Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[superbigal]

On 30/11/2020 at 15:23, superbigal said:

 

 

As ScotGov ignored my recommendations last Tuesday, It is time for another overall review and look at each council with  changes coming tomorrow.  We can look back in time from 7 day figures to November 13th and compare with, 7 day figures to 4th December.   Basically progress for all councils in the last documented 21 days. The data 13th November was the day before all the moves to Tier 4 etc.  So those councils now have about 14 days of data in the new higher tier 4 restrictions.

Overall cases per 100K were 141.5 in Scotland and are now 98.5. That is a decrease overall of 30.39% in a period of 21 days,  of which 14 days were in higher restrictions.   

My observations would say that the restrictions do appear to be working. with hugely more progress in Tier 4 areas than previously when in Tier 3.  Also it is quite clear the populated areas in Tier 3 are struggling to reduce their numbers. 

Conclusion Tier 4 worked even though the School Bashers may deny it.  

 

I now have the last 21 days of Data for each Council.

Start with the tier 4 Councils and move down to Tier 1    My comments  Bold if significant

East Ayrshire  Tier 4   172.1 to 127.0    Decrease  26.20%    Worth pointing out hardly any reduction in latest 7 days.

East Dunbartonshire  Tier 4   224.6 to 104.0    Decrease 53.69%   Good guys but Tier 3 for now.

East Renfrewshire  Tier4  197.8 to 137.1  Decrease 30.68%     Bang on the national average for decrease. Tier 3 for sure.

Glasgow City  Tier 4   275.6 to 150.2   Decrease 45.50%   I believe this does prove Tier 4 restrictions work as Glasgow stubbornly refused to move for many weeks.   Tier 3

North Lanarkshire  Tier 4  237.6 to 147.9   Decrease  37.75%   More good progress to Tier 3

Renfrewshire  Tier 4  241.8 to 158.0    Decrease  34.65%    A huge decrease in last week. Finally brains engaged. Tier 3

South Ayrshire  Tier 4  159.0 to 94.1   Decrease  40.81%    Another huge decrease week. Tier 3

South Lanarkshire  Tier 4   229.3 to 123.5  Decrease  46.14%   Another where the penny has finally dropped. Huge drop last 7 days.  Tier 3

Stirling Tier 4  167.7 to 80.7   Decrease   51.87%        Another with a great week. Great chance of double promotion to Tier 2

West Dunbartonshire  Tier 4   181.0 to 76.5  Decrease 57.73%    Another real chance of Tier 4 to Tier 2

West Lothian   Tier 4  158.4 to 108.7   Decrease 31.37%   Real good week.  Tier 3

Angus Tier 3   84.3 to 56.8   Decrease 32.62%    Nailed on promotion back to Tier 2  Apart from Brechin City to Highland League.

City Of Edinburgh  Tier 3  86.9 to 68.4  Decrease 21.28%     Much slower decrease last 7 days. Will it deny them Tier 2  Should not .    

Clackmannanshire  Tier 3    99.0 to 211.5  increase  113.63 %    Although it looks bad the population is only circa 45K and cases is 109 people.  Should stay tier 3 but if anyone was getting Tier 4 it would be them. Sauchie appears to be the epicentre of bad behaviour just now.

Dundee City  Tier 3   138.0 to 107.8   Decrease 21.88%  Dundee had a really bad last 7 days so guaranteed to now stay Tier 3

Falkirk   Tier 3     88.3 to 66.5  Decrease 24.68%    Bad week of increases. If no Tier 2 last week then hard to see this week.

Fife Tier 3   143.0 to 103.3  Decrease 27.76%   Poor week so like Dundee stay in Tier 3

Inverclyde  Tier 3   101.5 to 54.0   Decrease 46.79    This council seems to go up and down like a whores nickers. Best decrease in last week of all councils.  Unsure how this will go.

Midlothian  Tier 3   58.4 to 86.5   Increase 48.11%   Why defeat was snatched from the jaws of victory. Still rising bad week again. 

Perth & Kinross Tier 3   88.8 to 92.8  Increase 4.50%  Tory farmers still having too many harvesting parties. Stay Tier 3

North Ayrshire  Tier 3  139.5  to 142.5  Increase 2.15%    A prime council that shows the effectiveness of Tier 4 over Tier 3, as all their neighbours hugely out perform these bad guys.

Aberdeen City Tier 2   55.5 to 74.3    Increase 33.87%     A better last 7 days should keep them in Tier 2 just.

