101 Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Just now, Binos said: Wherever reform win will go on a list of places never to visit That won’t be any great hardship 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eez-eh Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 4 minutes ago, Mark Connolly said: The lowest ever turnout in that constituency. Previous low was 55.3% in 2010 58% in 2019 as well. Good thing we have some extra barriers now to stop the rampant issue that was voter fraud! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moses1924 Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 20 minutes ago, STFU_Donny said: I’m amazed Aberdeen South is going conservative. Waiting for the results. Likewise I just cant see my constituency (Stirling) going Conservative either but we'll see soon enough... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee-Bey Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Chefs kiss to have the loathsome Leadsome and snakey Streeting fawning over 'are preshuss democracy' before cutting to Sunderland with an utter dogshit turnout. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salvo Montalbano Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 50 minutes ago, cyderspaceman said: I would lie if asked. As I would to any pollster who knocked on my door. Just wait for the fckn result! They don't "ask" anyone - They give you another ballot and you fill it out in secret, so that the anonymous nature is maintained. Most people who do it repeat their vote although I'd imagine a few won't for jolly japes purposes. 33 minutes ago, 101 said: Feel the exit poll in Scotland will be a bit off and favour away from families with kids who have done postal votes. So if it’s mainly older people voting in person that could explain the Tory vote holding up in the exit poll in Scotland Yes, I wonder if they've made some sort of correction for a certain percentage of postal votes but maybe haven't added the extra that we'll have up here due to the school holidays. 23 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said: Btw while we're talking exit poll scepticism - my eyebrow rises even more with this prediction of Reform on 13 and Greens on 4... I can see both getting a few but those just seem to defy sense? Greens are defending in Brighton Pavillion and I think are favourites in two others (Bristol Central being one, can't remember the other) while they were also polling well in a fourth. It's possible but I think Brighton and Bristol will be their lot. As for Farage's lot... who knows? When you see some of the stuff posted online, you can see why they'd do well. They had an old guy the other day saying that the navy should shoot at the boats crossing the channel, and that "that's what everyone is thinking". There are some proper cesspits down south. I thought initially 2 or 3 for Reform but they have played a blinder by talking about the polling and trying to make out it's some kind of grassroots movement. 13 seems high but it might be about right if you look at Essex, the Midlands and the North of England. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoon Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 1 minute ago, AyrAtlanta said: I think folk shouldn’t overreact at the Reform vote share. It’s more or less being seen as the party of the ‘f**k the big two’ vote which will be the prevailing opinion of a lot of folk who just don’t look into the policies of who they’re voting for. Most people voting for them will not be far-right, they’ll just see funny relatable man* that likes pints and union flags. * The opinion of this poster may wildly vary from this. I think this may have been the case a few years, but not now. The next election will be won on who deports more coloured people. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherrif John Bunnell Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Imagine living in a shitehole like Sunderland and thinking that brown people are the ones to blame for the place being fiucked? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Just now, Hedgecutter said: Biggest Labour win overall forecast yet there was a swing from Labour to Reform in a safe Labour seat? The majority is actually larger than it was last time around, weirdly. Reform have supplanted the Tories. If this were to happen in the south of England, the Tories would be pretty much entirely wiped out. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrpaddyx Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Not exactly a definitive source but Dunfermline is turning red according to my in laws. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaz Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 2 minutes ago, AyrAtlanta said: I think folk shouldn’t overreact at the Reform vote share. It’s more or less being seen as the party of the ‘f**k the big two’ vote which will be the prevailing opinion of a lot of folk who just don’t look into the policies of who they’re voting for. Most people voting for them will not be far-right, they’ll just see funny relatable man* that likes pints and union flags. * The opinion of this poster may wildly vary from this. No. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Malkmus Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Myrie and Kuennsberg are proper weirdos like 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eez-eh Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 When’s the first Scotland result predicted? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaz Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Just now, eez-eh said: When’s the first Scotland result predicted? We're out mate, shat it against Hungary and Switzerland 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HibeeJibee Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Just now, eez-eh said: When’s the first Scotland result predicted? 1:30am 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambomo Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 1 minute ago, Self-raising Lazarus said: It's deeper than that though. Living down here you see it same as up north, but unlike in scotland these people go for right parties rather than left. The center and center left have totally abandoned the working class. In fairness there is no real centre option is there? Still, you can’t forgive people voting for those who come out with the racist, holocaust denying shit that Reform have done over the weeks. No amount of disenchantment with politics justifies that, there are plenty of poor areas who have not gone that way tbf. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrewDon Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 13 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said: I can only see 7 SNP MPs there, but the UK exit poll has SNP on 10? Gordon, for example, is down as a 58% chance of Tory and 42% chance of SNP. So I wonder if the graphic represents that (i.e. the parties with the biggest percentage chance in each individual constituency), but whether the overall model has something built in nationally for particularly close calls, especially when it is projecting a collapse like that. That could be total nonsense, though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Binos Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 3 minutes ago, moses1924 said: Likewise I just cant see my constituency (Stirling) going Conservative either but we'll see soon enough... Short memory 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullerene Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 4 minutes ago, Binos said: Wherever reform win will go on a list of places never to visit Don't know about that. Might make a change for people who normally go to the zoo. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunning1874 Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 20 minutes ago, carpetmonster said: Was there any mention of independents in the exit poll? I noticed the bookies had shifted Jumbly Crumblings down to odds-on for Islington North about lunchtime GMT. They have Islington North in the too close to call category but presumably it was called for Corbyn in the initial numbers, as there were 19 others with 18 of them being Northern Ireland and Rochdale (Galloway's seat) being 99% likely for Labour. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JS_FFC Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 Just now, DrewDon said: Gordon, for example, is down as a 58% chance of Tory and 42% chance of SNP. So I wonder if the graphic represents that (i.e. the parties with the biggest percentage chance in each individual constituency), but whether the overall model has something built in nationally for particularly close calls, especially when it is projecting a collapse like that. That could be total nonsense, though. This is exactly what’s going on 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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