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Early 2024/25 predictions


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On 29/05/2024 at 11:35, AllanJM said:

It's going to be a hell of a league next season.  Most seasons you look at the championship and think everyone can beat everyone else on the day.  Next season looks like this will be the case more than ever.

As someone who mostly drives to away games with my son (8) rather than making a day of it, I also think it's a great league for going to away games.  For me it ranges from a 40 mile round trip to Falkirk to a 140 mile round trip to Ayr (with home games being in the middle at a 90 mile round trip) so I'm aiming to get to most.

I'm feeling pretty optimistic about Rovers and believe Andy Barrowman and the board when they say we're just getting started.  That has already been backed up this week with the signing of Fordyce who is a very decent addition at this level.

My prediction will undoubtedly change as more signings are made by each of the clubs, but here's a very early stab at a prediction:

1. Raith Rovers

2. Partick Thistle

3. Dunfermline

4. Livingston

5. Falkirk

6. Ayr United

7. Queens Park

8. Airdrie

9. Hamilton

10. Morton

I'm relatively confident on the top 2 and bottom 2 (although places could easily be switched in both cases and I wouldn't be surprised if all 4 were completely wrong) but the middle 6 is bloody hard to predict. 

Going to go for an updated, pre-league cup prediction now that teams have made some more signings.  Will probably do another after the league cup and before the championship starts as I'll no doubt change my mind again by then.

 

1. Rovers - sticking with us for now as our defence looks like it's going top be really solid.  Would like another striker but there should be a decent number of goals from the players we have already.

2. Thistle - was even tougher to choose between my top 2 this time as Thistle have signed very well.  I went for us due to our defence, depth and pure optimism.

3. Ayr - also signed some really decent players and I suspect they'll get a few more in.  Squad depth could be their main issue over a long season.

4. Livi - Don't know much about most of their signings but do still have a few decent players in the squad from last season.

5. Airdrie - feeling more positive about them this season after making a couple of good signings.  McCabe also just looks like a really decent manager who can get the best out of his squad.

6. Morton - Had them bottom before because the lost so many players but Imrie has also brought in some decent replacements.  He'll also have them as stodgy and difficult to beat as always.

7. Falkirk - will probably start well due to the momentum from last season but Rovers fans know all too well that McGlynn isn't the best at changing things when they start to go wrong (and they will at some point for every team).  The championship looks to be a better level all round this year than previous years (albeit without the standout "big" team) so I think the teams coming up from L! might find it tougher than in previous seasons.

8. Hamilton - Just look a bit weaker all around than the teams I have above them.  Oli Shaw should (where he does or not is another question) get them enough goals to keep them out of trouble.

9. Dunfermline - had them higher before because I really expected them to push the boat out this year with the championship being more open than it has been in years.  They haven't really though and the squad still looks very thin in places.  Wotherspoon and Kane have the potential to be very big players for them.  However, they also have the potential to miss half the season through injury and they have nowhere near the same quality to come in for them.

10. Queen's Park - Probably have 4 players in Ferrie, Wilson, Thomas and Paton that most teams in the league would happily have in their squad.  Looks very thin after that though and I expect them to struggle. 

 

Of course I haven't seen any of the other teams pre-season games (other than catching a bit of Ayr v Celtic on the firestick) so I'm genuinely going on what I know about the signings (i.e. not very much) and on the general vibes on here/twitter so I fully accept that I'm probably way off the mark with just about every team.

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On 28/05/2024 at 20:06, GuyIncognito said:

Will probably revise this closer to the league cup groups

Raith

Partick

Livingston

Ayr

Falkirk

Airdrie

Dunfermline

Queens Park

Morton

Hamilton

Final prediction:

Partick

Raith

Ayr

Livingston

Falkirk

Morton

Airdrie

Dunfermline

Hamilton

Queens Park

 

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Quite looking forward to seeing Morton this year. It’s rumoured that wee skinny jean loving Dougie Imrie has realised it’s ok to pass the ball about instead of asking his team to kick it and the opposition as hard as they can. 

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56 minutes ago, Diamond1924 said:

Quite looking forward to seeing Morton this year. It’s rumoured that wee skinny jean loving Dougie Imrie has realised it’s ok to pass the ball about instead of asking his team to kick it and the opposition as hard as they can. 

