Early 2023/24 predictions

[Dunning1874]

I say this every year, but this season is harder to predict than ever. There are at least seven teams in this division you can put in any order and no one could reasonably question it. As ever though I'm guessing before the League Cup starts to not be a shitebag.

Picking Dundee United to win the league is boring as f**k, but I think their transfer business has actually been good. There was a lot of murmuring about why they're signing solid Championship players: that's exactly what they needed to do this summer, rather than going full McKinnon/Laszlo and signing a load of useless Dutch ringers in the hope of striking gold. The supposedly underwhelming signings of Holt, Docherty and Grimshaw all get a game for every other team in the division. If Watt and Middleton are both staying, a front three of those two and Chalmers pisses all over the rest of the division's strongest attacking options. Assuming the new goalkeeper has functioning limbs unlike the A-League goalkeeper of the season, they're going to have comfortably the strongest XI in the division.

I think Bullen gets a lot of unfair stick: if he was as much of a dud as he's made out to be Ayr wouldn't have finished second.  What is a fair criticism though is that they were more reliant on one player than any other team, and assuming Akinyemi does go at some point this summer (today possibly) that could leave them in bother. Eventually the marquee centre forward signing from the English non-leagues is going to be a Hartley's Falkirk level of dud rather than an Adeloye/Akinyemi gem. If that happens this summer with Amartey it could lead to a collapse, while they still have guff full-backs and Sean McGinty. Central midfield is still quality though, and if Mathie has somehow done it again with the centre forward or Akinyemi doesn't go they're right in the top four mix.

Queen's Park are possibly the most difficult of these teams to predict. An excellent season overall last year, they've made impressive signings already and we know they have the financial clout with more recruitment to come to make more big signings. On the flipside they already went downhill massively after Murray left, they'll probably not have Savoury for much of the season either and they have a total unknown quantity as a manager. Great pedigree as a coach but that doesn't always translate to managing a team effectively. Although I reckon they are going to be very good again, they're one of the teams with the most question marks of that playoff chasing group of seven.

Rumours of Partick's demise appear to have been greatly exaggerated. It's just been a case of a few of the out of contract highest earners leaving, who were probably all going to be moving on anyway after not being promoted, with proper replacements coming in on not quite as big wages as those leaving rather than resorting to throwing untested teenagers straight into the team. They've also retained some excellent Championship players with two quality full backs and Graham still scoring double figures every season. Even at that though, very few teams at this level can lose four players the calibre of Holt, Docherty, Turner & Tiffoney in one summer without going backwards the following season.  This is a huge test of Doolan to adjust to getting weaker and pick the squad up after the playoff capitulation.

Of that group of seven playoff contenders Morton are a lot of people's choice to fall away to 8th or worse, and I can fully see the arguments for that: smallest budget, least depth, best player in Grimshaw away, no upgrades on last season. I can see a fairly strong counter argument to that though in continuity. Keeping nine of the strongest XI from the second half of the last season (we'd effectively lost Strapp already in January to injury) is a massive positive. We only took 8 points from the first 8 games last season, with the squad nowhere near complete when the league started and we pretty much needed a whole new team to gel over the first quarter. Now we have the core of the team staying together, that could be a platform to have a much stronger start and if we do that we're in a good position to beat last season's points total, which would already get you in the top four more often than not. This is heavily dependent on actually signing a right back before the league starts though.

Inverness were massively derailed by an injury crisis last season but despite basically having 2 months of the season being a total write-off from mid October, they only missed the playoffs by two points. They've lost some big players in Allardice, Henderson and Deas, but they have an incredible knack of getting results out of average as f**k players anyway. If they avoid such a ridiculous injury crisis again and with the Scottish Cup money enabling them to continue making a six figure loss for another few years they should be fine for a top four challenge.

It seems since Raith got promoted a lot of struggles they've had have been down to lacking a proper number nine. The one season they actually had two proper options there they made the playoffs, otherwise they've been dependent on only one competent player who can play there or trying to turn someone like Gullan into a proper striker when that clearly isn't his game. If Jack Hamilton stays fit all season he should go a long way to solving that problem and that alone makes them look a considerably more threatening attacking force, before considering Mullin being a good signing as well. I'm still really not sure about that defence though.

Predicting Arbroath for the bottom two is undeniably as boring as putting Dundee United first, they've heard all this before. Ultimately though that squad just isn't any stronger than last season as it stands and while he's reined it in a bit Campbell still seems set on persisting with the unearthing diamonds strategy, which only uncovered a load of shite last season. Even where he's going back to picking up known quantities, it's a player like McIntosh who you can probably put in the Donnelly/Hilson bracket of just not quite being good enough for this division. As that defence gets older and doesn't get strengthened the foundation of the success they've had over time in this division is getting weaker. It's not at all unrealistic to see them safe in mid-table, but on paper they're simply not as good as any of that group of seven I'm having above them.

