DeeTillEhDeh Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Can we add Dundee to the list - unless McPake goes we are only heading one way. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFC. Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Can’t believe any one of the teams from Dundee to Partick has a chance of getting in to a promotion play-off. An absolute rabble of a league. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RossBFaeDundee Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I look forward* to looking at this thread increasingly more often over the coming weeks as it becomes more and more relevant to us. *I don't, actually. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 38 minutes ago, RossBFaeDundee said: I look forward* to looking at this thread increasingly more often over the coming weeks as it becomes more and more relevant to us. *I don't, actually. Not as bad as that, surely, then again watched on Friday night 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RossBFaeDundee Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 33 minutes ago, ecto said: Not as bad as that, surely, then again watched on Friday night 7 points off bottom. It can easily get that bad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madton Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 11 hours ago, AyrshireTon said: We're two points worse off this season with a worse goal difference (mostly due to pumpings at Tannadice and Inverness) yet I seem to remember last season as being really awful until Greg Kiltie came on loan. Lol at Falkirk, though. We had a couple of good results over Xmas and New year, including beating County at Cappielow. We then went on an horrendous run of only 1 win in 13. The difference is last year we had a lot of dull draws, 13 in total, only 2 this season. We only lost 12 games last season whereas we have already lost 11 this year. Thankfully we have more wins under our belt than this stage last year. If our win ratio continues, we will be fine. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob1885 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Can’t believe any one of the teams from Dundee to Partick has a chance of getting in to a promotion play-off. An absolute rabble of a league. Its class ain't it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereismillar Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 (edited) Alloa are 1 point better off compared to the 22 games point last season, but no crappy Falkirk , we were in 8th place then and lie in 9th now, this is going to be harder to survive than then , teeth, Skin, and "tighter than a Gnat's chuff" come to mind . Edited January 26, 2020 by whereismillar 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 (edited) Whilst it's hilarious to see Dundee bottom just 4 points from second to bottom over 10 games is pretty tight. The team in second having a 50/50 record is wild. Only Dunfermline have a positive GD Edited January 26, 2020 by invergowrie arab 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, invergowrie arab said: Whilst it's hilarious to see Dundee bottom just 4 points from second to bottom over 10 games is pretty tight. The team in second having a 50/50 record is wild. Only Dunfermline have a positive GD The Dunfermline one is more bizarre given they had lost five straight before their victory over Dundee. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itzdrk Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 14 hours ago, Rudolph Hucker said: Just as well. Would’ve blown him over. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 (edited) OK, it’s that time of year again… I've actually been keeping track as we go this season but wasn’t going to post until after the new year. In terms of ratings I didn’t adjust 8 of the teams from their final rating last year, and I plugged Dundee and Arbroath in as marginally the strongest and weakest teams respectively From 1000 sims of the season from here on in… For survival: Lowest points for survival: 34 points More likely than not for survival : 40 points Greater than 90% chance of survival: 43 points For promotion play offs: Lowest points for 4th: 45 points More likely than not to be in playoffs: 51 points Greater than 90% chance of playoffs: 54 points I changed Utd’s current rating to that of Alloa and they still won the league 80% of the time. Think even the most pessimistic Arab can start relaxing even if Shankland gets injured. With the usual caveats that it tends not to predict much change in the current order unless one team is on a sudden change of form or has many games in hand, here are how the predictions have changed over the season Edited January 27, 2020 by Fuctifano 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poet of the Macabre Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Some commentary from that: Dundee going from title favourites pre-season to 0.3% chance by Christmas. Lol We've lost 10 of our 22 matches and only have a 5% chance of finishing bottom. This league is terrible. Our Top 4 hopes also dropped by more than 20% since Christmas. I'd love to see the results that have to happen for ICT's 0.2% title hope. Do you take into account January signings as part of the team rating or is that impossible to quantify? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 No, I never manually adjust ratings, it's purely based off results and margins of victory in games. The only manual inputs were putting Dundee in as slightly stronger than Utd (oops) and Arbroath as slightly weaker than QoS at the start of the season rather than taking over County and Falkirk's ratings. Also noticed that some of the % change from start of the season haven't been sorted to match the teams, will fix that next week 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Flash Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 23 hours ago, whereismillar said: Alloa are 1 point better off compared to the 22 games point last season, but no crappy Falkirk , we were in 8th place then and lie in 9th now, this is going to be harder to survive than then , teeth, Skin, and "tighter than a Gnat's chuff" come to mind . And you got 10 points off that terrible Queens team last season. That won’t happ......oh, wait....as you were. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itzdrk Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 What is the pre season column? I understand the rest. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 After zero games might have been an easier way to phrase it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RossBFaeDundee Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Fuctifano said: putting Dundee in as slightly stronger than Utd (oops) Your misplaced confidence is at least appreciated. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poet of the Macabre Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 I never really considered, until the last month or so that we could actually be in the bottom two but definitely don't see ourselves as 87.5% safe. We probably will get enough points to stay up but will end up 5th, 6th or 7th. Getting relegated in the play-off by either Falkirk or the wee team isn't worth thinking about tbh. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Grim reading for Thistle fans. Here's hoping Dundee Hibs it so we don't Falkirk it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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