Next UK Labour Leader

[Fide]

Currency was always their Achilles heal - something I think has been quietly acknowledged since.

 

Currency was made into an Achilles Heel.  It needn't have been.

[Arsenal till I die]

 

Exactly when has any leader of the two major parties not been copping huge amounts of flak from their own team? Thatcher was booted by her mob, Major had the whole "b*****ds" show down, Blair was quite reviled by large sections of his party, Brown faced will he wont he David Milliband to run against him, Cameron has part of his party half way into another party (UKIP) and all the opposition leaders from Foot onwards have had it as bad or worse. 

 

Corbyn is one of the biggest serial rebels in parliament, for people supporting him to call for discipline is ludicrous. 

 

The next election will be decided by voters in places like Corby, Stevenage and Warwick and Leamington. 

 

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warwick_and_Leamington_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

(Con majority 6606)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stevenage_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

Con maj 4955

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corby_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

Con maj 2412

 

The three turn outs are 70,67,70. Two of them are prosperous while Corby has its economic problems. There is little scope for some fantasy new voters turning up and propelling Labour to power. The kind of young and urban voter than loves Corbyn is not really a big factor here. The swing voters are people who voted Blair 3 times, have enough that they fear more radical change but feel that society does not care enough for the less well off. 

 

Crobyn's personal lack of any meaningful heft in such constituencies is multiplied by the fact that he will face the likelihood of a Lab\SNP coalition with the SNP once again boasting it will be coming to London to spend lots of money. Labour have to basically be looking likely to get a 50 seat advantage over the tories to so they can form coalitions with the lib dems\greens\SDLP rather than SNP. 

 

David Cameron f*cked a pig and is still ahead in the mid term polls. Corbyn is Labours IDS. Brain dead and repeats the same old tunes the core activists want to hear but is completely tone deaf to the people who actually decide UK parliamentary elections. 

 

With your last paragraphs, you have shown why you're wrong. The days of Labour overall majorities are over. Social media and alternative media on the internet has put an end to it was the sun wot won it - I'd hazard a guess many who voted for Blair wouldn't if there was the technology of today to show him up. The Tories got an overall majority but really, Labour were promising a Tory government if there was a hung parliament, had stuck 2 fingers up at about half their own voters during the referendum and couldn't stop boasting in 2010 about talks with the Lib Dems breaking down. If the Tories and Labour both appeal to their core voters then hung parliaments should be the norm now (internal sabotage aside, which is now happening in the Labour PLP). 

 

Put simply, if Labour want to ever be in Downing Street again, they have to be compatible with the SNP or at least what Scotland votes for. They can either chase middle England or chase Scotland - the days when they could get most of the seats in Scotland while chasing Middle England are over.

[DrewDon]

Put simply, if Labour want to ever be in Downing Street again, they have to be compatible with the SNP or at least what Scotland votes for. They can either chase middle England or chase Scotland - the days when they could get most of the seats in Scotland while chasing Middle England are over.

Even if Labour was "compatible" with the SNP, what would motivate SNP voters to migrate to Labour? In those circumstances, which I fear Corbyn is trying to produce, Labour would gain a very limited number of votes back from the SNP, whilst continuing to isolate voters who deserted them in Middle England. There is also the distinct possibility that they would lose yet more voters in Scotland, which could offset any won back. That would be the worst of both worlds for Labour. There are also more seats for Labour to chase in Middle England than Scotland - or more seats they could realistically seek to be in serious contention for in the near future.

I really don't foresee a feasible route back for Labour in post-referendum Scotland, regardless of where they attempt to position themselves. They're just going to have to take hiding after hiding and hope for a miraculous change in the political weather. 

[Wee Willie]

Even if Labour was "compatible" with the SNP, what would motivate SNP voters to migrate to Labour? In those circumstances, which I fear Corbyn is trying to produce, Labour would gain a very limited number of votes back from the SNP, whilst continuing to isolate voters who deserted them in Middle England. There is also the distinct possibility that they would lose yet more voters in Scotland, which could offset any won back. That would be the worst of both worlds for Labour. There are also more seats for Labour to chase in Middle England than Scotland - or more seats they could realistically seek to be in serious contention for in the near future.

I really don't foresee a feasible route back for Labour in post-referendum Scotland, regardless of where they attempt to position themselves. They're just going to have to take hiding after hiding and hope for a miraculous change in the political weather. 

...or for Independence

[Antlion]

I don't think Labour (at least not the UK leaders and cabinet) have given up on getting Scotland "back", as though it's a silly little sausage that's temporarily got some fool idea about becoming a nation state into its head that will pass if it's scolded enough.

Labour have never actually stopped to even *consider* Scotland regaining statehood. It's a concept too alien to them to really acknowledge, so they seem to think UK statehood the only reasonable attitude and any other is abhorrent and fringe.

Labour really is a victim of its own small c conservativism. For a once-radical party, their horror of anything other the glorious past of Labour victories and "united" British nationalism is rather tragic.

[dogmc]

I don't think Labour (at least not the UK leaders and cabinet) have given up on getting Scotland "back", as though it's a silly little sausage that's temporarily got some fool idea about becoming a nation state into its head that will pass if it's scolded enough.

Labour have never actually stopped to even *consider* Scotland regaining statehood. It's a concept too alien to them to really acknowledge, so they seem to think UK statehood the only reasonable attitude and any other is abhorrent and fringe.

Labour really is a victim of its own small c conservativism. For a once-radical party, their horror of anything other the glorious past of Labour victories and "united" British nationalism is rather tragic.