Aberdeenshire Tier 2   53.2 to 80.4    Increase 51.12 %    A better last 7 days should keep them in Tier 2 just.

Argyll & Bute  Tier 2    31.4 to 165.4   Increase 426.6%   Eyewatering cases total of 123 in Garelochhead. Is this dodgy sailors ?   Lock them all on a submarine and sink it.

Dumfries & Galloway  Tier 2   51.1 to 22.8  Decrease 55.38%    These teuchters should surely now join their highland friends in tier 1

East Lothian   Tier 2  60.7 to 67.2   Increase 10.71%   Tier 2 freedom boosting numbers ?

Scottish Borders  Tier 2  61.5 to 34.6  Decrease 43.74%   Now England out of lockdown this is nailed on Tier 1 promotion.

Highland  Tier 1    20.4 to 10.6 Decrease 48.03%  I really wonder what you need to do to get to the holy grail. These people behave even when in tier 1.  Must go to Tier 0

Moray   Tier 1  32.4 to 11.5  Decrease 64.50%    Same comments as Highlands

Na h-Eileanan Siar  Tier 1   22.5 to 15.0 Decrease 33.33%    Basically was 6 case and now 4   get them in the holy grail

Orkney Tier 1   4.5 to 4.5 No change   1 Case get them in Tier 0

Shetlands Tier 1   0 to 4.4  (Was 0 cases and now 1 cases.  Get them in Tier 0)

Edited December 7, 2020 by superbigal

[Glen Sannox]

17 minutes ago, 101 said:

Before Christmas? No chance.

I feared that.

[renton]

Interesting initial impressions from the mass testing event in Slovakia:

https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2020/mass-testing-short-period-contact-restrictions-dramatically-reduced-sars-cov-2

[Aufc]

Looks like one of the teachers in my wee lads nursery may have it. Good luck to the mrs having to isolate with that wee gobshite for two weeks

[invergowrie arab]

With apologies to @DeeTillEhDeh Dundee has had a shocker of a week.

There goes my hopes of a Guinness with my phoenix chilli burger this weekend 

[No_Problemo]

14 minutes ago, superbigal said:

As ScotGov ignored my recommendations last Tuesday, It is time for another overall review and look at each council with  changes coming tomorrow.  We can look back in time from 7 day figures to November 13th and compare with, 7 day figures to 4th December.   Basically progress for all councils in the last documented 21 days. The data 13th November was the day before all the moves to Tier 4 etc.  So those councils now have about 14 days of data in the new higher tier 4 restrictions.

Overall cases per 100K were 141.5 in Scotland and are now 98.5. That is a decrease overall of 30.39% in a period of 21 days,  of which 14 days were in higher restrictions.   

My observations would say that the restrictions do appear to be working. with hugely more progress in Tier 4 areas than previously when in Tier 3.  Also it is quite clear the populated areas in Tier 3 are struggling to reduce their numbers. 

Conclusion Tier 4 worked even though the School Bashers may deny it.  

 

I now have the last 21 days of Data for each Council.

Start with the tier 4 Councils and move down to Tier 1    My comments  Bold if significant

East Ayrshire  Tier 4   172.1 to 127.0    Decrease  26.20%    Worth pointing out hardly any reduction in latest 7 days.

East Dunbartonshire  Tier 4   224.6 to 104.0    Decrease 53.69%   Good guys but Tier 3 for now.

East Renfrewshire  Tier4  197.8 to 137.1  Decrease 30.68%     Bang on the national average for decrease. Tier 3 for sure.

Glasgow City  Tier 4   275.6 to 150.2   Decrease 45.50%   I believe this does prove Tier 4 restrictions work as Glasgow stubbornly refused to move for many weeks.   Tier 3

North Lanarkshire  Tier 4  237.6 to 147.9   Decrease  37.75%   More good progress to Tier 3

Renfrewshire  Tier 4  241.8 to 158.0    Decrease  34.65%    A huge decrease in last week. Finally brains engaged. Tier 3

South Ayrshire  Tier 4  159.0 to 94.1   Decrease  40.81%    Another huge decrease week. Tier 3

South Lanarkshire  Tier 4   229.3 to 123.5  Decrease  46.14%   Another where the penny has finally dropped. Huge drop last 7 days.  Tier 3

Stirling Tier 4  167.7 to 80.7   Decrease   51.87%        Another with a great week. Great chance of double promotion to Tier 2

West Dunbartonshire  Tier 4   181.0 to 76.5  Decrease 57.73%    Another real chance of Tier 4 to Tier 2

West Lothian   Tier 4  158.4 to 108.7   Decrease 31.37%   Real good week.  Tier 3

Angus Tier 3   84.3 to 56.8   Decrease 32.62%    Nailed on promotion back to Tier 2  Apart from Brechin City to Highland League.

