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US Presidential Election 2024


scottsdad

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Whatever the Dems do at this stage is a very high-risk strategy; stick with Biden and they risk a defeat of monumental proportions across all the main chambers of Government; roll the dice and they need to quickly find a candidate with enough political capital, perceived honesty, charisma and strength of character to fire up and unite the base.

There's not exactly a queue of folk lining up in that latter category, but sometimes it is indeed a case of 'cometh the hour, cometh the man, or indeed woman'.  Surely it's better to risk going down swinging than to allow the misguided determination and crass stubbornness of the Biden family and the Jim Clyburns of this world to plunge America and by association the rest of the world into a dark abyss.

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3 hours ago, GordonS said:

The Governors of Michigan or Pennsylvania might be better options, I don't know enough. All it might take is one electrifying speech or great political moment for someone to stand out from the crowd. But it has to happen right now, because if they don't have a new candidate tied up before the convention, the only way of replacing Biden would be if he has a health crisis. 

Funnily enough I lumped a score of Gretchen Whitmer being the candidate about 2 years ago, so if it was her I'd be in for a nice wee windfall.

I think Harris is the only possibly candidate that doesn't end up with others fighting over the spot though.

As for her popularity, do people even know her well enough to have an opinion? I'm not convinced that voters in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin or whatever would refuse to vote for her because of her record as a prosecutor. I don't think the average voter gives a shit about that.

Like you say, one big speech could be enough to get people on board.

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7 hours ago, houston_bud said:

I remember her doing well in the debates against Pence flour years back.

I only remember one, and she was awful, looked terrified and she completely froze. She was only saved from total ignominy by being outstaged by a fly on Pence's hair. There's talk of a debate between her and Vance which would give her a chance to redeem herself.

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3 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I only remember one, and she was awful, looked terrified and she completely froze. She was only saved from total ignominy by being outstaged by a fly on Pence's hair. There's talk of a debate between her and Vance which would give her a chance to redeem herself.

Possible that im misremembering. What sticks out in my mind was her 'Vice President, I'm talking' line, when Pence was trying to speak over her.

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24 minutes ago, houston_bud said:

Funnily enough I lumped a score of Gretchen Whitmer being the candidate about 2 years ago, so if it was her I'd be in for a nice wee windfall.

I think Harris is the only possibly candidate that doesn't end up with others fighting over the spot though.

As for her popularity, do people even know her well enough to have an opinion? I'm not convinced that voters in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin or whatever would refuse to vote for her because of her record as a prosecutor. I don't think the average voter gives a shit about that.

Like you say, one big speech could be enough to get people on board.

There is another possible but she says she won't stand.

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11 hours ago, tamthebam said:

fitfinlay.jpg.783755b24df6a83cf65a9a559a79305e.jpg

I suspect Fit Finlay is in favour of Irish unification and I saw him in Weston Super Mare once.. does this influence me? Not really. 

Good to know. But did Sinn Fein have him appear at their conference and tear off his shirt to the raucous applause of the attendees? 

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13 hours ago, scottsdad said:

Biden got the most votes of any US president, ever, in 2020.

And Trump got more votes than any previous candidate, winner or loser. It's not that surprising when the number of eligible voters has been increasing each election.

10 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Trump would be furious as he'd disappear from TV.

Not sure about that. He might be furious because of the reasons, but he purposefully let Biden have the limelight between the debate and assassination attempt.

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2 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

And Trump got more votes than any previous candidate, winner or loser. It's not that surprising when the number of eligible voters has been increasing each election.

It had the highest percentage turnout of any national election since 1900.

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1 hour ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

There is another possible but she says she won't stand.

 

1 hour ago, houston_bud said:

Michelle Obama? 

I hope to f**k that she’s willing to make a big sacrifice and change her mind.

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40 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

And Trump got more votes than any previous candidate, winner or loser. It's not that surprising when the number of eligible voters has been increasing each election.

The number of eligible voters increased by 8.3 million but the number of votes increased by 23 million. Turnout jumped from 59.2% of eligible voters to 66.9%, the highest level ever recorded by that measure.

It was a deeply polarising election and brought out people who rarely or never voted. A lot of them came out to vote against Trump - it's not like Biden is a historically popular politician - and that will happen again. Trump has a hard ceiling on his vote and unifies opposition to him. Contrary to all the rhetoric about Trump having the election sewn up following the shooting, his average poll lead has increased by just 1%. 

Screenshot 2024-07-21 at 11.46.30.png

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I don't pay much attention to US politics, but occasionally it creeps in to more general publications I subscribe to. One was saying that it was Nader who lost the election for Gore, and Kennedy could lose the election for Trump. Kennedy being batshit insane and Trump thinking he had all those voters covered.

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Mayor Pete is probably the most personable and decent candidate but a significant number of Americans will likely never vote for him. I'm guessing the right are worried it will be Newsome since Musk et al are really hitting him over the Californian "don't tell patents automatically if a kid wants to be called by a different gender" law. Whitmer would be a solid choice, especially with Shapiro on the ticket (in any order) but replacing Harris on the ticket might depress black turnout and those undecided who think it's only fair that it's her "turn" or who voted in the primary for Biden essentially on a Biden/Harris platform. I'm now beginning to think it'll either be Biden or Harris, and in both cases it's difficult (although not impossible) to see a path to victory. Basically relies on Biden not falling over or making any more hideous gaffes, making a strong and coherent convention speech and saying "Vance want a national abortion ban" over and over and over again to get suburban females to vote Blue.

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23 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

I don't pay much attention to US politics, but occasionally it creeps in to more general publications I subscribe to. One was saying that it was Nader who lost the election for Gore, and Kennedy could lose the election for Trump. Kennedy being batshit insane and Trump thinking he had all those voters covered.

I can see Kennedy dropping out late on and calling on his supporters to vote for Trump.

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I see that Trump is claiming that he took a bullet for democracy. Isn't that a bit of a stretch?

It kind of implies that he was in some way a willing participant.  Actually he had no willing participation at all. It was done "to" him. To me, someone "taking a bullet" would be someone throwing themselves in front of a discharging gun to save someone else. ( As if Trump would ever do that!)

It could be argued that given his certain knowledge that he wouldn't survive his attempt to kill Trump, it was the shooter who actually "took" several bullets for what he believed in, however twisted his views were.

Nothing like a bit of controversy!

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What happens if the Democrats want to select a candidate besides Harris? Do the registered party members get to vote on it again?

My friend's just telling me the Dems cannot use the electoral funds unless Harris stands, as that money was given for the Biden/Harris nomination. Does anybody know the answer to this?

 

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