US Presidential Election 2024

[SandyCromarty]

1 minute ago, GordonS said:

Bookies don't just make money from accurately predicting events. They make money from attracting customers and limiting exposure, and their odds fall as money gets placed on one thing. Dumb money drives betting markets, which is how quite a few of us here made a killing off Republicans in 2020. 

I would pay no attention to bookies at all and watch polls instead.

Clearly not a poster that's familiar with betting.

[welshbairn]

12 minutes ago, SandyCromarty said:

Clearly not a poster that's familiar with betting.

Gordon speaks the truth, bookies are about balancing their book to guarantee a profit with overage whatever happens, not predictions, even more so with the polls so tight.

Edited Monday at 17:47 by welshbairn

[BFTD]

2 hours ago, DA Baracus said:

So why do you, seemingly, like Trump?

Now now. You know full well that Biggie can't honestly answer why he likes the open racist who tried to overthrow democracy without spending time on the naughty step again. That's why we get these occasional vague bouts of seethe that always avoid stating an outright position.

Meanwhile, his boy's getting sued yet again, this time for repeating his decades-long claim that New York should've just executed any old group of black men for a vicious murder, rather than actually trying to find the people responsible: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrjrd70286o

[doulikefish]

Deary me...bookies make money what ever the outcome as they normally run a 109% book IE 9% profit on any outcome and it's weight of money that moves the odds .So it's just the money chucked at trumpy that's moved the odds 

[Bigmouth Strikes Again]

17 minutes ago, BFTD said:

Now now. You know full well that Biggie can't honestly answer why he likes the open racist who tried to overthrow democracy without spending time on the naughty step again. That's why we get these occasional vague bouts of seethe that always avoid stating an outright position.

Meanwhile, his boy's getting sued yet again, this time for repeating his decades-long claim that New York should've just executed any old group of black men for a vicious murder, rather than actually trying to find the people responsible: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrjrd70286o

Dave, it's like talking to a brick wall, with you and your left wing mates on here, that's why I only pop in occasionaly for a laugh, when I'm totally bored.

Thank you.

[TxRover]

11 hours ago, GordonS said:

That's never been the case before so why now?

Pollsters have an interest in being accurate so that they can say to potential clients after the election "we're better than our competitors."

Some pollsters, true enough. However, there is a huge group of “pollsters” that have appeared in the past 12-16 years with a clear connection to the Republican Party and/or contributors. These pollsters flood the airs with polls that move their stories and interests.

8 hours ago, BFTD said:

Stop giving people an out for their decisions. Around half of eligible Americans don't even bother voting at all. Many of those voting for either candidate will have not bothered their arse at some point in the past; if they genuinely thought both were different shades of awful, and couldn't bring themselves to vote for someone who wouldn't win this time, they wouldn't vote at all.

The overwhelming reason for voting Trump appears to be that he'll get them, whoever they are to that individual voter, and he's wildly popular for that despite being an overt fascist. The primary reason for voting Biden, and now Harris, is that they aren't Trump. Kinda like the election we just had, although that's going to get much worse in the future.

Last couple of elections it’s been 4/10 not voting  or slight better than the UK. The overwhelming reason for voting for either candidate in the U.S. is, quite simply, political party affiliation (which tried to autocorrect to affliction, which doesn’t seem entirely wrong).

5 hours ago, Freedom Farter said:Even the New York Times has long raised eyebrows at Biden's treatment of Cuba. Back in 2021, "...the president has been tougher than Trump on the island's government". 

Regardless of the veracity of that conversation, that is the policy Biden has pursued, he has tried to arrange a one-way security pact with  the Saudis.

The U.S., under multiple Administrations, has been working to extract itself from the Middle East and pivot to Africa.

4 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

You could put a cigarette paper between the two candidates when it comes to Israel.

Or between any Democratic candidate and any Republican candidate in recent history.

Israel is close to Social Security as a no-go zone for politicians in the majority of the U.S.

4 hours ago, Caro-Kann said:

I'm actually quietly confident Harris will win so much so that those 6/4 odds look pretty attractive.
Whatever happens though Trump will still claim victory in the early hours of the morning prior to the big cities of the swing states declaring, then probably use the current betting odds to show how the election must have "again" been stolen.

3 hours ago, SandyCromarty said:

Yes the outsider odds are always attractive but like many others I've lost backing them.

All major Bookies have Trump odds on to win unfortunately.

2 hours ago, GordonS said:

Bookies don't just make money from accurately predicting events. They make money from attracting customers and limiting exposure, and their odds fall as money gets placed on one thing. Dumb money drives betting markets, which is how quite a few of us here made a killing off Republicans in 2020. 

I would pay no attention to bookies at all and watch polls instead.

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Gordon speaks the truth, bookies are about balancing their book to guarantee a profit with overage whatever happens, not predictions, even more so with the polls so tight.

Bookies are worthless in “predicting” this election, as they are for most elections.

 

Texas, first day of early voting today, massive turnout. In Texas, early voting turnout is skewed Democratic, so this should worry Cruz, even if the State is out of reach for Harris. My local early voting precinct had an hour long line to vote early. I live just down the road, so I’ll wait a few days for it to calm a bit.

