There was ultra aggressive tactical voting. Libdems and tories and Labour all happily rutting away together, to deny a pro indepence majority and they failed. Because there is a pro independence majority in Holyrood.
I'm going to say this just one more time as it remains the case, there is only one way to accurately gauge support for a binary choice and that is by referendum. Neither multiparty votes nor adding one vote and ignoring another then licking your finger and sticking it in the air achieves this. The support is there, otherwise we'd have Douglas Ross or that Labour guy Ricard Langoustine as FM.
And you have ignored the list vote because if the opposite was true I'm sure this argument of yours would be turned on its head and suddenly the constituencies wouldn't matter its the proportional list that counts.
Perhaps your prediction will come to pass, I think not but that will be because the Scottish government have chosen to ignore the repeated and explicit instructions from the electorate, not because of what amounts to little more than frankly desperate numberwang.