Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[renton]

This weeks headline NRS figures added in Log and Linear scales:

 

If the general trend continues, you'd be looking at a total death rate of ~20/week by week 25.

[Todd_is_God]

4 minutes ago, renton said:

This weeks headline NRS figures added in Log and Linear scales:

 

If the general trend continues, you'd be looking at a total death rate of ~20/week by week 25.

Can't go to phase 2 tho...

[renton]

10 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Very interesting figures here.

Most health boards now within min and max recorded weekly deaths over the last 5 years.

For those still above, they are just above.

131 deaths in Scotland last week where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. A reduction of 43% on the previous week.

Total care home deaths now more than those in hospitals.

 

I think it'll be interesting to see if the excess death trends go negative in the months ahead. Would be a measure of how much the Covid thing has simply front loaded mortality that was already factored in for the year, and how much was genuine excess above and beyond actuarial models.

[renton]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

Can't go to phase 2 tho...

Well, we'll be in week 25 when the next review phase comes up.... really depends on the trend continuing and not seeing a noticeable shallowing or reversal from phase 1.

[renton]

11 deaths under the daily (confirmed only) figures and 33 new cases. Still hopeful of getting single figures towards the end of the week.

Edited June 3, 2020 by renton

[Todd_is_God]

9 minutes ago, renton said:

I think it'll be interesting to see if the excess death trends go negative in the months ahead. Would be a measure of how much the Covid thing has simply front loaded mortality that was already factored in for the year, and how much was genuine excess above and beyond actuarial models.

Given that the NHS was never really close to being overwhelmed in Scotland, it would be interesting if we knew how many deaths would have been avoided had people not systematically been moved from hospital to care homes to free up beds which, ultimately, were never needed.

The whole response has been a clusterfuck which will leave repercussions for years to come.

The idea that we will have restrictions in place of the likes listed in Phases 1 & 2, even if the total Covid-19 related deaths are around 20 per week or less (i.e.1.9% of expected weekly deaths) is absolutely ridiculous, and should be gotten into the sea at the earliest possible opportunity.

That of course implies that hospital admissions are also decreasing.

Edited June 3, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[topcat(The most tip top)]

The increased mortality rate in BAME individuals from COVID19 is a worldwide trend - I don't doubt that twitter and the British Press (barely a fag paper between them) will fall over themselves to throw out speculative, sociological puff as a result to explain it. 
Others have arrived at the evidence-based and biological conclusion that there is a clear link between COVID mortality and Vitamin D deficiency, which is likely to affect darker-skinned individuals more as they absorb less Vit D through sunlight. 
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1548/rr-6

Which would mean we’re lucky this didn’t hit Scotland in the winter. Even albino Aberdonians would be in trouble

[renton]

6 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Given that the NHS was never really close to being overwhelmed in Scotland, it would be interesting if we knew how many deaths would have been avoided had people not systematically been moved from hospital to care homes to free up beds which, ultimately, were never needed.

The whole response has been a clusterfuck which will leave repercussions for years to come.

Ultimately I guess it'd be impossible to definitely trace the vectors into the care homes, obviously some will have caught it in hospitals then been discharged, some will have come through visitors and staff. 

[NotThePars]

the non-fash bits of youtube are a wonderful resource.

That 5% is good, yes

[Thereisalight..]

25 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Can't go to phase 2 tho...

And looking like no top flight football in front of crowds until 2021, when the virus magically resets itself 

[John MacLean]

The continuing downward trends are encouraging and reflective of 8/9 weeks of 'lockdown'.  

What I think will be significant is if in several weeks from now, when the impact of moving into Phase One can be properly assessed, the trends are still moving downwards. That will be especially significant if non-compliance with the current regulations continues along the lines we saw at the weekend. A lot of ifs there though. 

I'm feeling cautiously optimistic that if not at the next review period then the following one (which if I can add up correctly would be July 9th) we may be allowed to have a piss in other households if not yet able to go out and get a haircut. 

Edited June 3, 2020 by John MacLean

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, John MacLean said:

The continuing downward trends are encouraging and reflective of 8/9 weeks of 'lockdown'.  

