The Famous Aberdeen - Season 2022/23

[tarapoa]

A couple of days and the gloom of Saturday's display hasn't dissipated.

Eight years we've had of checking Bert Kassies and his coefficients website, and the exotic excitement of European draws.  From the conical beaches and tapas bars of San Sebastian, to Macedonia, Kazakhstan, Lapland, Lisbon, Georgia.....and Burnley. Watching our club pull off fine victories in tough venues such as Groningen, Rijeka and Stavanger and building up a reasonable seeding points total for ourselves, despite the obvious glass ceiling in the Europa.

Just as the new format opens up the opportunity for more Scottish clubs to have aspirations to go deeper in European competition, we have the rug pulled from under our feet.

Our chairman talks of a dream in us being in Europe's top #100 clubs - yet all he's seemingly done is remove what was becoming a fairly straightforward box to tick on an annual basis of at least being at the party in the first place. Now a Hearts side, who have been yo-yo'ing between leagues for much of the last decade look set to take advantage and that really grates.............

Without going over all the divisive old ground, it all still seems so unnecessary.

Edited April 11, 2022 by tarapoa

[Game of throw-ins]

3 hours ago, tarapoa said:

A couple of days and the gloom of Saturday's display hasn't dissipated.

Eight years we've had of checking Bert Kassies and his coefficients website, and the exotic excitement of European draws.  From the conical beaches and tapas bars of San Sebastian, to Macedonia, Kazakhstan, Lapland, Lisbon, Georgia.....and Burnley. Watching our club pull off fine victories in tough venues such as Groningen, Rijeka and Stavanger and building up a reasonable seeding points total for ourselves, despite the obvious glass ceiling in the Europa.

Just as the new format opens up the opportunity for more Scottish clubs to have aspirations to go deeper in European competition, we have the rug pulled from under our feet.

Our chairman talks of a dream in us being in Europe's top #100 clubs - yet all he's seemingly done is remove what was becoming a fairly straightforward box to tick on an annual basis of at least being at the party in the first place. Now a Hearts side, who have been yo-yo'ing between leagues for much of the last decade look set to take advantage and that really grates.............

Without going over all the divisive old ground, it all still seems so unnecessary.

We're in a very worrying place.

The goodish news is that I think the "expansive football" fantasy has been put to bed. Goodwin's interviews all point to him being a hard-line pragmatist and he wouldn't be saying the stuff he's saying if Cormack hadn't signed off on the change of approach.  But it does provoke the obvious question, wtf has the past year been about?  Couldn't Cormack have got to where he is now by thinking harder and respecting the opinions of football professionals instead of indulging this expensive, destructive and entirely predictably failed experiment?  Or by realising that his job isn't to pander to the on-line fruitcakes, it's to know better than them?

Because, even assuming we can avoid relegation, where we are now has the unmistakable whiff of shit creek.  Goodwin thinks he's a pragmatist but from the way he's talking about recruitment I think he's seriously underestimated the difficulty of bringing quality players to this club.  I predict he'll have a very different opinion in 2 or 3 months time.

Basically he needs to recruit almost an entire team.  Of the guys likely to be here next season I'd say only Barron, Besuijen and McCrorie look like reasonably solid positives, and two of them are inexperienced kids.  Bates, Gallagher and MacKenzie are first team possibles but they will be weak links unless they have much more consistent seasons next time.  Watkins is talented but fragile.  Hayes is questionable at full back and I'm not sure he has another year in him.

So we're probably going to have to sign 10 or more new faces.  And no club at our level will get that many new signings right.  If a successful signing is one that deservedly commands a first team place when fit, I'd guess our success rate is typically about 30%. If we get 50% Goodwin will have done very well.  And I still doubt that would be enough to deliver anything better than mid-table.

Even Goodwin does a good job - and that's a massive if - I think it'll take him 3 or 4 windows to to get us to the level we've taken for granted over the previous 8 seasons. By then Hearts, pumped up with European money that could have been ours, might be impossible to catch.  It really has been the most monumental clusterfuck.  And almost entirely self-inflicted.

[big al]

29 minutes ago, Game of throw-ins said:

We're in a very worrying place.