Dunfermline have a lot of momentum and it's important to remember that Cove being guff last season was a real outlier: generally the champions of League One walk straight into the top half of the table. There is a question of how much they actually needed to strengthen though. They've basically just made the loans they had last season permanent and added Michael O'Halloran, who looked utterly finished in this division last season. When you've won the league at such a canter with plenty of players with Championship experience that lack of strengthening shouldn't give many worries about going straight back down, but I do have to question how likely a proper playoff challenge is unless they have some more quality signings to come. While some of the younger players probably are going to turn into good Championship players as well, Dunfermline have been here before the last time they were promoted after strolling to the title with some players who were great in League One just not handling the step up.

There's the huge caveat with Airdrie that there's a lot of business still to be done, but as it stands they simply haven't strengthened and - unlike Dunfermline who were 21 points ahead of them and have players who've more recently done well in the Championship - until that happens you can't really see them finishing anywhere other than 10th. Two or three good signings can completely change that outlook and they've still got time to make them before the season starts, but as it stands their only additions to a solid League One squad have been a centre forward who was also in League One last season (though has shown he can be a decent Championship player in the past if used correctly) and a few teenagers who've hardly played first team football before. Some of the existing squad will inevitably rise to the challenge and handle the step up well, but the likelihood is that more of them won't. If they actually go into the season with the likes of ATS and Telfer playing regularly then it's hard to see how they can survive.

So then:

1. Dundee United
2. Queen's Park
3. Inverness Caledonian Thistle
4. Morton
5. Raith
6. Partick
7. Dunfermline
8. Ayr
9. Arbroath
10. Airdrie

2nd-8th is total guesswork really, you could flip those seven round and it would be an equally reasonable prediction. Those sides can all realistically target the top four and any of them would be very disappointed to end up in the bottom three, but someone has to.

[Mr November]

33 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

There's the huge caveat with Airdrie that there's a lot of business still to be done, but as it stands they simply haven't strengthened and - unlike Dunfermline who were 21 points ahead of them and have players who've more recently done well in the Championship - until that happens you can't really see them finishing anywhere other than 10th. Two or three good signings can completely change that outlook and they've still got time to make them before the season starts, but as it stands their only additions to a solid League One squad have been a centre forward who was also in League One last season (though has shown he can be a decent Championship player in the past if used correctly) and a few teenagers who've hardly played first team football before. Some of the existing squad will inevitably rise to the challenge and handle the step up well, but the likelihood is that more of them won't. If they actually go into the season with the likes of ATS and Telfer playing regularly then it's hard to see how they can survive.

A great write up overall and hard to disagree with most of it.

On Airdrie, I think most of our fans are expecting a centre back and left back to come in but I doubt we'll see much else in addition to that. As you say, if those are good signings then it could change things but we are rightly favourites to go back down. I'd take 8th right now and optimistically I think we'll be enough of a threat to cause teams problems but a lot depends on the quality of our defensive signings. 

[San Starko Rover]

2 hours ago, Dunning1874 said:

I say this every year, but this season is harder to predict than ever. There are at least seven teams in this division you can put in any order and no one could reasonably question it. As ever though I'm guessing before the League Cup starts to not be a shitebag.

Picking Dundee United to win the league is boring as f**k, but I think their transfer business has actually been good. There was a lot of murmuring about why they're signing solid Championship players: that's exactly what they needed to do this summer, rather than going full McKinnon/Laszlo and signing a load of useless Dutch ringers in the hope of striking gold. The supposedly underwhelming signings of Holt, Docherty and Grimshaw all get a game for every other team in the division. If Watt and Middleton are both staying, a front three of those two and Chalmers pisses all over the rest of the division's strongest attacking options. Assuming the new goalkeeper has functioning limbs unlike the A-League goalkeeper of the season, they're going to have comfortably the strongest XI in the division.

I think Bullen gets a lot of unfair stick: if he was as much of a dud as he's made out to be Ayr wouldn't have finished second.  What is a fair criticism though is that they were more reliant on one player than any other team, and assuming Akinyemi does go at some point this summer (today possibly) that could leave them in bother. Eventually the marquee centre forward signing from the English non-leagues is going to be a Hartley's Falkirk level of dud rather than an Adeloye/Akinyemi gem. If that happens this summer with Amartey it could lead to a collapse, while they still have guff full-backs and Sean McGinty. Central midfield is still quality though, and if Mathie has somehow done it again with the centre forward or Akinyemi doesn't go they're right in the top four mix.

