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23 minutes ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

I think that raises the question though of whether current restrictions and the substantial damage they do to various other aspects of people’s lives (particularly to employment and the economy) are justified to keep schools open if they are driving huge case loads. It’s fine saying that the restrictions are working to let us keep schools open, but is the current state of affairs an acceptable balance? 

I would question that it is.

Problem is, a lot of this ends up being really hard to test in a controlled manner. Because who'd be a control group in that scenario?

There are various open questions here.

How important are schools in driving case loads? Well, if we did mass testing across all schools we could at least develop an idea of how much is transmitted within schools, but we don't have a well developed enough surveillance apparatus to be sure how much is getting back out into the community or where the index cases were.

What is the minimum background community prevelance required to drive significant transmission through schools? We didn't see significant impacts of school openings in many LAs and the conjecture on this thread was that there wasn't enough community cases to drive the virus into schools. So where is the minimum 7 day rate/100K... 5, 10, 20, 300, 600? Knowing that would go some way to understanding the local importance of school closures on containing the virus.

Do school closures by themselves lower R enough? Scot Gov analysis reckoned R was above 1 in August, the week before schools opened. Hence the hospitality ban. The genealogical survey suggests this wave of the virus is distinct and imported from that we suffered through in Spring. Clearly, other interventions, or lack thereof have made as much or a bigger impact on where we are today, beyond opening primary and secondary education back up, not to mention the clearly obvious issues of opening up tertiary education.

What level of restrictions are necessary to drive down case loads reliably? Even with bans on household socialising and hospitality. In some tier 3 areas of high population density and metropolitan in nature, all tier 3 has done is kept case loads steady, whereas tier 4 managed to drive cases down by a considerable extent.

Does that mean that beyond any arguments about schools, the best way of getting more stuff open quicker is not to f**k around with tiers but to impose draconian lockdowns as soon as case loads peak above a relatively low number? Would that on balance leave society with more time open until vaccination is at a good level? Or would it make planning for businesses far more chaotic with too much opening and closing?

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17 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

You are right in that this is the only question that needs to be asked in terms of any restriction in place. Cost/benefit.

The problem in this thread as I see it is people repeatedly painting the benefit aspect of keeping schools open for Scotgov as winning votes from shite parents who dont want to look after their kids. It's an extremely poor stance, and one that conveniently ignores colossal social problems in our country.

Those problems are, IMO, the ones that have been taken into account by the govt when making their attempt to balance restrictions.

The correctness of the balance is wholly subjective though.

In all honesty, leaving behind any childish "shut the schools so folk can get a pint" chat, I dont know how the balance could be readressed if we did opt to close or move to blended learning. If schools have to close to drive down infection rates, they would likely be the first thing to re open. If they are last to close it stands to reason they would be seen as first to open.

You might argue that in that scenario, a few weeks of that could drive rates down sufficiently that we can have more things normal at an acceptable rate of virus transmission, but to be honest, if you gave yourself say 2 or 3 months of that, by that time if the vaccine hasnt been administered in sufficient quantity to drive down NHS loading, I'd be directing my ire towards scotgov over that and nothing else.

The government now have the tools to protect the vulnerable. If they arent utilised in a timely fashion, that will be the bighest scandal so far of this crisis IMO.

aye am not buying this overly black and white VT stance of "the schools must stay open otherwise moaning faced parents won't vote snp because they didn't want to look after their kids"  that is surely a load of pish and whilst there are undoubtable a number of parents who have children then go on to not put them first and shove them off to anywhere that'll take them off their hands  , which in most cases are schools , I simply don't believe that they exist in  enough  numbers to swing and miss an election, champ

 

Edited by effeffsee_the2nd
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11 minutes ago, parsforlife said:

Edinburgh’s testing site is the airport I believe.

That’s where I went for my test a few months back, but I’ve seen The Usher Hall is being used so either they’ve got 2 now or it’s no longer at the airport.

Edited by Honest_Man#1
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1 minute ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

That’s where I went for my test a few months back, but I’ve sent The Usher Hall is being used so either they’ve got 2 now or it’s no longer at the airport.

There are three walk in centres in Edinburgh now, alongside the drive-thru at the airport.

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57 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

Airport sites ??? If your referring to Prestwick that's a pop up one, not always in use. Don't know of any other airport testing centres. The airports are screaming for testing facilities for obvious reasons.

Just on that Heathrow have announced T4 to remain closed in 2021 as they say no uptake in demand or obvious prospect of relaxation in test and isolation for summer 2021. Very mixed messages starting to appear over just how long we are expecting measures like that to last.

