Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Steven W]

12 minutes ago, renton said:

Case loads do seem to have plateaued in the last week. Hospital numbers should keep dropping for the next couple of weeks and by then we should be seeing the impact of vaccinations on reducing hospitalizations and deaths that will break the direct link between case numbers and pressure on the NHS.

Still though, in the short term, a flat case load of between 900 and 800 a day will be enough for Scot Gov to chuck any loosening of restrictions into the long grass. Maybe it will start to reduce again over the next week to ten days. 

Can see them rowing back on P1-3 return to school.

Is there any explanation as to why the numbers have platuaued (perhaps even potentially rising again) at such  a high level. These numbers would suggest that this lockdown, although bringing them down from a very high level, has on the whole been a failure. And with that mind where do we go next with this? I get the feeling it could this half arsed lockdown through to May or even June.

[Gaz]

Gon someone explain to me why the government are lauding themselves for meeting a target of 'offering' a jag to folk.

Surely there's more to this than just asking someone "do you want a jag?" and therefore that counting as an offer, regardless of response or actual date of jag?

[Jamie_B]

3 minutes ago, Gaz said:

Gon someone explain to me why the government are lauding themselves for meeting a target of 'offering' a jag to folk.

Surely there's more to this than just asking someone "do you want a jag?" and therefore that counting as an offer, regardless of response or actual date of jag?

Because it is a vague term which allows them to claim achievements they haven't yet accomplished - like a couple of weeks ago when they claimed they'd "offered" a vaccine to every "eligible" care home resident. That actually turned out to mean they'd injected about 81% of the care home population because about 10% were ineligible at that point due to ongoing COVID outbreaks and of those who had been offered only 90% had actually been injected.

Desperately hoping that in early course this week we get some clarity on what the next steps are with lockdown and hopefully hear more about exactly where the vaccine supply sits. If younger schoolkids don't go back a week on Monday I'll basically completely lose my shit as the father of two kids who would be due to go back that day. Canning that would seem utterly pointless IMO.

[superbigal]

18 minutes ago, Steven W said:

Can see them rowing back on P1-3 return to school.

Is there any explanation as to why the numbers have platuaued (perhaps even potentially rising again) at such  a high level. These numbers would suggest that this lockdown, although bringing them down from a very high level, has on the whole been a failure. And with that mind where do we go next with this? I get the feeling it could this half arsed lockdown through to May or even June.

I think you will find the citizens of Aberdeen, Dundee & Edinburgh etc would not agree, They are well below levels of late last summer. 

Edited February 14, 2021 by superbigal

[Gaz]

9 minutes ago, Jamie_Beatson said:

Because it is a vague term which allows them to claim achievements they haven't yet accomplished - like a couple of weeks ago when they claimed they'd "offered" a vaccine to every "eligible" care home resident. That actually turned out to mean they'd injected about 81% of the care home population because about 10% were ineligible at that point due to ongoing COVID outbreaks and of those who had been offered only 90% had actually been injected.

Desperately hoping that in early course this week we get some clarity on what the next steps are with lockdown and hopefully hear more about exactly where the vaccine supply sits. If younger schoolkids don't go back a week on Monday I'll basically completely lose my shit as the father of two kids who would be due to go back that day. Canning that would seem utterly pointless IMO.

Those were my cynical thoughts, I just wondered if it was something more nuanced than that.

[Scosha]

24 minutes ago, Blootoon87 said:

50329 jagged in the last 24 hours.

We must have hit 400,000 jags this week? 

[Steven W]

4 minutes ago, superbigal said:

I think you will find the citizens of Aberdeen, Dundee & Edinburgh etc would not agree, They are well below levels of late last summer. 

As indeed your daily posts show (great effort btw).

But this just makes it even more frustrating as the mood music seems to be that they're edging towards looking at numbers nationally again.  Feels like we're just going to be stuck in lockdown limbo for months.

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, invergowrie arab said:

Dundee crashing through a barrier that would have seen us enjoying indoor pints and kissing a couple of months ago before vaccines were even invented.

I think what the "It's only a pint" brigade don't get is that the ability to have a pint, go to the gym, get a haircut etc are as much about symbols of progress as the act themselves.

What's getting me down isn't necessarily not getting a pint but having no idea what's required to progress.

I thought the August framework was quite clear but the infections levels equating to lockdown levels seems to have been binned now. 

Leitch seems to be prepping the ground for national measures replacing the LA numbers with talk of having to go below 50 nationally

 The information vacuum is the thing that's now pissing me off.

 

Not going for a pint with you.

[superbigal]

Aberdeen 11th Feb 2021, 39.4 per 100K,   27th Sep 2020, 48.5 per 100k

Dundee  11th Feb 2021,  46.2  per 100k    27th Sep 2020,  99.2 per 100k

Edinburgh 11th Feb 2021,  62.5 per 100k       27th Sep 2020, 85.5 per 100k

Even Glasgow   11th Feb 2021,  144.5 per 100k     27th Sep 2020,  192.4 per 100k

 

Strangely Scotland overall was at 66.1 back then so the cities have done rather well this time around.

 

Enough said

 

Edited February 14, 2021 by superbigal

[Granny Danger]

6 minutes ago, Scosha said:

We must have hit 400,000 jags this week? 

From Monday to yesterday - 357,397.

