Euro 2024 Draw (Saturday 2nd December 5pm)

[Bully Wee Villa]

Do any bookies offer odds on the draw? Would like to bet on us drawing Italy, as that would really piss me off.

[welshbairn]

16 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

Do any bookies offer odds on the draw? Would like to bet on us drawing Italy, as that would really piss me off.

I doubt it, every team and combination would have identical odds. 

[BFTD]

2 hours ago, vince sinclair said:

Take France, chances are they win all 3.  Let us fight it out with other 2 (Albania / play off winners)  

Unless they also draw Greece, of course!

Italy and Germany are easily worse than they've ever been in my lifetime; Germany are arguably poorer than any time since their first World Cup win seventy years ago. Putting aside defeatism, we ought to be comfortable drawing either of them - it won't be easy, but our team should have a decent chance of picking up points in those games.

This could be a fun tournament - only France and Portugal are showing the form you'd expect from realistic challengers, so there's surely a reasonable chance that we might see a new winner.

[Virtual Insanity]

1 hour ago, 2426255 said:

Seems we'll have a fight on our hands to qualify from whatever group we get - even as one of the 4 best third place teams. All other things being equal im expecting we'll have to be close to our max performance levels for at least two of the games, maybe three.

I don't see why. We're better than everyone in pot 4 right now bar Italy. We're better than most teams in pot 2. In almost all draw permutations this Scotland team should be making R16. 

[Hendricks]

1 hour ago, Virtual Insanity said:

I don't see why. We're better than everyone in pot 4 right now bar Italy. We're better than most teams in pot 2. In almost all draw permutations this Scotland team should be making R16. 

I agree. I think it could be such an exciting and interesting group. I just hope we can avoid the 2 favourites in Pot 1 (France and England) and Italy in Pot 4. For once just give us a break and make us hugely competitive in 2 if not all 3 games. On any given day there is not a team in Pot 2 or Pot 4 (possibly Italy aside - I watched the game the other night and they should have been 3 up on Ukraine in half an hour,  that we can't beat. In fact there are a number I'd seriously fancy us against. 

The reality is though that we need to turn up and do ourselves justice. We need to have as close as possible to everyone available and we need to play with the hunger, attitude, desire and concentration of the likes of the Spain and Denmark home wins. Do that and we'll get out the groups for the first time ever. 

[Willie adie]

20 hours ago, Hendricks said:

Honestly if you handed me a deal for us to avoid France, England and Italy right now I'd accept anything else. 

Switzerland seem to always flatter to deceive always qualify yet do nothing of note when they get there

[Hendricks]

12 minutes ago, Willie adie said:

Switzerland seem to always flatter to deceive always qualify yet do nothing of note when they get there

 

They've been really struggling and are very fortunate that they were in a piss poor group. In their 10 qualifying games they won 4, beating Israel and Belarus once each and Andorra twice. They failed to beat Romania or Kosovo home or away! 

[jagfox]

Is there a set path yet I.e. Team 1 will play Team 3?

Aside from the teams drawn when we play them will be crucial. 

I'd like Germany but I wouldn't want them in the competition for example. 

Que sera sera...

[PSJ.84]

6 minutes ago, jagfox said:

Is there a set path yet I.e. Team 1 will play Team 3?

Aside from the teams drawn when we play them will be crucial. 

I'd like Germany but I wouldn't want them in the competition for example. 

Que sera sera...

It’s Wikipedia so who knows how reliable  but - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024 

 

Germany play A2 in the opening game, then A3 in their second and finally A4. 

[jagfox]

8 minutes ago, PSJ.84 said:

It’s Wikipedia so who knows how reliable  but - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024 

 

Germany play A2 in the opening game, then A3 in their second and finally A4. 

Cool, can we assume we would be Team 3 in that scenario? I guess it might not as they wouldn't want the top teams playing in the opening round of games?

[Brian Graham’s Lovely Hair]

10 minutes ago, jagfox said:

Cool, can we assume we would be Team 3 in that scenario? I guess it might not as they wouldn't want the top teams playing in the opening round of games?

Team number in the group isn’t tied to the pot, a team will be drawn out for a group then their number will be drawn, so we could be any number. 

[TopDon]

21 hours ago, Autistisches Nilpferd said:

England

Albania

Slovenia

Greece

 

France

Denmark

Scotland

Italy

This will definitely happen

[Hendricks]

1 hour ago, Brian Graham’s Lovely Hair said:

Team number in the group isn’t tied to the pot, a team will be drawn out for a group then their number will be drawn, so we could be any number. 

 

Correct. Position in the group is drawn in addition to teams in the group.

https://www.uefa.com/euro2024/news/0283-18997db50f4d-1618eabb47d5-1000--uefa-euro-2024-final-tournament-draw-all-you-need-to-know/

[BFTD]

So what's our record like against the seeds?

(W-D-L)

Germany: 4-5-8 (0-2-6 competitive)
Portugal: 4-3-8 (2-2-4 competitive)
France: 8-0-9 (3-0-2 competitive)
Spain: 4-4-7 (3-1-6 competitive)
Belgium: 4-3-13 (2-2-10 competitive)
England: 41-26-49 (1-2-3 competitive)

Strangely enough, tournament favourites France are undeniably our best option, going on past results. Spain and England would probably be the next best along with Portugal, but we've not played them in a consequential game since the traumatising 5-0 defeat in 1993.

