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Third place, four point watch


JS_FFC

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3 minutes ago, Richey Edwards said:

We're not supposed to win easily though. We're supposed to be put through the wringer.

Winning easily would be the most un-Scottish thing ever.

I mean, you're correct there, but if you don't think it would be the pinnacle of 4.6 billion years of universal existence then I feel sorry for you.

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Possibly my favourite Scotland memory is when we were two up on Ukraine in about 10 minutes around 2007ish. Same again tomorrow please, Lee McCulloch worldie optional.

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We need 

 

Win and 2 of:

 

Spain avoid defeat

England avoid defeat OR Denmark/Serbia draw 

Netherlands win

Neither group E game is a draw

Portugal avoid defeat

 

 

Draw and all of:

 

Spain win

Italy win

Portugal win

Turkey win 

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10 hours ago, JS_FFC said:

We need 

 

Win and 2 of:

 

Spain avoid defeat

England avoid defeat OR Denmark/Serbia draw 

Netherlands win

Neither group E game is a draw

Portugal avoid defeat

 

 

Draw and all of:

 

Spain win

Italy win

Portugal win

Turkey win 

In the win section at least 2 events look quite possible. 

The draw options not so sure; a so-so Italy v Croatia might not happen and the Czechs are playing for a win/straight qualification against Turkey. 

Edited by rainbowrising
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That's a great wee visual.

Worth noting, any scenario in which we're through and Group B's 3rd placed team (Croatia or Albania, both currently on one point and playing Italy and Spain respectively) doesn't get through, we're in Frankfurt on Monday night against Portugal.

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11 minutes ago, rainbowrising said:

If England lose and Denmark win, pushing England in to 3rd spot, how does that loose cannon impact things?

 

 

Not good news for us as they would rank above us (barring a miraculous goal difference swing). 

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12 minutes ago, rainbowrising said:

If England lose and Denmark win, pushing England in to 3rd spot, how does that loose cannon impact things?

 

 

Looking at the graphic above, if this happens and Scotland are sitting on 4 points, it'd also require either Georgia to beat Portugal or Albania to beat Spain for us to go out.

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So I’ve been number crunching the bookie odds. It looks like we have about a 37% chance of going through, but that jumps up to 98% if we win tonight and falls to 7% if we draw. 

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It's obviously poor to have never got out a group, but we've actually not performed as badly in groups as some would have you believe.

We've had (new money) 5 points, 4 points three times, three points twice. Ireland, Nothern Ireland, and Wales have all got out of groups with 3 and/or 4 points. And both Ireland and Wales have qualified in the past with 0 wins, by way of comparison.

So, it would probably be quite fitting if after some of those better showings, we finally limp into a knockout stage with two mucky draws and a 5-1 battering.

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1 minute ago, DoingThe42 said:

It's obviously poor to have never got out a group, but we've actually not performed as badly in groups as some would have you believe.

We've had (new money) 5 points, 4 points three times, three points twice. Ireland, Nothern Ireland, and Wales have all got out of groups with 3 and/or 4 points. And both Ireland and Wales have qualified in the past with 0 wins, by way of comparison.

So, it would probably be quite fitting if after some of those better showings, we finally limp into a knockout stage with two mucky draws and a 5-1 battering.

Whilst it's impossible to say for definite it's incredibly likely we got out of the groups in 92 and 96 if we had a 24 team format. 

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Just now, invergowrie arab said:

Whilst it's impossible to say for definite it's incredibly likely we got out of the groups in 92 and 96 if we had a 24 team format. 

Very likely. And if the 74 and 78 World Cup had been 24 or 32-team tournaments, we'd have been very unlikely to get knocked out of them as well. 82 was 24-team, but a different format. If it had had the 3rd place qualifiers, we'd have qualified.

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26 minutes ago, Uncle Psychosis said:

What's the odds of Hungary going through with 3?

I really would quite like to see the last of them. 

Hungary will almost certainly progress... unless Albania beat Spain or Croatia beat Italy then 3rd in Group B will have just 2pts or 1pt; ditto in F unless Georgia beat Portugal or Czech Rep beat Turkey; ditto in C if England beat Slovenia while Denmark v Serbia doesn't end drawn.

There are less likely scenarios for D and E involving thumpings.

It may prove that 0-0 would have done us...

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