Can count with one hand many times I seen the ball getting lumped up the park last night against St Mirren it’s very pleasing to see but as you know us Morton fans aren’t used to the Tika takka there’s more technically gifted footballers arrived hoping for a positive season with some decent football being played! Very optimistic 

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3 hours ago, Diamond1924 said:

Quite looking forward to seeing Morton this year. It’s rumoured that wee skinny jean loving Dougie Imrie has realised it’s ok to pass the ball about instead of asking his team to kick it and the opposition as hard as they can. 

It's chinos I'll have you know.

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as it stands right now with the current squads and plans for this season. 

 

1.  Partick Thistle

2. Ayr United

3. Raith Rovers

4. Livingston

5. Falkirk

6. Airdrie 

7. Morton

8. Queens Park

9. Hamilton

10. Dunfermline

 

I hope I’m wrong, but our current squad and size give me the fear.  That and mcpakes current inflexibility on setup and tactics spell a difficult season ahead. 

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On 28/05/2024 at 10:06, HoBNob said:

I'll update this as Pre-season rumbles on. 

28/05/24

1 - Raith Rovers

2-Partick Thistle

3-Falkirk

4-Livingston

5-Dunfermline 

6-Queens Park

7-Ayr

8-Hamilton

9-Morton

10-Airdrie

 

 

11/07/

1-Partick

2-Raith

3-Livingston 

4-Falkirk

5-Ayr

6-Morton

7-Hamilton

8-Dunfermline 

9-Queens Park

10-Airdrie

Update just prior to the League Cup, I think you can split the teams into groups, and I think those teams can finish anywhere in that region. 

Partick, Raith, Livi

Falkirk, Ayr

Morton, Hamilton

Dunfermline, Queens Park, Airdrie 

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Think Ayr will do well this year as will Partick and Raith,  They will possibly be in the top 3.

Livi I'm unsure of at the moment, but will finish in the top 6

Falkirk seem to be running with most of last years squad. not sure if that's strong enough for a play off position

Airdrie will hold their own but don't think they will make the play off's again

Dunfermline still seem short on quality so far so could finish in the lower half of the league

Same goes for Queens as I've not seen anything new in their squad so far.

Hamilton will find it hard going but I'm sure they will be well organised. 

Morton have recruited well. And will have a new style of play. I think we're a decent no.9 away from the promotion playoff's

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It would be a big surprise if Raith or Partick end up in any sort of relegation trouble, but other than those two you can pretty much see anyone ending up anywhere - 3rd and 10th would be equally reasonable predictions for everyone else. 

Livingston have kept enough of their squad together that a challenge isn't unrealistic. While they've obviously had a bit of a turnover as you'd expect with players who could get moves to a higher level departing, and particularly in attack they're not going to have anyone as good as Anderson or Nouble among their replacements, there are still some quality players in the squad - Brandon, Pittman and Kelly are all getting a game for every team in the division. You can see things going to shit for them easily enough between the off-field court cases and the number of gambles among the new signings, but despite having some hints of it they aren't reeking of an obvious shambles that's going to lead to consecutive relegation battles.

There's no reason to doubt Raith's ability to challenge again. Turner's the only departure who you'd view as a big loss, the defence looks stronger (though a question mark over whether Freeman is a downgrade on Millen/Brown) and the depth is really impressive. There's got to be a question about regression to the mean to an extent in whether they can hit the same points total again - scoring the same number of late winners, winning that many games by one goal, getting that many penalties two seasons running would be wild, but if they manage similar stats in those areas you can safely say it's down to mentality and quality rather than luck.

Partick's depth is ridiculous and with a few more signings still to come, they aren't that far off having a second XI that you'd still expect to be a competitive Championship side - they still need more defensive depth and another alternative to Graham but having that number of good midfield options is silly. That squad should definitely be challenging for the title and you'd have to ask questions of Doolan if they don't.

Airdrie are one of the most interesting teams here with the extent of the rebuild McCabe has had to deal with this summer. He's clearly a very good manager as the last two seasons have shown and he had no trouble sensibly adding to the squad to strengthen last summer, but this is a new type of challenge with important players lost in every area of the park and some gambles among the replacements. There's really no reason for Airdrie fans not to have confidence in him getting that rebuild right, but at the same time it's not hard to see them slipping back with a whole attacking rebuild potentially meaning they'll need time to gel.

