Russian resellers.

I’ve changed my mind on my earlier post. The gopnik Audi loving gangsters will have Putin dead by midday tomorrow.

Volkswagen taking a stand in keeping with the principled history of their company. 

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