The Official Stephen Flynn & Mhairi Black Thread

[lichtgilphead]

4 hours ago, orfc said:

Same as what's happening with the tories. Jumping before they're pushed, seeing the writing on the wall, rats leaving a sinking ship etc etc

Or does someone have a better reason why six SNP MPs (>10% of them) have decided within a month they don't want to stand for an election that hasn't been announced yet?

Perhaps it's because the Tories latest gerrymandering of the constituency boundaries is due to come into force in the near future? Scotland will lose 2 seats (down to 57) and Wales 8 (down to 32). Ten new seats have been created in England (mainly in Tory areas, surprise, surprise!) The final recommendations were laid before Parliament on 28 June 2023. That was just last week, in case you are chronologically challenged.

As many boundaries have changed, sitting MP's are not automatically reselected, so need to tell the party whether they wish to be considered for their 'new' constituency.

For example, my local seat (Argyll & Bute, currently held by Brendan O'Hara - SNP) is going to take a chunk of Ian Blackford's Ross, Skye & Lochaber seat (also SNP) , and will be known as Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber. Obviously, this means that Brendan is likely to be selected if he chooses to stand.

Whilst you correctly state that the election hasn't been called yet, it would seem prudent for all political parties to decide on their candidates for the new constituencies when they change, not at the time of the next election. Obviously, as the majority of sitting Scottish MP's are SNP, these changes will be more high profile than the changes to the losing candidates in the current constituencies in 2019.

In addition, at least eight SNP MP's were over 60 in 2019 (At least one was over 70)*. That means that they will all probably be over 65 by the time of the next election.  The state pension retiral age for people of that age will be 65 (or maybe 66 - I'm not sure of the latest pension cutoff dates)

Do you expect SNP MP's to continue to work forever? 

 

* Source - House of Commons Library

[tamthebam]

Aye, non-political.

I was annoyed when shoved from marginal Edinburgh South into solid Labour Edinburgh East years ago but it turned out well in the end 

Now there's talk of shoving my area back into Edinburgh South. Murray must really need those votes.

[lichtgilphead]

36 minutes ago, orfc said:

The Tories have nothing to do with it, the electoral commission are non-political but reflex actions are hard to suppress aren't they?

Erm, if you wish to concentrate on just one minor point in my post above and ignore the meat, please try to get your facts right.

1) There is no such thing as "the electoral commission". There are 4 - one for England, one for Northern Ireland, one for Scotland and one for Wales.

2) Labour are most likely to be disadvantaged by the changes - not the SNP

3) The Tories (not any of the electoral commissions) set the date of the register to be used to determine the new constituencies. They picked the electoral register of 1st December 2020. Totally coincidentally, this date was during the height of the coronavirus crisis & at a time when no elections were scheduled. In addition, students would be likely to be away from University at that time - all factors that would depress the Labour vote. 

4) If the 2017 election had been held under the proposed new constituencies, it was calculated that Theresa May would have had an absolute majority, rather than a hung parliament

At the time, Cat Smith, the Labour Shadow Cabinet Office minister said “The new boundaries will be dangerously unrepresentative of the current electorate. Choosing the electoral register of 1 December 2020 as the basis for drawing new boundaries is politically motivated. The December 2020 register will be heavily affected by Covid-19 as local councils will struggle to update electoral registers whilst dealing with this crisis.”

So, if you believe that the proposed changes are non-political, I'll take the chance to mention that I have a bridge for sale. Are you interested?

[Trogdor]

Hopefully Mhairi is taking a wee sabbatical before parachuting into Holyrood.

[Leith Green]

10 hours ago, tamthebam said:

Aye, non-political.

I was annoyed when shoved from marginal Edinburgh South into solid Labour Edinburgh East years ago but it turned out well in the end 

Now there's talk of shoving my area back into Edinburgh South. Murray must really need those votes.

Aye, I noticed that throwing a couple of smaller SNP wards in so they disappear - although not sure how much he really needs the votes, he gets loaned thousands by the tories in Morningside who like a twat in a union jack suit. 

[RuMoore]

Big shame for Unionists this one. She was good at playing to her gallery but extremely unconvincing for anyone that wasn't already convinced. 

Anyway. GBNF. 

 

[DublinMagyar]

Tweets from a 15 year old schoolgirl - enlightening!