Queen's Park are possibly the most difficult of these teams to predict. An excellent season overall last year, they've made impressive signings already and we know they have the financial clout with more recruitment to come to make more big signings. On the flipside they already went downhill massively after Murray left, they'll probably not have Savoury for much of the season either and they have a total unknown quantity as a manager. Great pedigree as a coach but that doesn't always translate to managing a team effectively. Although I reckon they are going to be very good again, they're one of the teams with the most question marks of that playoff chasing group of seven.

Rumours of Partick's demise appear to have been greatly exaggerated. It's just been a case of a few of the out of contract highest earners leaving, who were probably all going to be moving on anyway after not being promoted, with proper replacements coming in on not quite as big wages as those leaving rather than resorting to throwing untested teenagers straight into the team. They've also retained some excellent Championship players with two quality full backs and Graham still scoring double figures every season. Even at that though, very few teams at this level can lose four players the calibre of Holt, Docherty, Turner & Tiffoney in one summer without going backwards the following season.  This is a huge test of Doolan to adjust to getting weaker and pick the squad up after the playoff capitulation.

Of that group of seven playoff contenders Morton are a lot of people's choice to fall away to 8th or worse, and I can fully see the arguments for that: smallest budget, least depth, best player in Grimshaw away, no upgrades on last season. I can see a fairly strong counter argument to that though in continuity. Keeping nine of the strongest XI from the second half of the last season (we'd effectively lost Strapp already in January to injury) is a massive positive. We only took 8 points from the first 8 games last season, with the squad nowhere near complete when the league started and we pretty much needed a whole new team to gel over the first quarter. Now we have the core of the team staying together, that could be a platform to have a much stronger start and if we do that we're in a good position to beat last season's points total, which would already get you in the top four more often than not. This is heavily dependent on actually signing a right back before the league starts though.

Inverness were massively derailed by an injury crisis last season but despite basically having 2 months of the season being a total write-off from mid October, they only missed the playoffs by two points. They've lost some big players in Allardice, Henderson and Deas, but they have an incredible knack of getting results out of average as f**k players anyway. If they avoid such a ridiculous injury crisis again and with the Scottish Cup money enabling them to continue making a six figure loss for another few years they should be fine for a top four challenge.

It seems since Raith got promoted a lot of struggles they've had have been down to lacking a proper number nine. The one season they actually had two proper options there they made the playoffs, otherwise they've been dependent on only one competent player who can play there or trying to turn someone like Gullan into a proper striker when that clearly isn't his game. If Jack Hamilton stays fit all season he should go a long way to solving that problem and that alone makes them look a considerably more threatening attacking force, before considering Mullin being a good signing as well. I'm still really not sure about that defence though.

Predicting Arbroath for the bottom two is undeniably as boring as putting Dundee United first, they've heard all this before. Ultimately though that squad just isn't any stronger than last season as it stands and while he's reined it in a bit Campbell still seems set on persisting with the unearthing diamonds strategy, which only uncovered a load of shite last season. Even where he's going back to picking up known quantities, it's a player like McIntosh who you can probably put in the Donnelly/Hilson bracket of just not quite being good enough for this division. As that defence gets older and doesn't get strengthened the foundation of the success they've had over time in this division is getting weaker. It's not at all unrealistic to see them safe in mid-table, but on paper they're simply not as good as any of that group of seven I'm having above them.

Dunfermline have a lot of momentum and it's important to remember that Cove being guff last season was a real outlier: generally the champions of League One walk straight into the top half of the table. There is a question of how much they actually needed to strengthen though. They've basically just made the loans they had last season permanent and added Michael O'Halloran, who looked utterly finished in this division last season. When you've won the league at such a canter with plenty of players with Championship experience that lack of strengthening shouldn't give many worries about going straight back down, but I do have to question how likely a proper playoff challenge is unless they have some more quality signings to come. While some of the younger players probably are going to turn into good Championship players as well, Dunfermline have been here before the last time they were promoted after strolling to the title with some players who were great in League One just not handling the step up.

There's the huge caveat with Airdrie that there's a lot of business still to be done, but as it stands they simply haven't strengthened and - unlike Dunfermline who were 21 points ahead of them and have players who've more recently done well in the Championship - until that happens you can't really see them finishing anywhere other than 10th. Two or three good signings can completely change that outlook and they've still got time to make them before the season starts, but as it stands their only additions to a solid League One squad have been a centre forward who was also in League One last season (though has shown he can be a decent Championship player in the past if used correctly) and a few teenagers who've hardly played first team football before. Some of the existing squad will inevitably rise to the challenge and handle the step up well, but the likelihood is that more of them won't. If they actually go into the season with the likes of ATS and Telfer playing regularly then it's hard to see how they can survive.