The goodish news is that I think the "expansive football" fantasy has been put to bed. Goodwin's interviews all point to him being a hard-line pragmatist and he wouldn't be saying the stuff he's saying if Cormack hadn't signed off on the change of approach.  But it does provoke the obvious question, wtf has the past year been about?  Couldn't Cormack have got to where he is now by thinking harder and respecting the opinions of football professionals instead of indulging this expensive, destructive and entirely predictably failed experiment?  Or by realising that his job isn't to pander to the on-line fruitcakes, it's to know better than them?

Because, even assuming we can avoid relegation, where we are now has the unmistakable whiff of shit creek.  Goodwin thinks he's a pragmatist but from the way he's talking about recruitment I think he's seriously underestimated the difficulty of bringing quality players to this club.  I predict he'll have a very different opinion in 2 or 3 months time.

Basically he needs to recruit almost an entire team.  Of the guys likely to be here next season I'd say only Barron, Besuijen and McCrorie look like reasonably solid positives, and two of them are inexperienced kids.  Bates, Gallagher and MacKenzie are first team possibles but they will be weak links unless they have much more consistent seasons next time.  Watkins is talented but fragile.  Hayes is questionable at full back and I'm not sure he has another year in him.

So we're probably going to have to sign 10 or more new faces.  And no club at our level will get that many new signings right.  If a successful signing is one that deservedly commands a first team place when fit, I'd guess our success rate is typically about 30%. If we get 50% Goodwin will have done very well.  And I still doubt that would be enough to deliver anything better than mid-table.

Even Goodwin does a good job - and that's a massive if - I think it'll take him 3 or 4 windows to to get us to the level we've taken for granted over the previous 8 seasons. By then Hearts, pumped up with European money that could have been ours, might be impossible to catch.  It really has been the most monumental clusterfuck.  And almost entirely self-inflicted.

It will absolutely take 2/3 years to get a team that he’s happy with. Nobody can sign half a squad(at least) and get them all right. 
Glass had the same problem and wasn’t given time as there’s no patience in football these days. 
The people at the club and the fans probably think it’s a bigger draw for players to sign here than alot of players do. That’s the sad reality.

As for Hearts, they are way ahead on various aspects, despite being relegated twice in recent times.

Renovated stadium with a cracking atmosphere for starters. Bigger season ticket numbers and good income streams from that rich guy Anderson? and the foundation etc.

Maybe not many home grown players getting into the team is a negative for them.

[lubo_blaha]

The result on Saturday means that we have been beaten by every team in the league this season.

[Dons_1988]

The short version of my opinion is that the club have tried to do too much change too quickly. 

Cormack speaks well and clearly has a can do attitude but a more phased approach to the football side may have been prudent. 

Changing the manager, most of the squad, the structure of the football operation, the shift of our scouting network to overseas and linking up with Atlanta. Filling those senior positions with generally inexperienced people all the whilst coming out of a pandemic that gave our finances a heavy dunt, it’s not exactly that surprising that we find ourselves in a large mess.

The mcinnes era was over but cormack maybe got carried away with the online narrative that things were horrific and needed changed from top to bottom when in actual fact it had just gone a bit stale. 

In principle a lot of the changes are good. A director of football, head of recruitment, expanding out network are all positives but it’s all just been thrown together in a bit of a rush. 

[coprolite]

13 minutes ago, lubo_blaha said:

The result on Saturday means that we have been beaten by every team in the league this season.

Showing some consistency at least. 

[EdmontonDandy]

I see we have two home games up first post split.  Livi and Dundee.  I  do believe we will get full points here.

[DrewDon]

If anything, this season has proved that confirmation bias is alive and well amongst our fanbase - and I include myself in this. 

[Frank Grimes]

f**k sake, I’m staying in Perth on the 11th so I feel obligated to go to that 

Caley bar for pints it is 

[betting competition]

Sill upset after Saturday non-performance which the players didn't seem up for it. If we are dragged into a relegation fight then I don't know if they have the fight that others teams will have. 

Don't understand why Goodwin is doing the clear out before the most important game of the season, the contracts should have been done this week when we don't have a game on. 

 

[Thenorthernlight]

1 hour ago, EdmontonDandy said:

I see we have two home games up first post split.  Livi and Dundee.  I  do believe we will get full points here.

On the basis of what?