Avoiding Belgium might be a good thing, considering they've beaten us in our last six consequential ties, and we've not beaten them in seven attempts since 1987. Like many teams, we've never beaten Germany in a game that mattered.

Doesn't necessarily mean a lot in a one-off game, but interesting nonetheless. I'll do the other pots over the weekend if I have time, or someone else doesn't get to it first!

[Sugar_Army]

12 hours ago, forameus said:

I've no idea (well, actually, I do have an idea, given it's almost certainly just down to name) why everyone seems so terrified of Italy.  They're down in pot 4 for a reason, and although I'd still prefer, say, the Path C playoffs option than them, I wouldn't be averse to drawing them.  They've been to as many tournaments as we have since 2018, and although the one they did go to they won, they've shat the bed getting to two World Cups.  They're not to be overly feared in the way you'd fear France or similar.  

Anyway, using that handy wee app someone put forward, it's just mugged me right off by suggesting Italy are amongst the hardest draw (based on ELO).

Think if we got that, we'd stand a decent chance of getting something from Denmark or Italy, but could also see us getting papped out with nothing.  When you're hoping for a "better" nation to f**k up, not the best position to be in (especially when we're well capable of doing similar).

The "hardest draw based on market value" replaces France with England (curiously with the same "value" as France).  I'm not as afraid of England as some, but again it's basically a question of which England turns up.  They're well capable of turning in an utterly turgid mess of a performance (their November has them up there with Belgium in the "talented but tedious" stakes), but they proved at Hampden that if they want to, they could hold us at arms length and win comfortably.  

Onto the draws we definitely won't get, and based on ELO, it's this one

I would definitely take that.  Germany are an awkward one, as they'll be at a home tournament, and surely can't be as bad as they have been, but...well they have been utter shite.  Seems like the sort of perfect storm moment for them to have a real shitemare and start another reinvention that ends with them winning the 2030 World Cup.  We should be able to beat Albania to secure 3rd, and Poland seem to be on the slide down while we go in the other direction.  2nd definitely not beyond us, and if all the stars align, that's probably a group we could actually win..

 

This would be an interesting group if we turn up and play like we can.

All are teams we could get a result against on the day but getting tickets would be a nightmare.   

 

On the flip side...extra spice...

Germany v Poland would be fought like a derby with a lot of Poles in the ground.

Germany v Albania would probably have a lot of crazy Albanians in the stadium which might affect the result.

Poland v Albania would be a resumption of the grudge matches from the qualifiers.

We could just slide through to the next round while everybody was looking the other way.

[Monkey Tennis]

13 hours ago, Willie adie said:

Switzerland seem to always flatter to deceive always qualify yet do nothing of note when they get there

In each of the last 3 World Cups and each of the last 2 Euros, ie the last 5 tournaments, Switzerland have made it through the groups to the knock-out stages.

They also eliminated France in said knock-out stages of Euro 2020, despite being 3-1 down as they entered the 80th minute.

It's a level of "doing nothing of note" we can but dream of.

Edited November 23, 2023 by Monkey Tennis

[Monkey Tennis]

8 hours ago, 2426255 said:

Seems we'll have a fight on our hands to qualify from whatever group we get - even as one of the 4 best third place teams. All other things being equal im expecting we'll have to be close to our max performance levels for at least two of the games, maybe three.

There's a decent chance that one win would get us through.

[Bully Wee Villa]

3 hours ago, Monkey Tennis said:

There's a decent chance that one win would get us through.

Looking at results from the last two Euros, the last three African Cups of Nations, the last Asian Cup and the 2015 and 2019 Women's World Cup, each examples of 24 team competitions under a three points for a win format, three points was always the cut-off. In each case third place teams with three points qualified and with the sole of exception of AFCON 2019 at least one third place team with three points was eliminated.

Summary, we get four points we are almost certainly through, two points almost certainly out and three points and we'd need a decent goal difference. Might be worth avoiding France.

Edited November 23, 2023 by Bully Wee Villa

[nate]

5 hours ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

Looking at results from the last two Euros, the last three African Cups of Nations, the last Asian Cup and the 2015 and 2019 Women's World Cup, each examples of 24 team competitions under a three points for a win format, three points was always the cut-off. In each case third place teams with three points qualified and with the sole of exception of AFCON 2019 at least one third place team with three points was eliminated.

Summary, we get four points we are almost certainly through, two points almost certainly out and three points and we'd need a decent goal difference. Might be worth avoiding France.

Good post, but it’s worth pointing out that both Bulgaria and Uruguay have reached the knockout stages of a 24-team tournament (WC 86)with a miserly 2 points. It seems a bit ridiculous but that’s what you get with an expanded (I.e diluted) Euros where nearly 50% of the original entrants (discounting the absolute bottom feeders) qualify for the Finals, and a whopping two-thirds of these qualifiers make it to R16. We’ve never had a better chance to make it through, given this is essentially a kind of Euros Lite. Fans of nations with respectable qualification records who didn’t make it to Germany must be fuming (hello Ireland)

[Lurkst]

10 hours ago, Hendricks said:

Correct. Position in the group is drawn in addition to teams in the group.

https://www.uefa.com/euro2024/news/0283-18997db50f4d-1618eabb47d5-1000--uefa-euro-2024-final-tournament-draw-all-you-need-to-know/

For those who are booked to go to Berlin, D3 would be the team to be as they are the only one to have two group games there.