So then:

1. Dundee United
2. Queen's Park
3. Inverness Caledonian Thistle
4. Morton
5. Raith
6. Partick
7. Dunfermline
8. Ayr
9. Arbroath
10. Airdrie

2nd-8th is total guesswork really, you could flip those seven round and it would be an equally reasonable prediction. Those sides can all realistically target the top four and any of them would be very disappointed to end up in the bottom three, but someone has to.

I think you’re on the wrong site, this is far too well though out and reasoned for P&B. 
pretty hard to disagree with you on most things.  Arguably the hardest league to predict in years with so little between teams. 

[edinburghhonestman]

2 hours ago, Dunning1874 said:

I say this every year, but this season is harder to predict than ever. There are at least seven teams in this division you can put in any order and no one could reasonably question it. As ever though I'm guessing before the League Cup starts to not be a shitebag.

Picking Dundee United to win the league is boring as f**k, but I think their transfer business has actually been good. There was a lot of murmuring about why they're signing solid Championship players: that's exactly what they needed to do this summer, rather than going full McKinnon/Laszlo and signing a load of useless Dutch ringers in the hope of striking gold. The supposedly underwhelming signings of Holt, Docherty and Grimshaw all get a game for every other team in the division. If Watt and Middleton are both staying, a front three of those two and Chalmers pisses all over the rest of the division's strongest attacking options. Assuming the new goalkeeper has functioning limbs unlike the A-League goalkeeper of the season, they're going to have comfortably the strongest XI in the division.

I think Bullen gets a lot of unfair stick: if he was as much of a dud as he's made out to be Ayr wouldn't have finished second.  What is a fair criticism though is that they were more reliant on one player than any other team, and assuming Akinyemi does go at some point this summer (today possibly) that could leave them in bother. Eventually the marquee centre forward signing from the English non-leagues is going to be a Hartley's Falkirk level of dud rather than an Adeloye/Akinyemi gem. If that happens this summer with Amartey it could lead to a collapse, while they still have guff full-backs and Sean McGinty. Central midfield is still quality though, and if Mathie has somehow done it again with the centre forward or Akinyemi doesn't go they're right in the top four mix.

Queen's Park are possibly the most difficult of these teams to predict. An excellent season overall last year, they've made impressive signings already and we know they have the financial clout with more recruitment to come to make more big signings. On the flipside they already went downhill massively after Murray left, they'll probably not have Savoury for much of the season either and they have a total unknown quantity as a manager. Great pedigree as a coach but that doesn't always translate to managing a team effectively. Although I reckon they are going to be very good again, they're one of the teams with the most question marks of that playoff chasing group of seven.

Rumours of Partick's demise appear to have been greatly exaggerated. It's just been a case of a few of the out of contract highest earners leaving, who were probably all going to be moving on anyway after not being promoted, with proper replacements coming in on not quite as big wages as those leaving rather than resorting to throwing untested teenagers straight into the team. They've also retained some excellent Championship players with two quality full backs and Graham still scoring double figures every season. Even at that though, very few teams at this level can lose four players the calibre of Holt, Docherty, Turner & Tiffoney in one summer without going backwards the following season.  This is a huge test of Doolan to adjust to getting weaker and pick the squad up after the playoff capitulation.

Of that group of seven playoff contenders Morton are a lot of people's choice to fall away to 8th or worse, and I can fully see the arguments for that: smallest budget, least depth, best player in Grimshaw away, no upgrades on last season. I can see a fairly strong counter argument to that though in continuity. Keeping nine of the strongest XI from the second half of the last season (we'd effectively lost Strapp already in January to injury) is a massive positive. We only took 8 points from the first 8 games last season, with the squad nowhere near complete when the league started and we pretty much needed a whole new team to gel over the first quarter. Now we have the core of the team staying together, that could be a platform to have a much stronger start and if we do that we're in a good position to beat last season's points total, which would already get you in the top four more often than not. This is heavily dependent on actually signing a right back before the league starts though.

Inverness were massively derailed by an injury crisis last season but despite basically having 2 months of the season being a total write-off from mid October, they only missed the playoffs by two points. They've lost some big players in Allardice, Henderson and Deas, but they have an incredible knack of getting results out of average as f**k players anyway. If they avoid such a ridiculous injury crisis again and with the Scottish Cup money enabling them to continue making a six figure loss for another few years they should be fine for a top four challenge.

It seems since Raith got promoted a lot of struggles they've had have been down to lacking a proper number nine. The one season they actually had two proper options there they made the playoffs, otherwise they've been dependent on only one competent player who can play there or trying to turn someone like Gullan into a proper striker when that clearly isn't his game. If Jack Hamilton stays fit all season he should go a long way to solving that problem and that alone makes them look a considerably more threatening attacking force, before considering Mullin being a good signing as well. I'm still really not sure about that defence though.