Morton are another who've had a big rebuild, which is something Imrie has managed to do successfully before, but the big question mark here is whether there are enough goals in the squad. With the number of new attacking signings you'd think there's going to be a functioning creative unit in there even if a couple of the gambles don't pay off, but as the squad stands there's a lot riding on Davies being able to handle the step up from Wales. If he can't deliver a decent number of goals after the loss of Oakley & Muirhead then it's going to be asking a lot of the myriad attacking midfielders and wingers to deliver enough goals.
There'll be another centre forward coming in at some point but that could be another case of waiting to see who's available well after the league season starts, and as with Airdrie you've got the question of how long it'll take the team to gel and find the best XI - a particular worry for Morton after having a terrible first quarter in both of the last two seasons. There's more depth than last season throughout the squad though, especially in defence. Having full backs who are comfortable in possession should stop the style of play being so one dimensional so less likely to fall to bits when one individual is missing, while having enough centre backs to avoid Kirk Broadfoot playing more than 25 games (hopefully not playing at all) should make things more defensively solid.

Dunfermline will have more signings to come so hard to say what sort of quality they're going to have by the time the league starts, but it's not looking great as it stands. Their worst run of form last season did pretty much directly correlate with a bad injury crisis so it's not like you can dismiss their squad as being full of relegation fodder or anything, while Wotherspoon and Kane (if he stays fit) are good signings, but there's an obvious lack of depth and they have one of the managers you'd have the least faith in to drag them out of a rut if they find themselves in trouble.

Ayr have clearly decided it's time to go for it and they've made good signings in every area of the park, while the only player they've lost who'd be getting a game with their current squad is Chalmers. The thing is it was pretty hard to tell last season how good a manager Brown is. He did well enough securing safety from the position they were in when he took over so there's no reason to be negative about him from his time so far, but it's a different task to go and maintain the promotion challenge that he should probably be managing with the squad he's built.

Queen's Park's strongest XI shouldn't have them too far away from a top four challenge on paper. Problem is that they have hardly anything beyond the starting XI, with even less depth than Dunfermline. I'm not particularly convinced by Davidson either, but then they had a considerably poorer manager at the start of last season and Davidson still overcame that dreadful start to stay up, albeit only by a point. There'll surely be more signings to come, but all is clearly not well with the way Davidson is talking and they're just a couple of injuries or losing Paton away from disaster.

While the last couple of seasons have seen the League One winners do worse than the playoff winners, the nature of Falkirk's title win suggests they should really get back to the more common occurrence of the winners going into the top half of the table, something McGlynn also has form for doing. However they've barely strengthened that team as it stands. There's certainly something to be said for continuity when you've had such a good season, and players like MacIver or Morrison who have only been in this league briefly as youngsters getting their start in first team football, not been ready for it then stepped down to League One where they've clearly greatly improved can reasonably be expected to do well and have a good chance of handling the step up. You've then got someone like Spencer who's obviously good enough for the Championship and only dropped down for the money so there's clearly a decent at worst core, but there are still question marks about some of that squad. Maintaining a promotion challenge becomes a much bigger stretch if the likes of Gary Oliver, Aidan Nesbitt, Sean Mackie and Coll Donaldson end up playing regularly.

Hamilton still have John Rankin in charge and I'm not sure you need to say much more than that. There's a stronger starting XI there than the one which was relegated two seasons ago but this summer's business still isn't particularly impressive: adding that rancid clown McGinty will make any team considerably worse. The signing of Shaw though is a really worthwhile gamble. If he can recapture his Kilmarnock form (which was only 3 seasons ago at this level) then his goals could single-handedly be the difference between a relegation battle and playoff challenge.

1. Raith
2. Partick
3. Livingston
4. Ayr
5. Falkirk
6. Airdrie
7. Morton
8. Dunfermline
9. Hamilton
10. Queen's Park

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36 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

 

Dunfermline will have more signings to come so hard to say what sort of quality they're going to have by the time the league starts, but it's not looking great as it stands. 

 

Reserve goalkeeper and defensive cover are all we are due to add before we enter the loan market alongside everyone else towards the end of the transfer window 

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On 10/07/2024 at 12:49, Diamond1924 said:

Quite looking forward to seeing Morton this year. It’s rumoured that wee skinny jean loving Dougie Imrie has realised it’s ok to pass the ball about instead of asking his team to kick it and the opposition as hard as they can. 

Love how a wee Airdrie fan is looking forward to see us play.

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On 08/07/2024 at 18:55, par-adise said:

Apologies, you've added a few lads who have been poor to average in the championship previously. 

McKenna was Championship player of the year 2 seasons ago.