We’ve won one game in 2022 

[Sheepster]

2 hours ago, Game of throw-ins said:

We're in a very worrying place.

The goodish news is that I think the "expansive football" fantasy has been put to bed. Goodwin's interviews all point to him being a hard-line pragmatist and he wouldn't be saying the stuff he's saying if Cormack hadn't signed off on the change of approach.  But it does provoke the obvious question, wtf has the past year been about?  Couldn't Cormack have got to where he is now by thinking harder and respecting the opinions of football professionals instead of indulging this expensive, destructive and entirely predictably failed experiment?  Or by realising that his job isn't to pander to the on-line fruitcakes, it's to know better than them?

Because, even assuming we can avoid relegation, where we are now has the unmistakable whiff of shit creek.  Goodwin thinks he's a pragmatist but from the way he's talking about recruitment I think he's seriously underestimated the difficulty of bringing quality players to this club.  I predict he'll have a very different opinion in 2 or 3 months time.

Basically he needs to recruit almost an entire team.  Of the guys likely to be here next season I'd say only Barron, Besuijen and McCrorie look like reasonably solid positives, and two of them are inexperienced kids.  Bates, Gallagher and MacKenzie are first team possibles but they will be weak links unless they have much more consistent seasons next time.  Watkins is talented but fragile.  Hayes is questionable at full back and I'm not sure he has another year in him.

So we're probably going to have to sign 10 or more new faces.  And no club at our level will get that many new signings right.  If a successful signing is one that deservedly commands a first team place when fit, I'd guess our success rate is typically about 30%. If we get 50% Goodwin will have done very well.  And I still doubt that would be enough to deliver anything better than mid-table.

Even Goodwin does a good job - and that's a massive if - I think it'll take him 3 or 4 windows to to get us to the level we've taken for granted over the previous 8 seasons. By then Hearts, pumped up with European money that could have been ours, might be impossible to catch.  It really has been the most monumental clusterfuck.  And almost entirely self-inflicted.

Finding quality players willing to come to Aberdeen will not be an easy task, in particular a couple of decent strikers. We live in hope. Your solid positives are a decent shout. Even though he was being man marked, thought Barron did well again. Gallagher's been playing OK recently and I expect he may fit into Goodwin's style of play. Bates for me is just too erratic with his decision making - trying to play Griffiths offside at Dens first time round - still riles me!! Since MacKenzie came into the side last season, thought he was one of our most consistent performers each week up to his injury in October. Probably not helped by being wheeled out at Tannadice in November when we only had one CH. Don't think he's even played 180 mins in the league since and struggling for fitness. Hopefully he can get fully fit (pre-October) and provide at least an option.  I expect the plan will be to use Hayes only in a more advanced role next season - Goodwin was certainly keen to get him more advanced on Saturday. As for Watkins, another that needs to show more consistency but certainly a player that can turn a game (and I'm not meaning giving away stupid freekicks in the last minute against Dundee!!).    

[big al]

1 hour ago, Sheepster said:

Finding quality players willing to come to Aberdeen will not be an easy task, in particular a couple of decent strikers. We live in hope. Your solid positives are a decent shout. Even though he was being man marked, thought Barron did well again. Gallagher's been playing OK recently and I expect he may fit into Goodwin's style of play. Bates for me is just too erratic with his decision making - trying to play Griffiths offside at Dens first time round - still riles me!! Since MacKenzie came into the side last season, thought he was one of our most consistent performers each week up to his injury in October. Probably not helped by being wheeled out at Tannadice in November when we only had one CH. Don't think he's even played 180 mins in the league since and struggling for fitness. Hopefully he can get fully fit (pre-October) and provide at least an option.  I expect the plan will be to use Hayes only in a more advanced role next season - Goodwin was certainly keen to get him more advanced on Saturday. As for Watkins, another that needs to show more consistency but certainly a player that can turn a game (and I'm not meaning giving away stupid freekicks in the last minute against Dundee!!).    

He had to get Hayes further up the park as it was one of the few alterations to the attacking end of the pitch that were at his disposal. That doesn’t mean that will be the plan next season though, as surely the squad will contain a better balance and therefore more attacking players that aren’t the size of Giant Haystacks.