Predicting Arbroath for the bottom two is undeniably as boring as putting Dundee United first, they've heard all this before. Ultimately though that squad just isn't any stronger than last season as it stands and while he's reined it in a bit Campbell still seems set on persisting with the unearthing diamonds strategy, which only uncovered a load of shite last season. Even where he's going back to picking up known quantities, it's a player like McIntosh who you can probably put in the Donnelly/Hilson bracket of just not quite being good enough for this division. As that defence gets older and doesn't get strengthened the foundation of the success they've had over time in this division is getting weaker. It's not at all unrealistic to see them safe in mid-table, but on paper they're simply not as good as any of that group of seven I'm having above them.

Dunfermline have a lot of momentum and it's important to remember that Cove being guff last season was a real outlier: generally the champions of League One walk straight into the top half of the table. There is a question of how much they actually needed to strengthen though. They've basically just made the loans they had last season permanent and added Michael O'Halloran, who looked utterly finished in this division last season. When you've won the league at such a canter with plenty of players with Championship experience that lack of strengthening shouldn't give many worries about going straight back down, but I do have to question how likely a proper playoff challenge is unless they have some more quality signings to come. While some of the younger players probably are going to turn into good Championship players as well, Dunfermline have been here before the last time they were promoted after strolling to the title with some players who were great in League One just not handling the step up.

There's the huge caveat with Airdrie that there's a lot of business still to be done, but as it stands they simply haven't strengthened and - unlike Dunfermline who were 21 points ahead of them and have players who've more recently done well in the Championship - until that happens you can't really see them finishing anywhere other than 10th. Two or three good signings can completely change that outlook and they've still got time to make them before the season starts, but as it stands their only additions to a solid League One squad have been a centre forward who was also in League One last season (though has shown he can be a decent Championship player in the past if used correctly) and a few teenagers who've hardly played first team football before. Some of the existing squad will inevitably rise to the challenge and handle the step up well, but the likelihood is that more of them won't. If they actually go into the season with the likes of ATS and Telfer playing regularly then it's hard to see how they can survive.

So then:

1. Dundee United
2. Queen's Park
3. Inverness Caledonian Thistle
4. Morton
5. Raith
6. Partick
7. Dunfermline
8. Ayr
9. Arbroath
10. Airdrie

2nd-8th is total guesswork really, you could flip those seven round and it would be an equally reasonable prediction. Those sides can all realistically target the top four and any of them would be very disappointed to end up in the bottom three, but someone has to.

Good post. Hard to disagree with most of that. I'm not convinced about Dunfermline, though. This is a team with Joe Chalmers in midfield.

As for Ayr, a lot depends on how we replace Akinyemi and what, if anything we do about full back. 

[itzdrk]

On 15/06/2023 at 11:41, itzdrk said:

Based on nothing other than vibes:

1. Raith

2. Queens Park

3. Dundee United

4. Greenock

5. Dunfermline 

6. Partick

7. Ayr 

8. Arbroath

9. Inverness

10. Airdrie 

Update:

1. Dundee United

2. Queens Park

3. Raith

4. Partick

5. Dunfermline 

6. Greenock

7. Inverness

8. Ayr 

9. Airdrie 

10. Arbroath

[ClydeTon]

On 17/06/2023 at 23:48, ClydeTon said:

1. Dundee Utd

2. Ayr Utd

3. Morton

4. Dunfermline

5. Queens Park

6. Partick

7. Raith

8. Inverness

9. Arbroath

10. Airdrie

Only really confident of Airdrie finishing last. Always a possibility ICT and Partick could go bust by opening day, but we'll find out soon enough.

F**king hate predicting this league.

With transfers here there and everywhere, and this revised prediction focuses on Dipo leaving Ayr and Partick seemingly losing half of their team, this is my revised prediction. Probably won't be the last one.

1. Dundee Utd

Big Club, plenty of money, loads of season tickets sold. I imagine there will be a strong title challenge from elsewhere. as always but Dundee Utd, at least should, be comfortable winners.

2. Queens Park

Everyone's nightmare, one would argue. Spent plenty of money and brought players in on loan from top clubs, albeit they mainly reside in Youth and B Teams.

Playing at Hampden could have an interesting impact on their season.

3. Morton

Still with the core of last season's near-playoffs side, and with Boyd and Mullen, in my eyes, already seeming to be improvements over Miller and Schwake (worth noting that Boyd is still catching up to match fitness, so we haven't seen him at his best yet), I think we'll be fine. O'Connor at RB seemed to work well against St. Mirren and Broadfoot played well at CB.

Need a cover RB/CB, and a second GK. After that, the Loan and Free Agents markets will, hopefully, give us what we need to go forward.

