GordonS Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 6 hours ago, ICTChris said: Labour predicted to win 75% of the seats in parliament off 42% of the vote, which Survation notes would potentially make us the least representative democracy in the world, and still nobody is talking about how the electoral system is a total joke. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 6 hours ago, GordonS said: Labour predicted to win 75% of the seats in parliament off 42% of the vote, which Survation notes would potentially make us the least representative democracy in the world, and still nobody is talking about how the electoral system is a total joke. Some of us are, and some of us have pointed this out multiple times before but you’re right that it’s largely ignored. FPTP was abolished in local elections because it was unrepresentative. A form of PR is used for the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments and was used for the Euro elections so FPTP was seen as not being fit for purpose for every type of election bar the one where it is definitely not fit for purpose. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Tennis Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 16 hours ago, JS_FFC said: What you’ve got to note with those former Tory-SNP marginals is that is that you’ve got two parties who are both absolutely haemorrhaging votes to Labour. In places like this where the combined SNP/Tory vote is the the vast majority of the vote, that’s a lot of votes for Labour to hoover up. I do think Labour are third favourites in this seat, but they’re 9/2 on Bet365. It wouldn’t be totally farfetched for them to win a very tight 3-way marginal. I've just spent a while looking to confirm that an SNP vote here is the way to unseat the Tory (he's actually standing down but you know what I mean). I'm satisfied that this is the case, but it's easy to be misled. There have been polls that show it going to Labour and there was a wildly misleading Labour leaflet that said the same. In constituencies like this, I can see people ticking the wrong box with good intentions, and regretting it. I'm not 100% sure I'll not be one of them, but I'm pretty confident that It's on a knife edge between the Tories and the SNP, with Labour not far, but significantly, behind. The key might lie in how many nasty shits go all the way to Reform. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
O'Kelly Isley III Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 15 hours ago, ICTChris said: Here's a prediction. If Labour manages anything of that magnitude then in very short order party discipline will be severely straining as that number of MP's will allow plenty of scope for factionalism. And no-one does that better than Labour. The party leadership has thus far managed iron discipline to the point of gross deceit but that's unlikely to hold in the harsh light of government, and they may well find that the most serious opposition will be sitting on their own benches. I'd like to think there will be strong views on Gaza, Brexit and the benefits cap, to name but three craven policies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 minute ago, O'Kelly Isley III said: Here's a prediction. If Labour manages anything of that magnitude then in very short order party discipline will be severely straining as that number of MP's will allow plenty of scope for factionalism. And no-one does that better than Labour. The party leadership has thus far managed iron discipline to the point of gross deceit but that's unlikely to hold in the harsh light of government, and they may well find that the most serious opposition will be sitting on their own benches. I'd like to think there will be strong views on Gaza, Brexit and the benefits cap, to name but three craven policies. You may be right, which is why Starmer and his cronies have done everything in their power to minimise the number of (even slightly) left candidates in winnable seats. Sadly I see the backbenches filled more with ambitious pole climbers than social justice warriors. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 2 hours ago, Granny Danger said: Some of us are, and some of us have pointed this out multiple times before but you’re right that it’s largely ignored. Sorry, obviously folk who pay attention talk about it, but among people who can do anything about it, including the print and broadcast media, nobody talks about it. Quote FPTP was abolished in local elections because it was unrepresentative. A form of PR is used for the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments and was used for the Euro elections so FPTP was seen as not being fit for purpose for every type of election bar the one where it is definitely not fit for purpose. They still have FPTP in local elections in England (though they have some multi-member wards too, which is weird). We only have PR in local government in Scotland because the Lib Dems' leader Jim Wallace made it the price of a coalition with Labour in 2003, with the first PR elections coming in 2007. Labour didn't care that FPTP was unrepresentative and COSLA were raging about Jack McConnell agreeing to the deal. The Scottish Parliament's electoral system was decided by the cross-party Scottish Constitutional Convention in the 1990s while the Tories were still in power. Apart from the two-question referendum, all of the big decisions had been taken before 1997 and were handed to the incoming Labour government. We used to have FPTP for Euro elections, until the European Parliament told us it wasn't allowed any more. It was changed to PR in 1999. The House of Lords objected to the Bill so hard that, for only the second time since 1949, they had to use the Parliament Acts to force it through. There is no interest in PR in the Labour or Conservative parties, they're happy with their duopoly and locking everyone else out. Nick Clegg should have made PR for Westminster a condition of his deal with the Tories in 2010 but he settled for a pathetic referendum on a stupid form of PR that was always likely to be lost, because he cared more about Ministerial jobs and short money than about achieving anything useful. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leith Green Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 One of the biggest problems if there is a genuinely massive Labour majority is that Parliamentary committees usually have a good cross party spread - but there are a lot of them, and ensuring coverage could be really difficult. I guess we find out on Friday. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JS_FFC Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 22 minutes ago, Leith Green said: One of the biggest problems if there is a genuinely massive Labour majority is that Parliamentary committees usually have a good cross party spread - but there are a lot of them, and ensuring coverage could be really difficult. I guess we find out on Friday. I’d be amazed if anyone thinks “yeah, the Tories have been shite for 14 years, but I’ll vote for them so that the cross party committee on road signs isn’t dominated by Labour” 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leith Green Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 3 minutes ago, JS_FFC said: I’d be amazed if anyone thinks “yeah, the Tories have been shite for 14 years, but I’ll vote for them so that the cross party committee on road signs isn’t dominated by Labour” Of course not, and neither would I - its just a byproduct of the probable meltdown of the awful tory party. Its entirely their fault, as will be the impending rise of the right wing parties - Reform etc - afterwards. I hate Tories, always have. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 2 minutes ago, Leith Green said: Of course not, and neither would I - its just a byproduct of the probable meltdown of the awful tory party. Its entirely their fault, as will be the impending rise of the right wing parties - Reform etc - afterwards. I hate Tories, always have. As well as I can remember I started taking an interest in politics when I was 14 years old which means I have had the personal (though unoriginal) mantra of ‘F*CK THE TORIES’ for 55 years. On the upside, and too often downside, I’ve been an Arab for even longer. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Bully Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 And a final one pre election. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Master Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 On 01/07/2024 at 21:20, HibeeJibee said: Popped onto Electoral Calculus and notice they predict even Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk to go Labour... I'll eat my hatstand if it does. Last time Conservatives 48.4%, SNP 38.8%, Lib Dems 8.1%, Labour 4.7%. (Labour hasn't taken more than 10% in the seat since 2005 plus hasn't finished 2nd or higher since 1979 when Berwickshire was in with East Lothian and 1918 for the rest). Electoral Calculus is all over the place. Yesterday they had Dundee Central "staying"* SNP with Arbroath and Broughty Ferry going Labour. Now it seems to be the other way round. *New seat, so notionally... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottsdad Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 There is an argument to be made that publishing polls should be banned during an election campaign. I've never thought much about it until now - this, more than any other, has led to changes in campaign strategy. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee-Bey Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottsdad Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 hour ago, Cheese said: To be fair, that's a fantastic strategy. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee-Bey Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 1 minute ago, scottsdad said: To be fair, that's a fantastic strategy. It's an effective strategy for winning an election for sure, but it's highly likely to run into serious problems pretty quickly. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leith Green Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 49 minutes ago, Cheese said: It's an effective strategy for winning an election for sure, but it's highly likely to run into serious problems pretty quickly. FT earlier - its not that people love Labour and Starmer, its just they are not "tory". 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eez-eh Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 34 minutes ago, Leith Green said: FT earlier - it’s not that people love Labour and Starmer, it’s ljust they are not "tory". Very misleading graph. It‘s only gone from 7.6 to 7.0 on a scale of 0-10. Tbh I’m shocked it’s as high as that for either of the c***s. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highlandmagar Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Sky News, You Gov predicting a Labour majority of 212?? Utterly mind blowing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 34 minutes ago, Highlandmagar said: Sky News, You Gov predicting a Labour majority of 212?? Utterly mind blowing. Is that the polling company owned by the tories? I think they are trying to scare folk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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