Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[renton]

Just now, ayrmad said:

I never said it was about the virus, they could have piled the bodies up on the street and you'd still have moaned and whined about the lockdown, you'd better get used to this as it ain't going back to normal for a long while. 

It will though. There is only so much political capital than can be expended on a extraordinary situation, omly so much patience, and at some point society will affect it's own version of normality which will involve all the things it likes doing at the expense of freedoms of those weaker and more vulnerable. This trend will be accelerated by the recoveries outside our borders and the necessity to get the economy running. 

[ayrmad]

3 minutes ago, renton said:

It will though. There is only so much political capital than can be expended on a extraordinary situation, omly so much patience, and at some point society will affect it's own version of normality which will involve all the things it likes doing at the expense of freedoms of those weaker and more vulnerable. This trend will be accelerated by the recoveries outside our borders and the necessity to get the economy running. 

All that is still a while away. 

[madwullie]

21 minutes ago, virginton said:

If the purpose of the lockdown is to prevent an exponential increase in the infection rate then why does Sweden - where there has been no such lockdown for fully two months - still have a much lower per capita case rate and death rate than Scotland and the UK respectively? They should have literally millions of cases and the highest death toll in Europe right now going by this line of argument but they simply do not.

Some people got far too carried away about a brief period of rapid growth in cases and assumed that this would be a sustained trend - a straightforward comparison now shows that it wasn't. 

That's a good point and there's definitely a lot to be learned about Sweden. But almost every western country experienced exponential growth until they locked down. Maybe social distancing alone would have been enough?

I do think we'll see a very sharp rise in cases in places where the govt and/or the public don't take those measures seriously in the coming months tho. The virus hasn't got any less contagious 

[Todd_is_God]

30 minutes ago, virginton said:

Some people got far too carried away about a brief period of rapid growth in cases and assumed that this would be a sustained trend - a straightforward comparison now shows that it wasn't. 

Hypothetical question.

Had the virus not first popped up in a region of Italy which ultimately had a health system which was unable to cope, how many countries would have locked down rather than look to temporarily increase capacity and maybe encourage vulnerable groups yo be extra cautious?

I may have missed this as all the focus was on Italy, but how many other countries saw their healthcare systems overwhelmed?

Edited May 18, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[vikingTON]

4 minutes ago, renton said:

Isn't Sweden doing markedly worse than their neighbours who have far tighter lockdowns, and generally closer demographics, culture and connectivity to Sweden than to the UK, and thus a more direct comparison.

What do their neighbours have to with it? If no lockdown measures can only lead to an exponential growth in cases then Sweden should have far more cases per capita than any country in lockdown regardless of other factors: instead they're in the middle of the pack and way below certain, currently lockdown-addicted failed states like the UK. So there's nothing to actually suggest that exponential growth in cases will be the inevitable result of the UK not having a lockdown.

To be absolutely clear: a proper lockdown done early enough is a very good policy to deal with the problem. A Sweden-style alternative of increased public caution without recourse to a lockdown is a somewhat mixed bag at the moment - though has done far better than its detractors were positively rooting for when the UK decided otherwise. The shan UK lockdown that has failed on every single economic, social and public health criteria above 'well at least our health service hasn't completely imploded' is near the very bottom of the pile, just above the bleach-injecting moron in the White House.

[renton]

1 minute ago, ayrmad said:

All that is still a while away. 

Define a while. 

After July the Furlough scheme in this country becomes significantly weaker and more conditional. By then our nearest neighbours will be well out of their lockdowns and progressing more rapidly towards normality, no doubt boosted by a  large ECB stimulus package, the Americans will simply weather what ever they have to without recourse to further economic damage. China is already back up and rolling.

This is not a situation where we can set our own pace. There was a timer set by the aggregate of others efforts to solve this issue, and we will simply have to react as best we can to whatever state we are in when the music stops. After that it's Open for Business and Devil damn the hindmost.

[invergowrie arab]

53 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

It’s true though. If I called up family and friends and met them in the park for a chinwag the police could do nothing about it as they were shown to be doing nothing at CP. it can’t be one rule for one when it suits them 

Do it then and give us all peace

[tamthebam]

7 hours ago, ICTChris said:

When the lockdown easing starts, we should have a P&B Ruel Street meet up to continue this thread in real life.

P S. Bring yer ma

FTFY

[Gordon EF]

16 minutes ago, renton said:

Isn't Sweden doing markedly worse than their neighbours who have far tighter lockdowns, and generally closer demographics, culture and connectivity to Sweden than to the UK, and thus a more direct comparison.

Depends what you mean by markedly. In terms of cases, they're not massively ahead of the likes of Norway and Denmark (combined) per capita. 30k vs 20k for similar populations. They are a far bit ahead of deaths - 3.6k vs just under 1k.

[Gordon EF]

5 minutes ago, virginton said:

What do their neighbours have to with it? If no lockdown measures can only lead to an exponential growth in cases then Sweden should have far more cases per capita than any country in lockdown regardless of other factors: instead they're in the middle of the pack and way below certain, currently lockdown-addicted failed states like the UK. So there's nothing to actually suggest that exponential growth in cases will be the inevitable result of the UK not having a lockdown.

To be absolutely clear: a proper lockdown done early enough is a very good policy to deal with the problem. A Sweden-style alternative of increased public caution without recourse to a lockdown is a somewhat mixed bag at the moment - though has done far better than its detractors were positively rooting for when the UK decided otherwise. The shan UK lockdown that has failed on every single economic, social and public health criteria above 'well at least our health service hasn't completely imploded' is near the very bottom of the pile, just above the bleach-injecting moron in the White House.