I dont even think its as ideological as that.....labour only cares about power at Westminster (and associated gravy trains) and in the past they could rely on dozens of Scottish mps to help that. An independent Scotland would have made Westminster majority far more difficult to attain so they had to back no. I doubt it even occured to them the damage that cosying up to the tories ukip orange order etc would do to them because theyve never in recent memory had voters question themselves about voting labour. Now that voters have woken up to how opportunistic and corrupt labour are and how little regard they have for scottish voters there is no prospect of anything but electoral wipeout. Even if labour started to listen to voters now it would take years to regain trust and they are a hell of a long way from even starting to listen to voters.

[pclive]

The first draft of Corbyn's speech at the conference last year (if only) - 

 

http://moflomojo.blogspot.com/2015/09/the-first-draft-of-jeremy-corbyns.html 

[Fide]

George has been at the cooking sherry again...

[BerwickMad]

Their vote share in England went up, but it's nonsense to suggest the reason for defeat was Scotland.

[Fide]

Their vote share in England went up, but it's nonsense to suggest the reason for defeat was Scotland.

 

You are, of course, quite correct:

 

Seats needed for UK parliament majority: 326.

Tory seats won in 2016: 330

Tory total if all SNP seats had been won by Labour: 330.

[Antlion]

You are, of course, quite correct:

Seats needed for UK parliament majority: 326.

Tory seats won in 2016: 330

Tory total if all SNP seats had been won by Labour: 330.

Ah, but in that filthy old drunk's head, Scots aren't just supported to vote Labour, we're supposed to make it clear months prior to the vote that our intentions are acceptable to the English. If we don't, and the English suspect we're stepping out of line by planning to vote for a party unacceptable to them, then they will simply vote Tory en masse as a precaution.

Welcome to George Foulke's proud Scotlandshire.

[Granny Danger]

Corbyn gave me a glimmer of hope that the Labour party could stand up to the tories but it's clear now that there is systematic division within the Parliamentary party. c***s like Chuka Umunna are so out of touch with the politics of most people who vote Labour that if we want a UK - wide party who can stand up against austerity and class warfare, we will need to rely on all the Blairites being deselected. Corbyn was elected as leader with an overwhelming majority and yet the vast majority of his MPs fervently disagree with him on all the big issues. Maybe if the TUC were to abandon the Labour party it would wake them up to just how disengaged they have come from the "Labour movement" that they talk about so much.

I agree with all of this but, as I've said before, I've lost sympathy for Corbyn's as he doesn't have the sense (or balls) to face the detractors in the PLP head on. Until he does then he deserves everything he gets.

[DrewDon]

Corbyn gave me a glimmer of hope that the Labour party could stand up to the tories but it's clear now that there is systematic division within the Parliamentary party. c***s like Chuka Umunna are so out of touch with the politics of most people who vote Labour that if we want a UK - wide party who can stand up against austerity and class warfare, we will need to rely on all the Blairites being deselected. Corbyn was elected as leader with an overwhelming majority and yet the vast majority of his MPs fervently disagree with him on all the big issues. Maybe if the TUC were to abandon the Labour party it would wake them up to just how disengaged they have come from the "Labour movement" that they talk about so much.

I think you might be confusing Labour voters with Labour members. 

[Arsenal till I die]

The biggest problem with seats in "middle england" is they contain all sorts of constituents. For Scottish voters, read Labour core voters in swing seats in England. FPTP if anything makes this worse as if the Tories win the seat, any centre ground voters who voted Labour in that seat mean absolutely nothing. Then there is the argument over what seats middle england contains. The Tories and New Labour both fucked Nuneaton and North Warwickshire over with privatisation of public transport and unemployment. If the Labour government had been Labour (regulation of the buses in Bedworth - they're infrequent in places and stagecoach miss buses out all the time, frequent buses in Nuneaton which bypass the horrifically congested centre, direct buses between the Leys and Coventry) these 2 seats probably wouldn't have fallen to the Tories. And yet the Bitterites say Nuneaton is an example of how Blairism would win Labour the day. My sides, my sides...

[invergowrie arab]

Man leaves labour party

http://m.heraldscotland.com/news/14405644.Questions_over_Murphy_s_Labour_membership_amid_claims_of_concern_about_Corbyn_s_leadership/?ref=twtrec

[mjw]

Man leaves labour party

http://m.heraldscotland.com/news/14405644.Questions_over_Murphy_s_Labour_membership_amid_claims_of_concern_about_Corbyn_s_leadership/?ref=twtrec

Maybe labour left him.

[FlyerTon]

Anyone think Jeremy Corbyn will contest the 2020 election, or will there be another leadership contest before then?

 

Dan Jarvis is ahead in the betting for next Labour Party leader:

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-labour-leader

 

 

As for the next Prime Minister, Bo-Jo is favourite with the bookies (Cameron has said he will step down before 2020)

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister

[Bishop Briggs]

I reckon that Corbyn will be hard to shift. If there is another leadership election, my money would on John McDonnell as the Left has a firm on the party in the constituencies. Dan Jarvis is a Blairite nonentity.

 

Borisconi is not liked by a large number of Tory MPs who pick the two candidates for the members' ballot. Gove versus Osborne (lots of backbench supporters) would be the logical contest. 

[Mr Bairn]

Some Tories on twitter murmuring things about Ruth Davidson as a future leader. It's almost a done deal that she's going to WM in 2020. The only question is will she stand in the seat currently held by David Mundell, or will she be parachuted into one of the home counties where the weigh the Conservative majority?

[Antlion]

Some Tories on twitter murmuring things about Ruth Davidson as a future leader. It's almost a done deal that she's going to WM in 2020. The only question is will she stand in the seat currently held by David Mundell, or will she be parachuted into one of the home counties where the weigh the Conservative majority?

A prospective PM who's banned from voting on English-only matters, or would she move to England (which would require a change of heart)? She's said repeatedly she doesn't want to live in England...