Motherwell Crocked 11 v League Cup Finalist Perth Saints 20 Feb

[18May1991]

11 hours ago, MJC said:

So would I, any win will do especially after last weeks shambles. If we can scrape enough ‘shitfest wins’ between now and May to keep us in the league then that’ll do for me. After that we can hopefully start moving forward and GA can start rebuilding the squad.

Starting with a huge fucking clear out of the dross. 

[Gianfranco]

We were talking about our lack of goals on our group chat last night. Our current starting midfield 3 have a grand total of zero assists between them regardless of whether you include O’Hara or Crawford. Watt has been our player of the season by a mile but 500 minutes a goal is awful.

Stevie May and Spoony’s stats for Saints makes them look like footballing gods compared to our sorry lot.

[RandomGuy.]

37 minutes ago, Gianfranco said:

We were talking about our lack of goals on our group chat last night. Our current starting midfield 3 have a grand total of zero assists between them regardless of whether you include O’Hara or Crawford. Watt has been our player of the season by a mile but 500 minutes a goal is awful.

Stevie May and Spoony’s stats for Saints makes them look like footballing gods compared to our sorry lot.

Worth mentioning Polworth/Maguire should have 2/3 assists each, its just poor finishing thats let them down.

[welldaft]

Why I think we need to see Polworth back starting today. 

Given one of our midfielders is likely to feature in defence I suspect that will happen anyways. 

Bit those stats are horrific. 

Watt gets an easy ride because he works his butt off but as a striker his goal scoring record is also very poor. 

Easy to see why we are at the wrong end of the table.

 

[capt_oats]

2 hours ago, Gianfranco said:

We were talking about our lack of goals on our group chat last night. Our current starting midfield 3 have a grand total of zero assists between them regardless of whether you include O’Hara or Crawford. Watt has been our player of the season by a mile but 500 minutes a goal is awful.

Stevie May and Spoony’s stats for Saints makes them look like footballing gods compared to our sorry lot.

There's absolutely zero doubt that our goal return has been poor but I'd be interested to know just how much of that has been down to Robinson. Even when we were doing well he's wasn't someone who ever really got the best out his forwards and it's clearly been a recurring theme of discussion on our thread.

If you take Alexander's games on their own we've failed to score in only 1 of them and we were down to 10 men for the majority of the second half in that game (we also hit the post and should have had a penalty). Under Robinson this season we failed to score in 9 of 19 of our league games - so almost half.

It's the same players but we've scored in 7 of 8 games under one manager vs 10 of 19 under the other.

1 hour ago, RandomGuy. said:

Worth mentioning Polworth/Maguire should have 2/3 assists each, its just poor finishing thats let them down.

I know there are a lot of xG sceptics and straight up h8rs (I have no strong feelings either way) but I noticed this through the week and present it without comment other than to say Devante Cole 4th behind Edouard, Morelos and Roofe.

 

Edited February 20, 2021 by capt_oats

[MJC]

3 hours ago, 18May1991 said:

Starting with a huge fucking clear out of the dross. 

Indeed, a complete clear out is required, getting rid of the majority of these wage stealing arseholes has got to be a priority.

[RandomGuy.]

44 minutes ago, capt_oats said:

I know there are a lot of xG sceptics and straight up h8rs (I have no strong feelings either way) but I noticed this through the week and present it without comment other than to say Devante Cole 4th behind Edouard, Morelos and Roofe.

 

Going off memory all 3 of your strikers have underperformed their xG this season.

Obviously meaning they've missed a few chances that most people would look at and expect them to have scored from.

Also from memory, and entering w****r territory, if you combine each players xG+xA, to see who's both getting into dangerous areas and creating dangerous chances, I believe Cole is your 2nd highest player behind Watt (who has underperformed his xG every season of his life).

Of your current squad, you've relied on Watt/Cole/Polworth combined to be involved in just over 50% of your, non-pen, scoring chances so far.

[capt_oats]

3 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

Going off memory all 3 of your strikers have underperformed their xG this season.

Obviously meaning they've missed a few chances that most people would look at and expect them to have scored from.

Also from memory, and entering w****r territory, if you combine each players xG+xA, to see who's both getting into dangerous areas and creating dangerous chances, I believe Cole is your 2nd highest player behind Watt (who has underperformed his xG every season of his life).

Of your current squad, you've relied on Watt/Cole/Polworth combined to be involved in just over 50% of your, non-pen, scoring chances so far.

This is kind of what I'm driving at with the point about Robinson having been a problem. Off the top of my head since Alexander has come in and tweaked the forward line we've already seen Watt providing 3 assists for Cole and Campbell by realising that he's not a #9 and Cole's scored 4 in 8 by being played through the middle compared with whatever it was in the time Robinson was in charge and starting him out wide.

Totally take on board Watt historically underperforming in terms of goals - the question I'd be asking is whether our forwards have been underperforming this season because they've been played out of position for the majority of it.

[Costanza]

Strange odds again for this game a la Dundee United away game last month.