City Of Edinburgh  Tier 3  86.9 to 68.4  Decrease 21.28%     Much slower decrease last 7 days. Will it deny them Tier 2  Should not .    

Clackmannanshire  Tier 3    99.0 to 211.5  increase  113.63 %    Although it looks bad the population is only circa 45K and cases is 109 people.  Should stay tier 3 but if anyone was getting Tier 4 it would be them. Sauchie appears to be the epicentre of bad behaviour just now.

Dundee City  Tier 3   138.0 to 107.8   Decrease 21.88%  Dundee had a really bad last 7 days so guaranteed to now stay Tier 3

Falkirk   Tier 3     88.3 to 66.5  Decrease 24.68%    Bad week of increases. If no Tier 2 last week then hard to see this week.

Fife Tier 3   143.0 to 103.3  Decrease 27.76%   Poor week so like Dundee stay in Tier 3

Inverclyde  Tier 3   101.5 to 54.0   Decrease 46.79    This council seems to go up and down like a whores nickers. Best decrease in last week of all councils.  Unsure how this will go.

Midlothian  Tier 3   58.4 to 86.5   Increase 48.11%   Why defeat was snatched from the jaws of victory. Still rising bad week again. 

Perth & Kinross Tier 3   88.8 to 92.8  Increase 4.50%  Tory farmers still having too many harvesting parties. Stay Tier 3

North Ayrshire  Tier 3  139.5  to 142.5  Increase 2.15%    A prime council that shows the effectiveness of Tier 4 over Tier 3, as all their neighbours hugely out perform these bad guys.

Aberdeen City Tier 2   55.5 to 74.3    Increase 33.87%     A better last 7 days should keep them in Tier 2 just.

Aberdeenshire Tier 2   53.2 to 80.4    Increase 51.12 %    A better last 7 days should keep them in Tier 2 just.

Argyll & Bute  Tier 2    31.4 to 165.4   Increase 426.6%   Eyewatering cases total of 123 in Garelochhead. Is this dodgy sailors ?   Lock them all on a submarine and sink it.

Dumfries & Galloway  Tier 2   51.1 to 22.8  Decrease 55.38%    These teuchters should surely now join their highland friends in tier 1

East Lothian   Tier 2  60.7 to 67.2   Increase 10.71%   Tier 2 freedom boosting numbers ?

Scottish Borders  Tier 2  61.5 to 34.6  Decrease 43.74%   Now England out of lockdown this is nailed on Tier 1 promotion.

Highland  Tier 1    20.4 to 10.6 Decrease 48.03%  I really wonder what you need to do to get to the holy grail. These people behave even when in tier 1.  Must go to Tier 0

Moray   Tier 1  32.4 to 11.5  Decrease 64.50%    Same comments as Highlands

Na h-Eileanan Siar  Tier 1   22.5 to 15.0 Decrease 33.33%    Basically was 6 case and now 4   get them in the holy grail

Orkney Tier 1   4.5 to 4.5 No change   1 Case get them in Tier 0

Shetlands Tier 1   0 to 4.4  (Was 0 cases and now 1 cases.  Get them in Tier 0)

If the Highlands and Moray don’t go to tier zero then the rest of us might as well give up. 

[vikingTON]

I'm sure that the SG will once more be guided solely by The Science and chuck Argyll and Bute into lockdown and Inverclyde into creamy pints territory just in time for Christmas.

Spoiler

 

[pandarilla]

Paris air show in June cancelled. Organisers were not given any assurances measures will have been removed that would allow the show to take place as normal. Isle of Man TT races fell last week for much the same reasons. Seems very premature to me.

I thought that too but when you think of the amount of work and planning that must go into them and the cost involved, someone has to make the call , a  30 % chance of cancelation or something like that versus normal years  would probably considered too high to bother laying the groundwork.  

This seems absolutely mental.

 

Yes there might have to be some adaptions but giving up on major events for 2 years because of this particular pandemic is crazy. We've got much better treatments, successful vaccines being rolled out imminently, and last summer proved that it can go down quite substantially during the better weather.