4. Dunfermline

Don't really have a reason for Dunfermline up here. Just think they'll do well.

5. Raith

Seemingly, Raith have built a half-decent squad, fairly fast. Looking at their squad list in the pinned thread (which I'm guessing is probably outdated as well) and their website's list (which I also guess is outdated), they'll do quite well. Even if some players have moved on, it looks solid.

6. ICT

I think ICT will, again, have a bit of a late revival of sorts and push towards the playoffs at the end of the season. Just don't think they'll quite make it, and will probably be out of contention with a few games to go.

7. Partick

Still not got a f**king clue if Partick are rich or poor. One person/website says one thing, the next says another. Eitherway, losing the amount of players they have, they'll probably take a bit of time to get up to speed. That might cost them.

8. Ayr Utd

Supposedly spending the grand total of f**k all on players, and losing their main striker to York, I'm putting Ayr down for a mid-table season. Don't think they'll quite be relegation battlers but not playoffs either. A bit like Raith usually are.

9. Arbroath

Wouldn't mind being surprised. As long as we get 3 points against them.

10.  Airdrie

Compared to most other sides in this league, Airdrie just don't cut it for me.

 

[Zanetti]

17 minutes ago, ClydeTon said:

2. Queens Park

Everyone's nightmare, one would argue. Spent plenty of money and brought players in on loan from top clubs, albeit they mainly reside in Youth and B Teams.

It doesn't change your point but just to clarify, we've only signed one player on loan so far, Hepburn from Bayern. The rest have been permanent signings, although I'm sure there will likely be a couple more.

[ClydeTon]

35 minutes ago, Zanetti said:

It doesn't change your point but just to clarify, we've only signed one player on loan so far, Hepburn from Bayern. The rest have been permanent signings, although I'm sure there will likely be a couple more.

Could have sworn I had seen another one. "A bayern player in on loan" it is, then. Still a huge statement from QP, tbf.

[Zanetti]

20 minutes ago, ClydeTon said:

Could have sworn I had seen another one. "A bayern player in on loan" it is, then. Still a huge statement from QP, tbf.

Fair, he's looks quite tricky so far in pre season. We've tapped heavily into the loan market over the past couple of years, probably too much from a continuity point of view so I don't think we'll see quite as many this season.

[HoBNob]

4 hours ago, Dunning1874 said:

, Dunfermline have been here before the last time they were promoted after strolling to the title with some players who were great in League One just not handling the step up.

 

A very good write up but I'm not sure I agree with this at all. Last time we came up we had a very large squad turnover, in the summer window we brought in a ton of players(Wikipedia says 9) and had quite a large squad turnover in general, quite crucially we also lost our best and talisman from the previous season. What players were you referring to who were great in league one who didn't handle the step up? 

Despite all that we finished fifth, 

2 hours ago, edinburghhonestman said:

Good post. Hard to disagree with most of that. I'm not convinced about Dunfermline, though. This is a team with Joe Chalmers in midfield.

As for Ayr, a lot depends on how we replace Akinyemi and what, if anything we do about full back. 

Different players look better under different teams and better managers. You've got McGinty at the back, Morton have Muirhead and Gillespie who were previously pretty rank. 

Don't get me wrong, I've seen the bad of Joe Chalmers under Yogi Hughes, however he was much improved under McPake, with the most assists in the league last year. 

[Stephen Malkmus]

The Caley to piss the league.

[Stephen Malkmus]

And that's The Malkmus Guarantee™.

[ecto]

United to win it, us to finish 7th, the rest, who knows 

[Mr Toon]

8 hours ago, Dunning1874 said:

I say this every year, but this season is harder to predict than ever. There are at least seven teams in this division you can put in any order and no one could reasonably question it. As ever though I'm guessing before the League Cup starts to not be a shitebag.

Picking Dundee United to win the league is boring as f**k, but I think their transfer business has actually been good. There was a lot of murmuring about why they're signing solid Championship players: that's exactly what they needed to do this summer, rather than going full McKinnon/Laszlo and signing a load of useless Dutch ringers in the hope of striking gold. The supposedly underwhelming signings of Holt, Docherty and Grimshaw all get a game for every other team in the division. If Watt and Middleton are both staying, a front three of those two and Chalmers pisses all over the rest of the division's strongest attacking options. Assuming the new goalkeeper has functioning limbs unlike the A-League goalkeeper of the season, they're going to have comfortably the strongest XI in the division.

I think Bullen gets a lot of unfair stick: if he was as much of a dud as he's made out to be Ayr wouldn't have finished second.  What is a fair criticism though is that they were more reliant on one player than any other team, and assuming Akinyemi does go at some point this summer (today possibly) that could leave them in bother. Eventually the marquee centre forward signing from the English non-leagues is going to be a Hartley's Falkirk level of dud rather than an Adeloye/Akinyemi gem. If that happens this summer with Amartey it could lead to a collapse, while they still have guff full-backs and Sean McGinty. Central midfield is still quality though, and if Mathie has somehow done it again with the centre forward or Akinyemi doesn't go they're right in the top four mix.