Correct. Sweden have managed to keep growth linear without a lockdown.

[tamthebam]

13 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

Maybe will never get investigated, everybody at fault. The only party who might raise it over here are the TUV, as everyone else would have been in the Executive, so "culpable" in not implementing the recommendations. (Although SG say it was "acted upon". What does that mean, exactly?)

From what I know of the TUV they'd be asking why not enough witches were being burned and lamenting the lack of building of wicker men

[Todd_is_God]

17 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

All that is still a while away. 

I'm not sure it's as far away as you think.

Many parts of europe are already starting to get the wheels turning domestically, and in the countries where it is well under control tourism and international travel is being mooted to restart before the end of June.

Contrast that to here where not only are we still not allowed to meet family for at least another two weeks we are looking to start quarantining international passengers.

UK media has stopped excitedly reporting on cases soaring again elsewhere as it becomes clear that isn't happening.

It's not noticeable just now, but the spotlight will really start to shine on the incompetence of the UK & Scottish Governments when we see a sense of normality restored everywhere bar here

Edited May 18, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Granny Danger]

8 minutes ago, tamthebam said:

FTFY

Bring yer mask Shirley?

[renton]

19 minutes ago, virginton said:

What do their neighbours have to with it? If no lockdown measures can only lead to an exponential growth in cases then Sweden should have far more cases per capita than any country in lockdown regardless of other factors: instead they're in the middle of the pack and way below certain, currently lockdown-addicted failed states like the UK. So there's nothing to actually suggest that exponential growth in cases will be the inevitable result of the UK not having a lockdown.

To be absolutely clear: a proper lockdown done early enough is a very good policy to deal with the problem. A Sweden-style alternative of increased public caution without recourse to a lockdown is a somewhat mixed bag at the moment - though has done far better than its detractors were positively rooting for when the UK decided otherwise. The shan UK lockdown that has failed on every single economic, social and public health criteria above 'well at least our health service hasn't completely imploded' is near the very bottom of the pile, just above the bleach-injecting moron in the White House.

Not going to argue that the UK response has been wholly inadequate. Simply that the R effective value in a population must be helped by connectivity of that population. Some nations have an advantage in terms of a more widely separated populace, fewer more concentrated urban areas and fewer, large transport hubs and points of access. Thus, can afford different strategies, though it's Nordic neighbours who have enacted fuller lockdowns  have, according to this source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.france24.com/en/20200517-sweden-s-covid-19-strategy-has-caused-an-amplification-of-the-epidemic

Far lower deaths/million than Sweden.

I just dont think it follows that because Sweden can execute it, that attempting BoJo's initial instincts here would necessarily have led to similar outcomes. Once it became obvious that we were seeing infections across the UK we were fucked. The only way the UK could've escaped it's current trajectory was a total shutdown of borders and a lockdown very, very early in terms of caseloads. 

Edited May 18, 2020 by renton

[Thereisalight..]

24 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

All that is still a while away. 

Ah yes, 1st Jan 2021 when life reboots to the default 

[madwullie]

20 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

It's not noticeable just now, but the spotlight will really start to shine on the incompetence of the UK & Scottish Governments when we see a sense of normality restored everywhere bar here

I fucking hope so. With the exception of walking arsehole Piers Morgan and a bit of pathetic political point scoring up here, it's been sycophantic drivel up till now. 

[Dunning1874]

3 hours ago, oaksoft said:

No I don't know anyone with it but then I think we all agreed years ago that I am sad, lonely and bitter with no friends, no social life and apparently prefer the Tory manifesto as my source of pornography so I'm not a good benchmark. 

Once we start removing the lockdown, I can't see anything causing it to be re-introduced unless the NHS is overwhelmed or infections and deaths go through the roof.

I understand the risks, right now, I'm choosing to believe that we're probably already over the hump in terms of new daily infections and daily deaths and that we need to attempt to lift restrictions to see what happens. IMO, we now need to see if we can free the majority of the herd and focus and isolating the vulnerable. There's an argument for saying we should have adopted that approach from day one but hindsight is like that. We can't see if we can change tack without trying stuff like this. England seem to have gone a bit too quickly for me but at least they are trying. We can't stay in lockdown forever. I said right at the start that after about 12 weeks people would stop complying and I still think that. We're at week 8 or 9 now (lost count) so it's getting close to that now.

 

While there are no guarantees, avoiding any significant increase in infections/deaths or pressure on the NHS on the easing of lockdown will surely be considerably more likely if we have the infrastructure for TTI ready so we can properly respond if there any localised spikes and stop it spreading. England doesn't and we won't, even though this is what they should have spent the entirety of lockdown preparing for.

[ayrmad]

4 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

If restrictions are lifted and no major spike in cases arises, this will all be over much faster than you think.

 

I'm not bothered either way, I'm not in here whining like a fandan every other day about the imposition of the lockdown, football in front of large crowds, drinking in rammed pubs and eating in rammed restaurants are all quite a while away. 

Tory governments don't extend the time period for throwing cash away for no reason. 

[Thereisalight..]

9 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

If restrictions are lifted and no major spike in cases arises, this will all be over much faster than you think.

 

Aye but what about the second wave, then the winter, then covid20

[madwullie]

23 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

While there are no guarantees, avoiding any significant increase in infections/deaths or pressure on the NHS on the easing of lockdown will surely be considerably more likely if we have the infrastructure for TTI ready so we can properly respond if there any localised spikes and stop it spreading. England doesn't and we won't, even though this is what they should have spent the entirety of lockdown preparing for.

It's so fucking stupid. And frankly a waste of a our fucking time. And goodwill. 

Edited May 18, 2020 by madwullie