topcat(The most tip top) Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Tbf all we've been doing since like 2015 is getting results that paper over cracks. We'll never be good and will have performances like last night for 95% of the season yet continue to stink up the Premiership. My dog agrees 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 51 minutes ago, G51 said: FiveThirtyEight's predictions using the SPI index. Very surprised at St Johnstone having a 15% chance of going down - a new keeper and that team should be fine IMO. I hope you're enjoying Ian Darkes meltdown on Twitter as much as I am... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G51 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said: I hope you're enjoying Ian Darkes meltdown on Twitter as much as I am... i mean how can you even expect a goal if you don't know when it's going to arrive 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
accies1874 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 That's the spirit. It is important to remain positive.Tis the season x [emoji319][emoji318][emoji320] The nature of the league set up seems to allow that to happen. Not just you: us two years ago. We should never have stayed up, but Dundee were somehow worse. We were the same for several years under Gus McP. Scraping by, offering not much. I wonder if a change of set-up would help. It's a shame nobody ever talks about league reconstruction. I remember I used to get annoyed at St Mirren seemingly always finishing 10th or 11th without ever going down. Little did I know this would end up being our entire existence. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marly Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 I really fear for the Johnnies this season. I don't mean this in a "haha you've got no fans" way but it's hard to see a club with their diminishing support base being able to finance a promotion back to the top flight. We might never see them again.No fans but our support base is diminishing? How does that work then? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capt_oats Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 hours ago, G51 said: FiveThirtyEight's predictions using the SPI index. Very surprised at St Johnstone having a 15% chance of going down - a new keeper and that team should be fine IMO. 7th place and 10 points clear of the play-off you say? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Is it just me or do these indexes always show the team that are bottom of the league are most likely to be relegated, the team second bottom the next likely and so on? There doesn't seem to be much more to them than that. It should make the kind of allowances for games in hand and recent form that we would Do intuitively The point of them, if there is one, isn’t to rank teams positions by order of danger but to quantify that danger. If you support St Johnstone then you’re not too bothered how many teams are in more danger than the Saints. Their immediate concern is how safe their team is, which according to the stats is 85%But the idea that “St Johnstone could go down, but probably won’t” isn’t a revolutionary insight either Except to manic depressives in Perth 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ropy Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 3 hours ago, Szamo's_Ammo said: Is it just me or do these indexes always show the team that are bottom of the league are most likely to be relegated, the team second bottom the next likely and so on? There doesn't seem to be much more to them than that. You are not wrong but there are percentages too so it looks complex. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 FiveThirtyEight's predictions using the SPI index. Very surprised at St Johnstone having a 15% chance of going down - a new keeper and that team should be fine IMO.The FiveThirtyEight's models for elite football are generally fairly pish, so I doubt their Scottish football one will hold much water. The methodology is far too flimsy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 6 hours ago, craigkillie said: The FiveThirtyEight's models for elite football are generally fairly pish, so I doubt their Scottish football one will hold much water. The methodology is far too flimsy. Looking at the probabilities of relegation they add up to 150% which implies that they are assuming the play off final is a 50:50 chance History suggests otherwise 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMCs Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 12 hours ago, G51 said: FiveThirtyEight's predictions using the SPI index. Very surprised at St Johnstone having a 15% chance of going down - a new keeper and that team should be fine IMO. They weren't that accurate last season and this season they seem to have been saying that Barca were still the most likely side to win La Liga until very recently. They overweight previous seasons I think. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coventry Saint Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Updated league table (pending appeal in January) looking very interesting now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djchapsticks Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Coventry Saint said: Updated league table (pending appeal in January) looking very interesting now. What bizarre thing for the SPFL to do. Why update the table when there's no resolution yet? Lodging an appeal doesn't automatically reverse the decision. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coventry Saint Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, djchapsticks said: What bizarre thing for the SPFL to do. Why update the table when there's no resolution yet? Lodging an appeal doesn't automatically reverse the decision. I think it's at least an acknowledgement that they were wrong to award the points while there was chance of an appeal. Nobody's coming out of this looking good, mind. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 They weren't wrong to put the points on the table given that was their decision, but this is an acknowledgement that those points are not as rock solid as all the other points clubs have on the table. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ric Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 Don't get me wrong, I think even after the appeal they will reapply the points deduction, or deduct us points, but it's entirely right that while there is an appeals process those points should not be applied. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted December 26, 2020 Author Share Posted December 26, 2020 Table looks good. Be quite something if these games had to be played [emoji41] 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ropy Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 39 minutes ago, djchapsticks said: What bizarre thing for the SPFL to do. Why update the table when there's no resolution yet? Lodging an appeal doesn't automatically reverse the decision. The points should never have been allocated before all appeals were exhausted, takes us back to a sensible position, but Motherwell and Hamilton have been messed around due to no fault of their own. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishBhoy Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ric said: Don't get me wrong, I think even after the appeal they will reapply the points deduction, or deduct us points, but it's entirely right that while there is an appeals process those points should not be applied. That should have been how they done it from the get go. To come out and give Motherwell and Hamilton the points when there was even a chance of an appeal being lodged is just amateur hour, and a blind man could have seen this exact situation arising. There was nothing stopping them from making a statement outlining the forfeitures, with a paragraph at the end saying something like ‘league standings will reflect this decision pending appeal’ and everyone is covered when any eventuality plays out. The SPFL really don’t help themselves. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted December 26, 2020 Share Posted December 26, 2020 The points should never have been allocated before all appeals were exhausted, takes us back to a sensible position, but Motherwell and Hamilton have been messed around due to no fault of their own.How have they been messed around? They knew the situation, I doubt they've played any differently because of some points being on the table. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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