Queen's Park are possibly the most difficult of these teams to predict. An excellent season overall last year, they've made impressive signings already and we know they have the financial clout with more recruitment to come to make more big signings. On the flipside they already went downhill massively after Murray left, they'll probably not have Savoury for much of the season either and they have a total unknown quantity as a manager. Great pedigree as a coach but that doesn't always translate to managing a team effectively. Although I reckon they are going to be very good again, they're one of the teams with the most question marks of that playoff chasing group of seven.

Rumours of Partick's demise appear to have been greatly exaggerated. It's just been a case of a few of the out of contract highest earners leaving, who were probably all going to be moving on anyway after not being promoted, with proper replacements coming in on not quite as big wages as those leaving rather than resorting to throwing untested teenagers straight into the team. They've also retained some excellent Championship players with two quality full backs and Graham still scoring double figures every season. Even at that though, very few teams at this level can lose four players the calibre of Holt, Docherty, Turner & Tiffoney in one summer without going backwards the following season.  This is a huge test of Doolan to adjust to getting weaker and pick the squad up after the playoff capitulation.

Of that group of seven playoff contenders Morton are a lot of people's choice to fall away to 8th or worse, and I can fully see the arguments for that: smallest budget, least depth, best player in Grimshaw away, no upgrades on last season. I can see a fairly strong counter argument to that though in continuity. Keeping nine of the strongest XI from the second half of the last season (we'd effectively lost Strapp already in January to injury) is a massive positive. We only took 8 points from the first 8 games last season, with the squad nowhere near complete when the league started and we pretty much needed a whole new team to gel over the first quarter. Now we have the core of the team staying together, that could be a platform to have a much stronger start and if we do that we're in a good position to beat last season's points total, which would already get you in the top four more often than not. This is heavily dependent on actually signing a right back before the league starts though.

Inverness were massively derailed by an injury crisis last season but despite basically having 2 months of the season being a total write-off from mid October, they only missed the playoffs by two points. They've lost some big players in Allardice, Henderson and Deas, but they have an incredible knack of getting results out of average as f**k players anyway. If they avoid such a ridiculous injury crisis again and with the Scottish Cup money enabling them to continue making a six figure loss for another few years they should be fine for a top four challenge.

It seems since Raith got promoted a lot of struggles they've had have been down to lacking a proper number nine. The one season they actually had two proper options there they made the playoffs, otherwise they've been dependent on only one competent player who can play there or trying to turn someone like Gullan into a proper striker when that clearly isn't his game. If Jack Hamilton stays fit all season he should go a long way to solving that problem and that alone makes them look a considerably more threatening attacking force, before considering Mullin being a good signing as well. I'm still really not sure about that defence though.

Predicting Arbroath for the bottom two is undeniably as boring as putting Dundee United first, they've heard all this before. Ultimately though that squad just isn't any stronger than last season as it stands and while he's reined it in a bit Campbell still seems set on persisting with the unearthing diamonds strategy, which only uncovered a load of shite last season. Even where he's going back to picking up known quantities, it's a player like McIntosh who you can probably put in the Donnelly/Hilson bracket of just not quite being good enough for this division. As that defence gets older and doesn't get strengthened the foundation of the success they've had over time in this division is getting weaker. It's not at all unrealistic to see them safe in mid-table, but on paper they're simply not as good as any of that group of seven I'm having above them.

Dunfermline have a lot of momentum and it's important to remember that Cove being guff last season was a real outlier: generally the champions of League One walk straight into the top half of the table. There is a question of how much they actually needed to strengthen though. They've basically just made the loans they had last season permanent and added Michael O'Halloran, who looked utterly finished in this division last season. When you've won the league at such a canter with plenty of players with Championship experience that lack of strengthening shouldn't give many worries about going straight back down, but I do have to question how likely a proper playoff challenge is unless they have some more quality signings to come. While some of the younger players probably are going to turn into good Championship players as well, Dunfermline have been here before the last time they were promoted after strolling to the title with some players who were great in League One just not handling the step up.

There's the huge caveat with Airdrie that there's a lot of business still to be done, but as it stands they simply haven't strengthened and - unlike Dunfermline who were 21 points ahead of them and have players who've more recently done well in the Championship - until that happens you can't really see them finishing anywhere other than 10th. Two or three good signings can completely change that outlook and they've still got time to make them before the season starts, but as it stands their only additions to a solid League One squad have been a centre forward who was also in League One last season (though has shown he can be a decent Championship player in the past if used correctly) and a few teenagers who've hardly played first team football before. Some of the existing squad will inevitably rise to the challenge and handle the step up well, but the likelihood is that more of them won't. If they actually go into the season with the likes of ATS and Telfer playing regularly then it's hard to see how they can survive.