[Steve McQueen]

10 minutes ago, Costanza said:

Strange odds again for this game a la Dundee United away game last month.

Is this not because of Motherwell supposed injuries.

Edited February 20, 2021 by Steve McQueen

[capt_oats]

27 minutes ago, Steve McQueen said:

Is this not because of Motherwell supposed injuries.

And the fact we got absolutely bodied by Accies last week.

Edited February 20, 2021 by capt_oats

[RandomGuy.]

38 minutes ago, capt_oats said:

the question I'd be asking is whether our forwards have been underperforming this season because they've been played out of position for the majority of it.

Probably, ultimately if it looks like that's been the issue then it likely will be.

On one hand, strikers sometimes go through runs of missing chances, tbh. It happens to everyone at some point (apart from Steven MacLean, the freak). Maybe it's just bad luck you had Long/Cole/Watt all struggling to score at the same time. The first two have shown they can be clinical.

Edouard was, and still is, technically underperforming, but he gets such a massive amount of good chances it's almost impossible for him not to score, guess you could argue Robinson playing Cole put of position meant he wasn't getting enough chances to turn it around? I can't remember if he was in that top 5 you posted until the last month, I've got a note of the list somewhere but its buried under a mass of shit I have catalogued now.

[capt_oats]

8 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

Probably, ultimately if it looks like that's been the issue then it likely will be.

On one hand, strikers sometimes go through runs of missing chances, tbh. It happens to everyone at some point (apart from Steven MacLean, the freak). Maybe it's just bad luck you had Long/Cole/Watt all struggling to score at the same time. The first two have shown they can be clinical.

Edouard was, and still is, technically underperforming, but he gets such a massive amount of good chances it's almost impossible for him not to score, guess you could argue Robinson playing Cole put of position meant he wasn't getting enough chances to turn it around? I can't remember if he was in that top 5 you posted until the last month, I've got a note of the list somewhere but its buried under a mass of shit I have catalogued now.

Aye Long straight out said that he felt he'd been played out of position in that interview the club put out through the week. On top of that he's saying that when he was playing he was (in his own words) "crap" but there are plenty of not even subtle digs at Robinson.

I mean I'd be surprised if Devante Cole was that high in any xG chart over the season which is why it caught my eye. Over the last month or so? Less of a shock.

Edited February 20, 2021 by capt_oats

[Richie]

Strange odds again for this game a la Dundee United away game last month.

Aye, Motherwell 3/1on William Hill
Generous for a Premiership game that doesn't involve the OF

[PauloPerth]

49 minutes ago, Costanza said:

Strange odds again for this game a la Dundee United away game last month.

This has been a theme for much of this season. It's like the bookies are going off a table and form guide from when we were top 4!  We've rarely been good odds.

[RandomGuy.]

2 minutes ago, PauloPerth said:

This has been a theme for much of this season. It's like the bookies are going off a table and form guide from when we were top 4!  We've rarely been good odds.

*coughs in xG*

A lot of bookmakers have their own xG model, which they use to predict results/goals scored etc., so some betting accounts on Twitter have started trying to replicate it to find flaws. We come out well in these tables.

['WellDel]

Motherwell at a flat 3/1 across all bookies is obviously a reflection of how absolutely honking we were against Accies and the season overall , but still, to be priced at that at home to the team directly above you seems generous, especially given all the variables and unknowns in team selection on both sides today with 'Well's injuries and Saints cup final on the horizon. 

As I said earlier in the thread, got the fear for this one but hoping for some sort of Alexander masterclass in shit housing our way to a win, as this really could be a season defining afternoon. 

Can't see us keeping a clean sheet with what we have available at the back, so I've combined the 3/1 for a Motherwell win with BTTS and Tony Watt anytime scorer - 18/1 your money. A man's gotta hope. 

[Jamie_B]

This is at least the third or fourth away game where the odds have been absolutely wild. They were ridiculous away to Dundee United and I think much the same at Killie. Even at Livingston we weren’t what you would have thought.

[Shipa]

Seems a tough one to call team-wise. Given our league position, it's a game we could really do with winning to pull away from the bottom teams, so taken in isolation we would want to play our strongest 11. With half an eye on next week though, I wonder if we will maybe rest a few nailed on starters and give others a chance to earn their place in the final. That would mean fielding a slightly weaker team, but in those circumstances I would hope they all give 110%. Certainly don't envy Callum the job of making those decisions.

[PauloPerth]

34 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

*coughs in xG*

A lot of bookmakers have their own xG model, which they use to predict results/goals scored etc., so some betting accounts on Twitter have started trying to replicate it to find flaws. We come out well in these tables.

Yes it must be that. There’s no way it’s based on form or league position as bookies traditionally went on.  Motherwell are two points behind us with a game in hand and are slightly better off in the last 5 match form, and are at home.

As an aside, we haven’t beaten many different teams this season; half of our points have come against two clubs: st mirren and Kilmarnock.