 

I'd be raging if i was a regular attender.

With apologies to [mention=22650]DeeTillEhDeh[/mention] Dundee has had a shocker of a week.

There goes my hopes of a Guinness with my phoenix chilli burger this weekend 

This news has absolutely crushed me. Teaching in tier 3 is a giant pain in the arse - and i was desperately hoping for a wee bit of relief from the masks.

 

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

2 hours ago, No_Problemo said:

If the Highlands and Moray don’t go to tier zero then the rest of us might as well give up. 

I cant lie, id like to see Moray get fucked over because I hate Douglas Ross. 

[invergowrie arab]

25 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

This seems absolutely mental.

 

Yes there might have to be some adaptions but giving up on major events for 2 years because of this particular pandemic is crazy. We've got much better treatments, successful vaccines being rolled out imminently, and last summer proved that it can go down quite substantially during the better weather.

 

I'd be raging if i was a regular attender.

This news has absolutely crushed me. Teaching in tier 3 is a giant pain in the arse - and i was desperately hoping for a wee bit of relief from the masks.

 

Get them out in the fresh air. Practical application of whatever it is you teach.

You can then stand and watch them with your hip flask and fags.

[s_dog]

3 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

Am I reading this correctly?  Only one place in tier 3 worse than the last week and nowhere in tier 4 worse.

Yep pretty much, though it is nearly a week out of date now. It does show that while Level 4 restrictions are shit, they have worked.

travellingtabby's data is really well presented, but if I'm being honest, superbigal's post is far more informative! 

[George Parr]

Argyll and Bute is a weird one. Vast swathes of the council area with minimal cases but a jump to Tier 3 probably on the cards if you measure by numbers alone. Fucking Faslane.

[superbigal]

Am I reading this correctly?  Only one place in tier 3 worse than the last week and nowhere in tier 4 worse.

A number of tier 3 councils had increases in the last 7 published days. I am showing 21 days on my thread. Dundee and Fife as examples both showed increases in last 7 days. Many tier 4 councils had some huge decreases in the corresponding recent 7 days. I note this in my comments.

 

[Granny Danger]

13 minutes ago, superbigal said:

A number of tier 3 councils had increases in the last 7 published days. I am showing 21 days on my thread. Dundee and Fife as examples both showed increases in last 7 days. Many tier 4 councils had some huge decreases in the corresponding recent 7 days. I note this in my comments.

 

As a resident of West Angus and someone who works in Dundee I hope they don’t change the status of Angus before Dundee.

[Billy Jean King]

Argyll and Bute is a weird one. Vast swathes of the council area with minimal cases but a jump to Tier 3 probably on the cards if you measure by numbers alone. Fucking Faslane.

Isnt it the Faslane outbreak or is it not classed as Argyll and Bute. Just assumed it had to be that.

[renton]

4 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

56 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Argyll and Bute is a weird one. Vast swathes of the council area with minimal cases but a jump to Tier 3 probably on the cards if you measure by numbers alone. Fucking Faslane.

Isnt it the Faslane outbreak or is it not classed as Argyll and Bute. Just assumed it had to be that.

It is that. Probably will spare Argyll and Bute an increase in tiers as its a known, localised cluster, rather than an unexplained increase in community transmission.

[Deanburn Dave]

Yes in blue with a metallic finish. 

^^^^^^
Big Team found.......Bo'ness United

[DeeTillEhDeh]

With apologies to [mention=22650]DeeTillEhDeh[/mention] Dundee has had a shocker of a week. There goes my hopes of a Guinness with my phoenix chilli burger this weekend  

 

Your apology is accepted. Seems to be very localised - Perth Road accounted for a fifth of all cases in the last 7 days - 29 cases.

 

Bloody students.

 

[emoji12]

 

St Mary's and Ardler - 14 cases.

 

Everywhere else is single figures.

 

 

 

[Robin.Hood]

50 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Your apology is accepted. Seems to be very localised - Perth Road accounted for a fifth of all cases in the last 7 days - 29 cases.

 

Bloody students.

 

 

St Mary's and Ardler - 14 cases.

 

Everywhere else is single figures.

 

 

 

Ken they need to stop putting us together. I see Turriff is not doing good again

[Derry Alli]

Places like St Mary's and Ardler shouldn't be in Dundee anyway. Sad news about the Perth Rd but it's just those pesky students, witrthelyk?!