Energy Prices

[Detournement]

12 hours ago, gaz5 said:

In other news, water is wet.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

3 years of inflation at current in levels in Western Europe will cause huge social problems. The BoE have said this won't happen, however they pretty much say whatever suits the Government. 

Big Jabba from BIS is basically saying get ready for chaos.

 

[gaz5]

3 years of inflation at current in levels in Western Europe will cause huge social problems. The BoE have said this won't happen, however they pretty much say whatever suits the Government. 
Big Jabba from BIS is basically saying get ready for chaos.
 

Yeah, they (like the FED) say a lot of things and I don't have too much faith in either of them when they do.

They've all been saying inflation "wouldn't be an issue", when anyone sane looking at the figures and projections (particularly supply side) could see it was going to run rampant in 22.

I agree with you, it's going to be an uncomfortable few years for everyone, unfortunately. We're in a situation where those in control of economies globally are having to decide how they pay the piper for nearly 2 decades of reckless spending.

The interest rate rises announced (3x 25bp here and 4 in the States) is very much closing the stable door after the horse has bolted IMO. That won't touch the sides of the issue. Might not even be enough to halt it.

But to go any harder than that would undoubtedly pop what looks like the biggest asset bubble in history, one which their piss poor monetary policy has caused, for the most part.

And, call me an old cynic, but at this point it's going to be bad either way and all higher rate raises will do is hurt their mates more. Tories in particular don't have a great record of putting the people first.

Either way, the end of Q2 is going to be interesting.

[Detournement]

36 minutes ago, gaz5 said:

Yeah, they (like the FED) say a lot of things and I don't have too much faith in either of them when they do.

They've all been saying inflation "wouldn't be an issue", when anyone sane looking at the figures and projections (particularly supply side) could see it was going to run rampant in 22.

I agree with you, it's going to be an uncomfortable few years for everyone, unfortunately. We're in a situation where those in control of economies globally are having to decide how they pay the piper for nearly 2 decades of reckless spending.

The interest rate rises announced (3x 25bp here and 4 in the States) is very much closing the stable door after the horse has bolted IMO. That won't touch the sides of the issue. Might not even be enough to halt it.

But to go any harder than that would undoubtedly pop what looks like the biggest asset bubble in history, one which their piss poor monetary policy has caused, for the most part.

And, call me an old cynic, but at this point it's going to be bad either way and all higher rate raises will do is hurt their mates more. Tories in particular don't have a great record of putting the people first.

Either way, the end of Q2 is going to be interesting.

Interest rates going up won't reduce inflation at all. There is no connection between the cost of credit and current prices.

As i've said before a few times the inflation is coming from the decision to shut down large parts of the global economy for 2 years and price gouging by the monopolist owners of corporations who are making record profits. Squeezing the purchasing power of the proles is obviously the intention here, letting the stock market burst would lead to a political disaster given that most governments rely on pensioners to get elected so I would guess that won't happen.

[gaz5]

Interest rates going up won't reduce inflation at all. There is no connection between the cost of credit and current prices.
As i've said before a few times the inflation is coming from the decision to shut down large parts of the global economy for 2 years and price gouging by the monopolist owners of corporations who are making record profits. Squeezing the purchasing power of the proles is obviously the intention here, letting the stock market burst would lead to a political disaster given that most governments rely on pensioners to get elected so I would guess that won't happen.

Yep. Pretty much my thinking.

I think we'll see a pullback in markets, but, at this stage anyway, I don't see the Armageddon that many are predicting for exactly the same reason you've mentioned. That would cause a catastrophe that would take decades to get out of.

[Leith Green]

Some tory bawbag - Greg Hands - on Radio Scotland this morning basically spent 15 minutes lying about everything he was asked about, from Nuclear, to Hydrocarbons, to Sunaks missus.

They are all smooth talking tossers.