[highland_mechanic]

4 hours ago, EdmontonDandy said:

I see we have two home games up first post split.  Livi and Dundee.  I  do believe we will get full points here.

Clearly you haven't seen us much this season. 

[lubo_blaha]

Finding quality players willing to come to Aberdeen will not be an easy task, in particular a couple of decent strikers. We live in hope. Your solid positives are a decent shout. Even though he was being man marked, thought Barron did well again. Gallagher's been playing OK recently and I expect he may fit into Goodwin's style of play. Bates for me is just too erratic with his decision making - trying to play Griffiths offside at Dens first time round - still riles me!! Since MacKenzie came into the side last season, thought he was one of our most consistent performers each week up to his injury in October. Probably not helped by being wheeled out at Tannadice in November when we only had one CH. Don't think he's even played 180 mins in the league since and struggling for fitness. Hopefully he can get fully fit (pre-October) and provide at least an option.  I expect the plan will be to use Hayes only in a more advanced role next season - Goodwin was certainly keen to get him more advanced on Saturday. As for Watkins, another that needs to show more consistency but certainly a player that can turn a game (and I'm not meaning giving away stupid freekicks in the last minute against Dundee!!).    

We should have a decent amount to spend on players at least. Brown, Considine, McGeouch, Ojo, JET, Lewis all leaving could free up around 15-20k p/w with Jenks and Montgomery leaving also.

From there, I’d say we need:

1x first choice Goalkeeper

1x first choice centre back

1/2x players who can cover right/left back

1x backup centre midfielder

1x first team quality winger/forward

1x quality striker to compete with/replace Ramirez

If Ramsay or Ferguson are sold then we will obviously have to replace them too.

Huge summer recruitment-wise. I sincerely hope Mowbray and the scouting team have been putting in good work in these past few months and Goodwin has a couple of tricks up his sleeve.

[EdmontonDandy]

28 minutes ago, highland_mechanic said:

Clearly you haven't seen us much this season. 

On the contrary.  I've watched every game on RedTV this season.  To answer another poster's question around what I based my statement on, not sure really.  Call it blind optimism if you will because logically, of course, based on our record so far in 2022, we just don't seem capable enough.  I do like to think that maybe the players will realise what's at stake here.  Do I believe we will be relegated?  Absolutely not but there is no doubt about the significance of the task ahead.  I'm old enough to remember the clear out that Eddie Turnbull performed whenbhe arrived and I do feel we will see somerhing similar, although not 17 players, this off season.

[Jacksgranda]

15 hours ago, EdmontonDandy said:

I see we have two home games up first post split.  Livi and Dundee.  I  do believe we will get full points here.

Can't see it myself. Maybe one win, possibly two draws, more likely just one point.

[Jacksgranda]

10 hours ago, EdmontonDandy said:

On the contrary.  I've watched every game on RedTV this season.  To answer another poster's question around what I based my statement on, not sure really.  Call it blind optimism if you will because logically, of course, based on our record so far in 2022, we just don't seem capable enough.  I do like to think that maybe the players will realise what's at stake here.  Do I believe we will be relegated?  Absolutely not but there is no doubt about the significance of the task ahead.  I'm old enough to remember the clear out that Eddie Turnbull performed whenbhe arrived and I do feel we will see somerhing similar, although not 17 players, this off season.

So am I - Eddie didn't mess about. Took him a few years to sort things out - remember 1968/69? - I'm not sure my intial sake will get the same amount of time.

[Dons_1988]

If we don’t win either of those first two post split games then we could be in a pickle tbh. 

Conversely, if we took say 4 points then we could be pretty much comfortable. 

[coprolite]

The list i've seen of our players going out of contract in the summer suggests that we only have Ojo, McGeogh and Ruth still to decide on along with a couple of sub standard loanees.

Is that list right? 

I'd be tempted to give Ruth another year to make it. Assume the other two will move on. 

Unless we sell anyone or otherwise move them on then we're probably looking at no more than four first team signings. 

Ferguson and Ramsay are saleable. We could possibly mutual consent Lewis and /or Ramirez if the rumblings about them wanting away are true but that would only free up wages and not fees. Everyone else is probably in the best gig they can get and would need paid off. 

I feel we're going to be disappointed by the scale of the rebuild over the summer. Hope not, but...