What I think will be significant is if in several weeks from now, when the impact of moving into Phase One can be properly assessed, the trends are still moving downwards. That will be especially significant if non-compliance with the current regulations continues along the lines we saw at the weekend. A lot of ifs there though. 

I'm feeling cautiously optimistic that if not at the next review period then the following one (which if I can add up correctly would be July 9th) we may be allowed to have a piss in other households if not go out and get a haircut. 

Hair salons are phase 3

Be lucky to get a haircut by August

Edited June 3, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[John MacLean]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

Hair salons are phase 3

Be lucky to get a haircut by August

That was I meant. Phrased badly on my behalf. 

[welshbairn]

Was just thinking that if Patel was serious about using quarantine to cut down virus spread she should be saying any Brit who wants to travel abroad should have to go into 2 weeks quarantine with testing before they get on the plane. We're plague central as far as Europe goes, she's got it in reverse.

[vikingTON]

32 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

 

Which would mean we’re lucky this didn’t hit Scotland in the winter. Even albino Aberdonians would be in trouble

NHS Scotland and the government should have already been doing a public health campaign for Vitamin D supplements or fortifying foodstuffs with it for years. For a country so close to the Arctic Circle with a shite diet that excludes most oily fish (that keeps Norwegians etc. healthy) it really is a no-brainer: this deficiency is likely contributing to thousands of excess deaths every single year.

[Steven W]

24 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Was just thinking that if Patel was serious about using quarantine to cut down virus spread she should be saying any Brit who wants to travel abroad should have to go into 2 weeks quarantine with testing before they get on the plane. We're plague central as far as Europe goes, she's got it in reverse.

This whole quarantine thing is Patel's political equivalent of a vibrator. She'll be absolutely loving this mini delve into the xenophobic utopia of (pretty much) closed British borders.

As you say, we're the sick man of Europe and if anything you'd think other countries would want us to quarantine prior to arriving there. I note Portugal and Italy (and in July Spain) will be opening up there tourism industry.

[Distant Doonhamer]

Was just thinking that if Patel was serious about using quarantine to cut down virus spread she should be saying any Brit who wants to travel abroad should have to go into 2 weeks quarantine with testing before they get on the plane. We're plague central as far as Europe goes, she's got it in reverse.

It’s madness. A policy that not only has no gain but will be hugely costly in terms of trying to get the economy going. Let’s quarantine folk coming in/home from abroad but let’s not mandate mask wearing on public transport. Idiots.

[Forest_Fifer]

I think it'll be interesting to see if the excess death trends go negative in the months ahead. Would be a measure of how much the Covid thing has simply front loaded mortality that was already factored in for the year, and how much was genuine excess above and beyond actuarial models.

The PHE mortality numbers are almost back to normal


I would not be surprised to see the line continue to fall.

[Wee Willie]

 

43 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Hair salons are phase 3

Be lucky to get a haircut by August

Yesterday my lassie borrowed a hair clipper set and trimmed my head and beard (all number 2).

At least now I look respectable apart from the plooks on my neck

[peasy23]

Excluding mailed-out tests which may or may not come back with a suitable sample, the UK has hit the 100k testing target, set for the end of April, once. There is no data available on how many home-test kits have produced results.

To make it worse, and this is something I genuinely didn’t know, the testing figure announced daily also includes antibody tests which obviously don’t tell you who currently has the virus. So in reality, there have never been 100,000 people tested in the UK for Covid-19 in a day. It’s unlikely to have ever been remotely close. And even including posting out hundreds of thousands of kits, and disingenuously including antibody tests in the figures, we’ve not really come close to Boris Johnson’s 200k figure by the end of May either.

Yesterday, there were 135k tests ‘announced’ at the briefing. 36k of these were antibody tests, usually for use by the ONS for research, so we can effectively discount those. 20,669 people were actually tested in hospitals or coronavirus test centres in England. The claim is there were 69k ‘wider population’ tests carried out, with no numbers as to how many people this involved, or what these tests actually are.

The reality is very, very different to the 135k tests announced as a headline, isn’t it? I know there’s been rebuke from the UK Statistics Authority and I probably shouldn’t be surprised. But I am gobsmacked they can get away with this.

You just know that they will be counting the Premier League players and staff who are getting tested regularly among the figures now. They will be using anything they can to inflate the numbers