[bigmarv]

2 hours ago, TxRover said:

 

Texas, first day of early voting today, massive turnout. In Texas, early voting turnout is skewed Democratic, so this should worry Cruz, even if the State is out of reach for Harris. My local early voting precinct had an hour long line to vote early. I live just down the road, so I’ll wait a few days for it to calm a bit.

I was in/out in five mins at the local high school here in the west Houston burbs. Pimps. 

[TxRover]

The Prepper ads are hitting now. Latest is for gold and silver wallet sized "cards" that can be divided into smaller pieces. I guess the theory is precious metals hold value, but each "card" is 62.204g, which is 2.194oz. The silver cards sell for $164.99 for 1 or $139.10 for 20. Given the spot price of silver, you're getting $74.68 worth of silver, and that's at nearly a 13 year high. The gold cards sell at $7099.99 per card, the same size, so that's $6,006.29 worth, again at a near all time high. So with the silver, you're pissing away between 46% and 55% of your 'investment....with the gold, it's only 15.4% pissed away. All patriots encouraged, mildly disappointed the back says "In God We Trust" and don't have Donald's face on them.

Now, use the code "PREPPER", and your loss drops to between 11% and 49.7%...

 

 

[BFTD]

1 hour ago, TxRover said:

The Prepper ads are hitting now. Latest is for gold and silver wallet sized "cards" that can be divided into smaller pieces. I guess the theory is precious metals hold value, but each "card" is 62.204g, which is 2.194oz. The silver cards sell for $164.99 for 1 or $139.10 for 20. Given the spot price of silver, you're getting $74.68 worth of silver, and that's at nearly a 13 year high. The gold cards sell at $7099.99 per card, the same size, so that's $6,006.29 worth, again at a near all time high. So with the silver, you're pissing away between 46% and 55% of your 'investment....with the gold, it's only 15.4% pissed away. All patriots encouraged, mildly disappointed the back says "In God We Trust" and don't have Donald's face on them.

Now, use the code "PREPPER", and your loss drops to between 11% and 49.7%...

 

 

That's hilarious. I wonder how they fantasise they'll be spending their 1.555g bars of silver after society collapses.

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, BFTD said:

That's hilarious. I wonder how they fantasise they'll be spending their 1.555g bars of silver after society collapses.

Even more fun is the "size". 7.776g is a little over a 0.25oz, 3.11g is 0.11oz, and 1.555 is just over 0.05oz. So in the U.S., values would be based on ounces of gold/silver, if it held any value at all, and those amount make a little sense, but could be much better. In Metric areas, the size in grams makes no sense at all.

Why they didn't decide to either make something like a 60g "bar" that could become 2x10g, 4x5g, and 8x2.5g...or a 56.7g(2 oz) bar that split into 4x7.9g/0.25oz,  and 10x2.8g/0.1oz is strange, unless there's some significant in the 62.204g size. It doesn't even divide any of the "standard gold bars evenly.

[BFTD]

21 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Even more fun is the "size". 7.776g is a little over a 0.25oz, 3.11g is 0.11oz, and 1.555 is just over 0.05oz. So in the U.S., values would be based on ounces of gold/silver, if it held any value at all, and those amount make a little sense, but could be much better. In Metric areas, the size in grams makes no sense at all.

Why they didn't decide to either make something like a 60g "bar" that could become 2x10g, 4x5g, and 8x2.5g...or a 56.7g(2 oz) bar that split into 4x7.9g/0.25oz,  and 10x2.8g/0.1oz is strange, unless there's some significant in the 62.204g size. It doesn't even divide any of the "standard gold bars evenly.

You should ask them. I can tell this is going to keep you up until you have an answer.

[Freedom Farter]

8 hours ago, TxRover said:

The U.S., under multiple Administrations, has been working to extract itself from the Middle East and pivot to Africa.

"Pivot to Asia" was the phrase. Not Africa. It meant a long term plan to contain China.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Asian_foreign_policy_of_the_Barack_Obama_administration

[Freedom Farter]

14 hours ago, bigmarv said:

Thats not very nice. Is that stuff allowed on this forum? 

I have linked you a definition of the term “genocide” below. 

Netanyahu is a nasty piece of work, a corrupt b*****d that should be in jail. Israel (under his rule) is being far too heavy handed for my liking, a disgrace actually. However, Israel is not engaged in a genocide, they are engaged in a heavy handed response to brutal terrorism. 

The stated goal of both Hamas and Hezbollah is a genocide of jews in Israel: 

https://www.britannica.com/topic/genocide
 

 

What is happening in Gaza fits that linked definition.

Netanyahu is a feature of zionism not a bug. Displacing a people from their land requires immense violence. 

The IDF has been entering freshly bombed areas with bulldozers to run over the injured on the ground, sometimes hundreds at a time, which the drivers of the bulldozers are now complaining has left them with psychological trauma over the cruelty of it. The IDF use double-tap strikes where a group of people, often children, are hit by a missile. A few minutes are waited until rescuers have amassed and at that point the IDF fires a second missile. There's even a specific age range of child that has been identified as being killed the most, those in the 6-12 bracket, as children smaller than that are grabbed and ran with by the parents then children older than that are fast enough. Dr Victoria Rose, a UK surgeon in Gaza, has documented it extensively. New York Times recently published the findings of US surgeons working in Gaza. They detailed the amount of bullets in the heads of toddlers, shot by IDF snipers, that they'd come across. 

