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Relegation thread - who's going down?


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Just now, ecto said:

Probably, Caley down with us

Sorry fella, you’ll be missed if for no other reason than being the best away day in the league.  Tutties Neuk pre match, Marcos on the Shore post match.   And I always liked Gayfield.  Still one of the proper old grounds, makes me miss Broomfield 

 

best of luck for the rest of the season 

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9 minutes ago, FLDiamond said:

It WAY too early to discuss the play off spot and obviously Dunfermline, ICT, QP, Airdrie are in that mix.   That could go down the the final day and it probably will.   
 

but Arbroath are down.   It’s over for them.  And I think they’ll be cannon fodder over the next few weeks 

 

I think they'd probably need to win at least 6 of their remaining 11 games, maybe a couple of draws too. And given they've won 1 of their last 18 league games that does look pretty much impossible. It's so hard for any side to go on a winning run in this league, let alone a side with Arbroath's issues.

I don't agree they'll be cannon fodder though, I'd never be very confident of us picking up 3 points at Gayfield... and they'll still take points off a few teams.

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Second half tonight was the first time I’ve really thought we’re going down. Like, proper sick in my stomach dread. Arbroath showed talent and determination that we simply do not have. Hard to see how we’ll stay above them. 

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Genuinely could be any of the bottom 6 in the relegation spots, I think Arbroath will finish in the bottom 2 but not writing them off yet.

Ayr have shipped the most goals Arbroath aside and Airdrie have scored the least. Both characteristics aren't great this far into the season.

Anyone has the bad luck that we have had regarding injuries in the last quarter then it will be curtains, the teams with momentum now need to keep it going for as long as they can.

The 40 point mark normally signifies safety but I'm not sure if will this year.

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7 minutes ago, 101 said:

Genuinely could be any of the bottom 6 in the relegation spots, I think Arbroath will finish in the bottom 2 but not writing them off yet.

Ayr have shipped the most goals Arbroath aside and Airdrie have scored the least. Both characteristics aren't great this far into the season.

Anyone has the bad luck that we have had regarding injuries in the last quarter then it will be curtains, the teams with momentum now need to keep it going for as long as they can.

The 40 point mark normally signifies safety but I'm not sure if will this year.

Morton got too many points on the board I think.

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Arbroath aside, not sure anyone could confidently call it. Bonkers league and form seems wildly inconsistent so anything’s possible….

Edit - please make it Caley…🙏

Edited by Highland Exile
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We're decent going forward at times (not today of course) which has been able to drag us through games but our defense is so soft. We give away a cheap goal or two every game. Not much Brown can do about that and while we've without a doubt improved under him I worry that failing to properly address the issues in defense, both in the summer and in January, will see this go right to the wire for us. Still fairly confident we'll finish about 7th although I'd take 8th.

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1 hour ago, Rob1885 said:

Morton got too many points on the board I think.

Tend to agree, as a comparable run to our first ten games (injury addled; gubbins - rings a bell with today's display at least) would still put us on 45 points. That said, I think it might actually take 45 points to be certain of safety unless one of the teams in the pack below spins out. 

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Recalculating based upon season long average, which won't hold, but gives an idea:

1 DU - 75

2 RR - 72

3 PT - 53

4 GM - 49

5 Airdrie - 48

6 Ayr - 43

7 QP - 41 (on GD)

8 Pars - 41

9 ICT - 40

10 Arbroath - 31

 

That would be the highest ninth place total since 2013-2014 (40 points by Cowdenbeath, placing behind Alloa on GD) and 2006-2007 (40 points by Airdrie), and would fall short of the record 42 points in 2008-2009 (Airdrie again). Everything from third to seventh looks to finish below long term average, while first is about average, second is well above, as is eighth to tenth.

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