So then:

1. Dundee United
2. Queen's Park
3. Inverness Caledonian Thistle
4. Morton
5. Raith
6. Partick
7. Dunfermline
8. Ayr
9. Arbroath
10. Airdrie

2nd-8th is total guesswork really, you could flip those seven round and it would be an equally reasonable prediction. Those sides can all realistically target the top four and any of them would be very disappointed to end up in the bottom three, but someone has to.

Some students have got a PhD for a less well presented argument. 

[Dunning1874]

9 hours ago, HoBNob said:

A very good write up but I'm not sure I agree with this at all. Last time we came up we had a very large squad turnover, in the summer window we brought in a ton of players(Wikipedia says 9) and had quite a large squad turnover in general, quite crucially we also lost our best and talisman from the previous season. What players were you referring to who were great in league one who didn't handle the step up? 

Despite all that we finished fifth, 

Different players look better under different teams and better managers. You've got McGinty at the back, Morton have Muirhead and Gillespie who were previously pretty rank. 

Don't get me wrong, I've seen the bad of Joe Chalmers under Yogi Hughes, however he was much improved under McPake, with the most assists in the league last year. 

Aye that's fair, I've not worded that very well on Dunfermline. It's not that you didn't strengthen that summer, just that some of the players who'd been regulars in League One didn't last long in the Championship such as Richards-Everton, or were just fine at this level rather than being standouts like Talbot for all that he hung about as first choice a few more seasons. Obviously El-Bakhtaoui left that summer and took a very different path to the Championship but I'd say he's also a great example of how it doesn't always work out at this level for players who looked untouchable in League One as well.

[Shandon Par]

Pars have still to sign a striker. Replacing O’Hara and Todorov with one person who will score more was/is the main priority. O’Halloran will have to play out of his skin to keeps his place once young KRH is fit by end September or so.

Last season we started out playing a pretty brutal form of football but it worked and gave us the points and confidence to build on. Wouldn’t be surprised to see us be a bit more like that early in the season.

Surprised someone like Hibs or Motherwell haven’t come in for Lewis McCann and it would be no surprise to see Matty Todd get a move to Italy or Germany. He’s like a cross between John McGinn and Scott McTominay. 

Matty Todd will have gone under the radar for most Championship fans. He was used as a utility player by Hughes/Grant and totally unremarkable. He caught the imagination last season as when McPake came to East End to talk terms he bumped into the figure and asked who he was and what he was doing (this was weeks before preseason). The runner introduced himself as Matty Todd and explained that the relegation shambles was a disgrace and that he had to get super fit to improve himself and the team. McPake was bowled over by his attitude and he’s a sort of poster boy for this team. 

[ptfc. 22]

Think Dunfermline will have a season much closer to us in 21 /22 then cove in 22/23

[Andriy_Parmolenko]

6 hours ago, Dunning1874 said:

Obviously El-Bakhtaoui left that summer and took a very different path to the Championship but I'd say he's also a great example of how it doesn't always work out at this level

Still irks me that went how it did, we signed a lot of bodies and played a totally different style of football in the Champ. El-Bak went to Dundee and played a graveyard shift every game in the premiership, and effectively destroyed his development. He was never the same or in a team that suited him again, including when he came back. Often wonder what might have been if we'd have been able to hold that side together a bit more. Your initial write up is an excellent read btw.

As for my predictions, boring and otherwise quite uninformed. Utd will almost undoubtedly win the league, possibly at a canter, possibly under more stress than necessary, but absolutely 1st. Everything else is a bit of a free-for-all.
Dunfermline good for mid-table I reckon, although KRH out for the first 2 1/2-3 months will have an impact I'm sure.

  1. Dundee United
 2. Inverness Caledonian Thistle
 3. Raith Rovers
 4. Morton
 5. Dunfermline Athletic
 6. Partick Thistle
 7. Queens Park
 8. Airdrie
 9. Ayr United
10. Arbroath

[BMG Spider]

23 hours ago, Mr.Blue said:

Not a 'star' but its been mentioned on here that QP are giving Paton well over 1k a week. Can't remember what the exact figure was but it blew Ayrs offer out of the water.

Surprisingly, mentioned on here doesn’t necessarily equal accurate 

[Mr.Blue]

5 hours ago, BMG Spider said:

Surprisingly, mentioned on here doesn’t necessarily equal accurate 

Happy to take the source at face value rather than that of any deluded Queens Park fans.