There's the mass rape and torture of detained Palestinians at Sde Teiman. There's the IDF looting of Palestinian homes. The corpses of children littering the streets, often with their insides spilling out and appendages missing. The videos of Palestinians caught in fires from IDF airstrikes then burning alive. The starvation. The disease. The destruction of a society. 

We need to do better than just view that as "heavy-handed". 

The line about Hamas and Hezbollah needs scrutiny but this comment is too long already.

This is the equation some still fail to grasp:

Opposition to Trump, you assume, is because he's the powerful oppressing the powerless. Well there's a a transferable principle there which needs applied universally not selectively.

[Fullerene]

2 hours ago, TxRover said:

Even more fun is the "size". 7.776g is a little over a 0.25oz, 3.11g is 0.11oz, and 1.555 is just over 0.05oz. So in the U.S., values would be based on ounces of gold/silver, if it held any value at all, and those amount make a little sense, but could be much better. In Metric areas, the size in grams makes no sense at all.

Why they didn't decide to either make something like a 60g "bar" that could become 2x10g, 4x5g, and 8x2.5g...or a 56.7g(2 oz) bar that split into 4x7.9g/0.25oz,  and 10x2.8g/0.1oz is strange, unless there's some significant in the 62.204g size. It doesn't even divide any of the "standard gold bars evenly.

7.776g is the equivalent of 120 grains of gold.

HTH

[carpetmonster]

There's no point in making a Citizen Kane for Elmo, it's way too f**king obvious that his Rosebud is a trampoline

 

 

[Leith Green]

6 minutes ago, carpetmonster said:

There's no point in making a Citizen Kane for Elmo, it's way too f**king obvious that his Rosebud is a trampoline

 

 

It seems bonkers that if Trump is elected his administration would be criticising the Russian interference in the Moldova EU referendum..............but that some of the same tactics (in effect paying voters) which almost turned Moldova toward Russia are being enacted by the big baby Musk.

I dont know what is next for this election, but every time I think we have reached peak crazy, the Trump campaign come up with something else.

[A Diamond For Me]

2 hours ago, Leith Green said:

It seems bonkers that if Trump is elected his administration would be criticising the Russian interference in the Moldova EU referendum..............but that some of the same tactics (in effect paying voters) which almost turned Moldova toward Russia are being enacted by the big baby Musk.

I dont know what is next for this election, but every time I think we have reached peak crazy, the Trump campaign come up with something else.

 

Would they, though?

[bigmarv]

6 hours ago, Freedom Farter said:

What is happening in Gaza fits that linked definition.

Netanyahu is a feature of zionism not a bug. Displacing a people from their land requires immense violence. 

The IDF has been entering freshly bombed areas with bulldozers to run over the injured on the ground, sometimes hundreds at a time, which the drivers of the bulldozers are now complaining has left them with psychological trauma over the cruelty of it. The IDF use double-tap strikes where a group of people, often children, are hit by a missile. A few minutes are waited until rescuers have amassed and at that point the IDF fires a second missile. There's even a specific age range of child that has been identified as being killed the most, those in the 6-12 bracket, as children smaller than that are grabbed and ran with by the parents then children older than that are fast enough. Dr Victoria Rose, a UK surgeon in Gaza, has documented it extensively. New York Times recently published the findings of US surgeons working in Gaza. They detailed the amount of bullets in the heads of toddlers, shot by IDF snipers, that they'd come across. 

There's the mass rape and torture of detained Palestinians at Sde Teiman. There's the IDF looting of Palestinian homes. The corpses of children littering the streets, often with their insides spilling out and appendages missing. The videos of Palestinians caught in fires from IDF airstrikes then burning alive. The starvation. The disease. The destruction of a society. 

We need to do better than just view that as "heavy-handed". 

The line about Hamas and Hezbollah needs scrutiny but this comment is too long already.

This is the equation some still fail to grasp:

Opposition to Trump, you assume, is because he's the powerful oppressing the powerless. Well there's a a transferable principle there which needs applied universally not selectively.

I voted for Harris yesterday. Who should I have voted for? 

[Freedom Farter]

37 minutes ago, bigmarv said:

I voted for Harris yesterday. Who should I have voted for? 

You put forward a bad interpretation of the events you were commenting on. I replied to that. Not to who you voted for.

[bigmarv]

20 minutes ago, Freedom Farter said:

You put forward a bad interpretation of the events you were commenting on. I replied to that. Not to who you voted for.

This thread is about the 2024 US Presidential election. 

The situation in Israel/Gaza is terrible but it has no bearing whatsoever on the lives of me and my family or anyone we know. Same goes for 99.99% of American voters. 

Even if it did, Harris is by far the best option for a (relatively) peaceful resolution over the “finish the job” convicted criminal guy. 

To be clear, I’m no supporter of a Netanyahu led Israel.