[bobbykdy]

5 hours ago, Leith Green said:

Some tory bawbag - Greg Hands - on Radio Scotland this morning basically spent 15 minutes lying about everything he was asked about, from Nuclear, to Hydrocarbons, to Sunaks missus.

They are all smooth talking tossers.

He got laughed out on Question Time last night.

 

[philpy]

My new employer (well, they will be in a month) is paying his staff an extra  £120 a month to help cover rising living costs. Bloody fantastic gesture,  don't see the "big hitters" doing this....

[Melanius Mullarkey]

13 minutes ago, philpy said:

My new employer (well, they will be in a month) is paying his staff an extra  £120 a month to help cover rising living costs. Bloody fantastic gesture,  don't see the "big hitters" doing this....

Congratulations, Mr Philpy MP for Musselburgh East, with portfolio for car parking.

[Thane of Cawdor]

2 hours ago, bobbykdy said:

He got laughed out on Question Time last night.

 

Definition of Indian giver

Dated, offensive: a person who gives something to another and then takes it back or expects an equivalent in return. 

[Jacksgranda]

On 07/04/2022 at 11:53, Detournement said:

3 years of inflation at current in levels in Western Europe will cause huge social problems. The BoE have said this won't happen, however they pretty much say whatever suits the Government. 

Big Jabba from BIS is basically saying get ready for chaos.

 

He won't need to worry about rising food prices, he's enough resources there to see out the next 3 years.

[101]

Anyone taking part in the 10pm blackout tonight? Seems to be organised on Facebook to turn off at the fusebox at 10pm. Only for 10 mins so not sure how the grid would cope with folk doing this en masse.

[BFTD]

10 minutes ago, 101 said:

Anyone taking part in the 10pm blackout tonight? Seems to be organised on Facebook to turn off at the fusebox at 10pm. Only for 10 mins so not sure how the grid would cope with folk doing this en masse.

Why?

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, BFTD said:

Why?

Seems like a load of pointless shite to me

ETA 101 Beat me to it. £9m is chump change to these companies anyway.

Edited April 10, 2022 by Todd_is_God

[101]

1 minute ago, BFTD said:

Why?

Some pish about costing the energy sector £9m, a figure I seriously doubt.

Anyway full post here.

[BFTD]

As with most things on Facebook, that strikes me as bullshit.

Also, considering how much money the energy companies make, it's the financial equivalent of somebody angrily flouncing out of a charity shop without buying anything because the manager won't reduce a £3 book to £1.

[101]

Looking at the daily demand data it looks like it dropped but not even by 10GW, so don't think it was very effective.

[Juanhourjoe]

10 hours ago, 101 said:

Anyone taking part in the 10pm blackout tonight? Seems to be organised on Facebook to turn off at the fusebox at 10pm. Only for 10 mins so not sure how the grid would cope with folk doing this en masse.

Heard about this but very late, so didn't take part. I see there's another at 7pm next Saturday. I'm sure it will gain some momentum. I don't see it really helping short term. But in pushing people to go a step further to get some help.

Though apparently the Spanish government did spend £16bn after this was done in Spain.

[Jacksgranda]

13 hours ago, 101 said:

Looking at the daily demand data it looks like it dropped but not even by 10GW, so don't think it was very effective.

It would only have had an impact if everyone did it.

[101]

11 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

It would only have had an impact if everyone did it.

I don't know for sure but surely turning off wouldn't be a massive problem but everyone turning the power back on would causes issues I imagine.

[Bairnardo]

I don't know for sure but surely turning off wouldn't be a massive problem but everyone turning the power back on would causes issues I imagine.

It would in theory cause a problem for power generation as they are nominated for what they plan to produce over a period of the next few hours. If demand suddenly drops they would be told to de-load because there's nowhere for that power to go.

What I'm not sure about is who pays in that scenario. I do know that if a power station has to drop back from their nomination for their own reasons, they have to "buy back" the shortfall which can quickly run into mega money. So someone, somewhere is paying if the grid takes a big shock in demand.