[Billy Jean King]

Can see them rowing back on P1-3 return to school.
Is there any explanation as to why the numbers have platuaued (perhaps even potentially rising again) at such  a high level. These numbers would suggest that this lockdown, although bringing them down from a very high level, has on the whole been a failure. And with that mind where do we go next with this? I get the feeling it could this half arsed lockdown through to May or even June.

Eh lockdown has been a failure. Don't you read the Superbigal posts ? What do you think has caused those sustained falls if not the measures in place ?

[invergowrie arab]

3 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Not going for a pint with you.

You don't have to have a pint if you don't want to.

[Ron Aldo]

I've said it before but case numbers need to become less and less of a benchmark the further we get into the vaccination program.

Cases in Scotland seem to have plateaued between 800-1000 despite the restrictions and maybe its just a case of that being the "natural" level. We accept a certain number of flu cases and I think we're approaching the stage where those in power need to decide what's an acceptable amount of Covid cases.

Apologies to sound like a broken record but if we get to May, for example, and are still reporting 1000 cases a day but hospital and ICU numbers are well under control then what difference does 1000 cases a day make?

[Granny Danger]

2 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

32 minutes ago, Steven W said:

Can see them rowing back on P1-3 return to school.
Is there any explanation as to why the numbers have platuaued (perhaps even potentially rising again) at such  a high level. These numbers would suggest that this lockdown, although bringing them down from a very high level, has on the whole been a failure. And with that mind where do we go next with this? I get the feeling it could this half arsed lockdown through to May or even June.

Eh lockdown has been a failure. Don't you read the Superbigal posts ? What do you think has caused those sustained falls if not the measures in place ?

I don’t think it’s been a failure either but the figures might have been better if the lockdown was more like the earlier one.  How much better we will never know.

[Guest]

37 minutes ago, Gaz said:

Gon someone explain to me why the government are lauding themselves for meeting a target of 'offering' a jag to folk.

Surely there's more to this than just asking someone "do you want a jag?" and therefore that counting as an offer, regardless of response or actual date of jag?

I know, this bunch in Westminster are shocking !!

In fairness though, they're all doing the same as they know the media will twist it for a failure if they don't.

Edited February 14, 2021 by WATTOO

[stumigoo]

I've said it before but case numbers need to become less and less of a benchmark the further we get into the vaccination program.

Cases in Scotland seem to have plateaued between 800-1000 despite the restrictions and maybe its just a case of that being the "natural" level. We accept a certain number of flu cases and I think we're approaching the stage where those in power need to decide what's an acceptable amount of Covid cases.

Apologies to sound like a broken record but if we get to May, for example, and are still reporting 1000 cases a day but hospital and ICU numbers are well under control then what difference does 1000 cases a day make?

This is absolutely where I want us to be. We are not getting rid of it, we will have to live with it.

As long as we have suitable treatments (including booster injections for the most vulnerable)and we have control over hospital and ICU numbers then for me we are in a good place and can move forward with returning things back to normal.

[Billy Jean King]

This is absolutely where I want us to be. We are not getting rid of it, we will have to live with it.

As long as we have suitable treatments (including booster injections for the most vulnerable)and we have control over hospital and ICU numbers then for me we are in a good place and can move forward with returning things back to normal.

This is absolutely the goal but hospital figs are nowhere near the levels required for this to become the primary measure so until they reduce to those levels we are stuck with case numbers.

[101]

43 minutes ago, Gaz said:

Gon someone explain to me why the government are lauding themselves for meeting a target of 'offering' a jag to folk.

Surely there's more to this than just asking someone "do you want a jag?" and therefore that counting as an offer, regardless of response or actual date of jag?

Because they are bunch of charlatans who think mastering the art of putting letters in the post will impress the electorate. It was pleasing to see Baroness Davidson suck it up.

[Steven W]

12 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

41 minutes ago, Steven W said:

Can see them rowing back on P1-3 return to school.
Is there any explanation as to why the numbers have platuaued (perhaps even potentially rising again) at such  a high level. These numbers would suggest that this lockdown, although bringing them down from a very high level, has on the whole been a failure. And with that mind where do we go next with this? I get the feeling it could this half arsed lockdown through to May or even June.

Eh lockdown has been a failure. Don't you read the Superbigal posts ? What do you think has caused those sustained falls if not the measures in place ?

f**k me. Can't you read? "although bringing them down from a very high level".

There's no getting away from it - nationally the numbers have platuaued at a high level (in fact yesterdays is significantly higher than last Saturday). I'm pretty confident that isn't the aim of the lockdown.

Locally some areas have done exceptional, but it would seem that SG are going to be basing decisions nationally

[Wee Bully]

I've said it before but case numbers need to become less and less of a benchmark the further we get into the vaccination program.

Cases in Scotland seem to have plateaued between 800-1000 despite the restrictions and maybe its just a case of that being the "natural" level. We accept a certain number of flu cases and I think we're approaching the stage where those in power need to decide what's an acceptable amount of Covid cases.

Apologies to sound like a broken record but if we get to May, for example, and are still reporting 1000 cases a day but hospital and ICU numbers are well under control then what difference does 1000 cases a day make?

Absolutely right. Case numbers really don’t matter if hospitalisations and ICU numbers are under control.

The only justification I can see for focusing on them is that traditionally, rising case numbers lead to rising hospitalisations 2 or 3 weeks later. However, if vaccinations do their job, this shouldn’t happen in the same way. We just need to demonstrate that.

It’s the reason I am so much less pessimistic that some others on this thread. I’m hopeful that we will start to see relaxations in the coming month, and a wider opening up ( inc hospitality) by the start of May.