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1 minute ago, TheScarf said:

McKenna was Championship player of the year 2 seasons ago.

A lot can happen in 2 years, you lot were in the cup final 2 years ago, this season your going to Kelty !!

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6 minutes ago, keyser_soze said:

A lot can happen in 2 years, you lot were in the cup final 2 years ago, this season your going to Kelty !!

Yeah you’re right; he’s probably absolutely shite now.

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7 minutes ago, TheScarf said:

Yeah you’re right; he’s probably absolutely shite now.

He did look like he’s suffered a fair drop off since then in saying that so did all the Arbroath players. 
 

I’m not expecting him to elevate Falkirk that much this season from where they were. 

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2 hours ago, TheScarf said:

McKenna was Championship player of the year 2 seasons ago.

Having spent the majority of his career before that playing lower league, Has had his goalscoring feats that got him that accolade return to his career norm of low single figures and fucked his cruciate last season, that's not to say he's a terrible player but its clear that that season was an outlier. 

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On 10/07/2024 at 11:42, GuyIncognito said:

Final prediction:

Partick

Raith

Ayr

Livingston

Falkirk

Morton

Airdrie

Dunfermline

Hamilton

Queens Park

 

Based on what I've seen of Ayr so far and what I'm reading on here that's not a bad shout tbh. If QP really are replacing Paton with Rudden I think they're definitely going to struggle. Don't think there will be nany points between Falkirk/Morton/Airdrie/Dunfermline.

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Genuinely looks an absolutely cracking league this season and with minimal travel (Central belt league) hopefully we’ll see some decent away supports at most games. 
 

Airdrie - Lost a few players from their excellent team last season who owned us in every game we played so I’d expect a bit of a drop off unless McCabe can pull another magic trick out the bag.  I guess we’ll get a good indication when we face them first game  

Ayr - Seem to have recruited well and not shocked a few are tipping them to challenge this season with the signings Brown has made, I think they’ll be challenging for the playoffs but not quite the title as they had a lot less to build on than Partick and Rovers at the end of last season. 

 Dunfermline - Actually underwhelmed by their transfer activity so as I expected them to sign a bit more after a relatively poor season last year by their standards  perhaps McPake is putting a lot of last season down to injuries as they were pretty unlucky in that regard last season.  Couple of decent signings, will they be enough to challenge at the right end of the table 🤷‍♂️ 

Falkirk - Cracking season last year going undefeated is an achievement at any level but how will they handle their first defeat when it comes is a big question.  McGlynn obviously knows this level and there’s players in the Falkirk team who do too so they'd expect to be challenging at the right end of the table.  

Morton - I think many had them for the bottom two after they lost a few good players but Imrie seems to have made a few decent signing to give them a decent Championship team. Last season seemed to be peaks and troughs with runs of wins and defeats, csn we expect to see the same again this season? 

Hamilton - Will be a lot of peoples tip for the drop but so we’re Airdrie last season and look how that panned out.  Like any team coming up I think the first few games are really crucial as you need to hit the ground running and build confidence in your players.  I’d expect them to be bottom half but we’ll see.  

Livingston - I’ve absolutely no idea where Livingston will finish this season, normally you’d have the relegated team as favourites to return but Livingston seem to lack the same financial backing of previously relegated teams.  No doubt Martindale has a few tricks up his sleeve as they didn’t stay up so long without earning it.  

Partick - Recruited well and deservedly many peoples tip for the title, looked decent last season but just lacked the consistency to keep up with the top two and perhaps Raith’s last minute winner abilities but a solid base to build on.  Absolutely no doubt the Maryhill lads will be up challenging for the league and I think Brian Graham could be crucial, a brilliant striker ever team would take but obviously not getting any younger so injuries could be key.  

Queens Park - Seem a wee bit of a mess at the moment off the pitch due to their Southside neighbours incompetence leaving huge questions on where they’ll even be playing not sure they’ve replaced what they lost last season and Paton potentially leaving could see a hard slog for the Querns Park fans. Board really need to sort out Lesser Hampden asap before the money is gone and they’ve no stadium fit for purpose.  

Raith - We’re apparently the bookings favourites and they’re never wrong 😂, should be challenging for the title after retaining much of last seasons squad and recruiting in the defence that was our weakness last year. I think we’ll bring in another striker and who that is could be the difference in where we finish as we look a little light up top just now. Rovers will need to put in the same shift that saw so many late goals last season if they want to challenge again.  

Edited by San Starko Rover
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