Pie Of The Month Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Need updated 4, 6, 8 and 10 game form tables and how they relate to Dundee and Queen's Park's remaining fixtures after tonight's result IMO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Right, that’s one “contender” down and flailing about on the backstretch…time to do the job… 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagsfan57 Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 Surprise slip up by Raith particularly at home. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 (edited) Raith were never contenders for the title. I didn't even fancy them for the playoffs. Edited April 5, 2023 by jagfox 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CALDERON Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 Playoffs were a long shot, but we should have been in the position of 4 points behind with a game in hand. Cest la vie and all that I guess. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 1642050754188902401.mp4 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUAFC Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 21 hours ago, TxRover said: Right, that’s one “contender” down and flailing about on the backstretch…time to do the job… That's not a great photo if it is what I think it is...... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CALDERON Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 Surely this isn't any more than a 2 horse race? Difficult to see both Queens and Dundee dropping enough points for the other 2 to be genuine contenders. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 15 minutes ago, CALDERON said: Surely this isn't any more than a 2 horse race? Difficult to see both Queens and Dundee dropping enough points for the other 2 to be genuine contenders. 100% agree. No or little chance of Thistle making up 5 points on Queens Park over 4 matches, and that is assuming we win on Friday night, imo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 model now thinks 63 the tipping point for winning the league, Caley's form has them equal chance with Morton for playoff spot despite being a point behind, and the total for safety is looking up, whereas Cove getting another multi goal shafting has them very much looking down. Also in one of the 1000 sims this outcome happened, I would want more than 1000/1 on those Arbroath and Hamilton finishing totals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptfc. 22 Posted April 6, 2023 Author Share Posted April 6, 2023 17 minutes ago, Fuctifano said: model now thinks 63 the tipping point for winning the league, Caley's form has them equal chance with Morton for playoff spot despite being a point behind, and the total for safety is looking up, whereas Cove getting another multi goal shafting has them very much looking down. Also in one of the 1000 sims this outcome happened, I would want more than 1000/1 on those Arbroath and Hamilton finishing totals. What did you use to create the sim? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Belt Caley Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 27 minutes ago, Fuctifano said: model now thinks 63 the tipping point for winning the league, Caley's form has them equal chance with Morton for playoff spot despite being a point behind, and the total for safety is looking up, whereas Cove getting another multi goal shafting has them very much looking down. Also in one of the 1000 sims this outcome happened, I would want more than 1000/1 on those Arbroath and Hamilton finishing totals. I am amazed that with 6 games left to go we have a 20% chance of top 4 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 2 hours ago, Fuctifano said: model now thinks 63 the tipping point for winning the league, Caley's form has them equal chance with Morton for playoff spot despite being a point behind, and the total for safety is looking up, whereas Cove getting another multi goal shafting has them very much looking down. Also in one of the 1000 sims this outcome happened, I would want more than 1000/1 on those Arbroath and Hamilton finishing totals. So you’re saying there’s a chance…nah, this nag is off to the glue factory. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledLichtie Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 2 hours ago, Fuctifano said: model now thinks 63 the tipping point for winning the league, Caley's form has them equal chance with Morton for playoff spot despite being a point behind, and the total for safety is looking up, whereas Cove getting another multi goal shafting has them very much looking down. Also in one of the 1000 sims this outcome happened, I would want more than 1000/1 on those Arbroath and Hamilton finishing totals. Your model is so much more confident about Arbroath than I am! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highlandmagar Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 9 hours ago, jagfox said: 100% agree. No or little chance of Thistle making up 5 points on Queens Park over 4 matches, and that is assuming we win on Friday night, imo. If we win tomorrow night it would be 3 points over 4 matches. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaggyness Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Highlandmagar said: If we win tomorrow night it would be 3 points over 4 matches. Almost irrelevant what, if anything, we make up on QP if we're not making ground on Dundee 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oneteaminglasgow Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 Based on the model above saying that 63 is the tipping point for likely winning the league, that would mean us winning all of our remaining 5, and making it 6 wins in a row overall. I have no idea when we last had a run of form that good, but my guess would be that it’s some time ago. Even if we did it, we’d be looking for favours from elsewhere to stop Queens or Dundee getting more than that. I think that for us, and Ayr, the best we can hope for is catching either Dundee or Queens, but not both. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itzdrk Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 If I was a neutral looking in I'd be hoping Ayr and Partick win this weekend and Dundee lose. Mad tight then. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnnydun Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 18 minutes ago, itzdrk said: If I was a neutral looking in I'd be hoping Ayr and Partick win this weekend and Dundee lose. Mad tight then. If you were a neutral looking in you would be hoping that Dundee push on and win this league to keep all the DAB managers out of the Premiership. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G_&_T Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 21 minutes ago, itzdrk said: If I was a neutral looking in I'd be hoping Ayr and Partick win this weekend and Dundee lose. Mad tight then. I am massively biased in favour of West of Scotland clubs, and reckon this really will come down to Dundee and QP. They play each other in the last game of the season, and I'm hoping it goes right to the wire and Queen's Park get to use 'Greater' Hampden for it. Mouthwatering. Ideally I would have wanted Ayr or Morton to win it, but can't see past Dundee or QP. With five games to go, I just can't see both of them dropping enough points to let the others into the race: Saying that, QP could absolutely drop points tomorrow, whilst Arbroath have won their last two games, so I can see Dundee dropping points there. But Ayr and Thistle just haven't shown the consistency to might a challenge, IMHO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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