The prestwick one has been open every day since late May. It’s also opening on Christmas Day and New Year .  There’s also ones at Glasgow and Edinburgh airports that have been open since the same time. At the prestwick one there’s about 50 staff on site at the one time, not that I’m saying they shouldn’t be well looked after but there’s endless supplies of snacks and top quality sandwiches/meals and there is so much waste . I know all this because I’ve done work there 

Edited by Thereisalight..
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Prestwick, Glasgow and Edinburgh are all “free” testing sites 

I know Prestwick is free but isn't it "pop up" ie outside in the car park. It's THE testing site for NHS in South Ayrshire apart from the temporary asymptomatic sites set up recently.

 

Seems confusion here between NHS testing sites that just happen to be in the vicinity of an airport and airport testing facilities being demanded by travel industries for passenger testing.

 

You do realise an NHS testing facility being quiet is a positive thing ? Also of course they will need to be open Christmas day just like hospitals, people are as likely to develop C19 on Christmas day as any other day and given the household relaxation prompt testing will be even more important

 

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2 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

I know Prestwick is free but isn't it "pop up" ie outside in the car park. It's THE testing site for NHS in South Ayrshire apart from the temporary asymptomatic sites set up recently.

Seems confusion here between NHS testing sites that just happen to be in the vicinity of an airport and airport testing facilities being demanded by travel industries for passenger testing.

You do realise an NHS testing facility being quiet is a positive thing ?

Yeah it’s out in the car park but it’s “permanent”. They reckon it will be in use until at least Sept 2021

with the airport ones I mentioned in the previous post they’re a separate entity from the travel industry ones. They’re NHS run. Think they chose the airport car parks as folk can drive through them and there’s plenty of space for the testing/site cabins etc 

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7 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

I know Prestwick is free but isn't it "pop up" ie outside in the car park. It's THE testing site for NHS in South Ayrshire apart from the temporary asymptomatic sites set up recently.

 

Seems confusion here between NHS testing sites that just happen to be in the vicinity of an airport and airport testing facilities being demanded by travel industries for passenger testing.

 

You do realise an NHS testing facility being quiet is a positive thing ? Also of course they will need to be open Christmas day just like hospitals, people are as likely to develop C19 on Christmas day as any other day and given the household relaxation prompt testing will be even more important

 

Yes you seem to have gotten confused I think as thereisalight only mentioned airport based testing sites, which there are quite a few of, but you have thought he was talking about testing at airports for travellers.

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Yes you seem to have gotten confused I think as thereisalight only mentioned airport based testing sites, which there are quite a few of, but you have thought he was talking about testing at airports for travellers.
I didn't it was a couple of posts afterwards that brought that up. I live within walking distance of the airport I know exactly what goes on at the site.
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1 minute ago, Billy Jean King said:

If NS thinks half of Ayrshire ISN'T going to flock to Glasgow Christmas shopping this weekend she's utterly deluded. The likes of Silverburn will be rammed. If she thinks anyone could do their Christmas shopping in the likes of Irvine or Kilmarnock again she's bonkers.
 

Yeah, and it seems likely we will start to see case loads increasing again as a result.

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2 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:
9 minutes ago, Honest_Man#1 said:
Yes you seem to have gotten confused I think as thereisalight only mentioned airport based testing sites, which there are quite a few of, but you have thought he was talking about testing at airports for travellers.

I didn't it was a couple of posts afterwards that brought that up. I live within walking distance of the airport I know exactly what goes on at the site.

You did. This was his initial post:

1 hour ago, Thereisalight.. said:

 

The money being chucked at Test and Protect as well is astonishing. The airport sites must cost thousands per day to run. Also is there really any need for the centres to be open and testing folk on Christmas Day and New Years Day 😑

To which you responded:

1 hour ago, Billy Jean King said:

Airport sites ??? If your referring to Prestwick that's a pop up one, not always in use. Don't know of any other airport testing centres. The airports are screaming for testing facilities for obvious reasons.

Just on that Heathrow have announced T4 to remain closed in 2021 as they say no uptake in demand or obvious prospect of relaxation in test and isolation for summer 2021. Very mixed messages starting to appear over just how long we are expecting measures like that to last.

He is talking about the numerous airport based testing centres, and you have mistakenly thought he was talking about airport testing for travellers. Either you’ve gotten confused, or you’re just completely wrong with the above post.

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