[lichtgilphead]

34 minutes ago, orfc said:

Prob aye, but I didn't mention labour or SNP anyways

I know the Student Grant reputation, but no university starts it's Xmas break on the 1st December

Don't think time travel is a likely outcome of these changes

1) Given my previous postings on P'n'B, it's clear that I'm no fan of Labour, but I can tell when they are clearly being disadvantaged

2) Firstly, the Electoral Roll for 1st December isn't actually produced on that date, it is compiled in the weeks leading up to that date. Secondly, who mentioned holidays? The students weren't at Uni because of lockdown. Surely this is obvious stuff?

3) The fact that the proposed boundary changes benefit the Tories is demonstrated by the modelling carried out at the time. No-one is suggesting that the 2017 election result should be retrospectively overturned.

[lichtgilphead]

22 minutes ago, orfc said:

The students were trapped in halls and at their term time addresses actually because of lockdown. I thought this was obvious stuff

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54308329

So, we are agreed. They weren't at Uni, as they were trapped in their accommodation. Accordingly, they will have missed any voter registration drive in freshers week, especially (as I've  already mentioned) there was no election in the offing.

Most students move yearly. This requires them to register at a different termtime address on a regular basis, usually about October. Are you seriously suggesting that their main priority during lockdown was to register for the vote without any external prompting, just in case the Tories took the opportunity to retrospectively choose a particular date on which to base their gerrymandering review?

[RuMoore]

2 hours ago, DublinMagyar said:

Tweets from a 15 year old schoolgirl - enlightening!

I was just posting them as they're funny.  

Not meant to be a criticism, probably the most interesting thing she's ever done. 

Edited July 5, 2023 by RuMoore

[betting competition]

 

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

5 minutes ago, betting competition said:

 

Haha, a very rare bit of decent patter from Black there.

Credit when it’s due.

[FFCinthearea]

Black and Blackford will be given safe seats at the next Holyrood election and probably a ministerial post.   SNP has realised that they can't achieve anything in Westminster and clearly want their more competent politicians up here.

[MazzyStar]

5 hours ago, RuMoore said:

 

 

 

 

Big team found. 

[StellarHibee]

6 hours ago, RuMoore said:

Big shame for Unionists this one. She was good at playing to her gallery but extremely unconvincing for anyone that wasn't already convinced. 

Anyway. GBNF. 

 

Do you often look up the accounts of girls from when they were minors?

[RuMoore]

44 minutes ago, MazzyStar said:

Big team found. 

 

[lichtgilphead]

1 hour ago, orfc said:

So basically unless the previous year's students living there announced they'd moved, which you say they wouldn't given COVID and that, the electoral commission would still think roughly the same number of voters lived in the area. Thanks for clarifying

Your responses are getting more & more bizarre. The Electoral Commissions were instructed to base their decision on the number of registered voters in each constituency on December 1st 2020, not on "roughly the same number of voters" that were on previous electoral rolls.

In my own 4 years at University, I lived in 2 different Westminster constituencies, 3 different Regional Council constituencies and 4 different District Council constituencies. From memory, I was on the electoral roll at only two of these 4 addresses. This, of course, was in addition to remaining registered at my mother's address back in Arbroath.

Given my own experience, plus the additional impact of the Covid restrictions, and the fact that there were no elections due, can't you admit that a lot of students were not on the roll on the date the Tories selected?

 

 

 

[Trogdor]

7 hours ago, FFCinthearea said:

Black and Blackford will be given safe seats at the next Holyrood election and probably a ministerial post.   SNP has realised that they can't achieve anything in Westminster and clearly want their more competent politicians up here.

Blackford is an embarrassment and yesterday's man. I agree with Black but Blackford represents the worst of the party.

[ICTChris]

I see Angus MacNeill has had the whip removed for a week after clashing with the SNP chief whip, Brendan O’Hara. It is claimed that MacNeill threatened O’Hara.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-66112668
 

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

22 hours ago, RuMoore said:

Big shame for Unionists this one. She was good at playing to her gallery but extremely unconvincing for anyone that wasn't already convinced. 

Anyway. GBNF. 

 

I can relate more to Mhairi Black than a tory tbf. Maths is shite, its not coming home, im angry too and the nuns can indeed get to f**k.