Next to go?

[FairWeatherFan]

14 minutes ago, ScottishLoon said:

I know I've said earlier that relegating teams outside of the relegation places would be unfair, however on the other side surely it's better to have the higher tiers (lowland/Highland) with a even number of teams by promoting the highest place sfa liscensed team in the league below where possible to avoid it.

The system in place, and would be replicated by HL/LL champions promoted with 2 down. Would still see the Lowland League at 16 (Ignoring B teams).

The Highland maxes out at 20. Currently 18. Will probably settle on a fixed even number once more teams in Tier 6 become licenced.

 

[BFTD]

16 minutes ago, Marten said:

In England it already results in odd situations like Bishops Stortford in the Conference North. In Scotland it would likely be far worse. As said, Cowdenbeath could have been moved to the Highland League. Over time it could result that the HL contains clubs from as far south as Edinburgh, it already happened that Edinburgh clubs were in the northern section in the League Cup groups (when it was still split north/south) or in the Challenge Cup.

Scotland's population spread is far too lopsided for a structure like that. England already have this problem despite having some major population centres in the north/midlands, like Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle and so on.

Not really relevant, and I don't know what the National League's policy on swapping between the regional leagues is now, but I remember the chairman of my hometown team in the Midlands whining in the press about not being allowed into the Conference South because they "had more in common culturally with southern clubs". I'm guessing the southern grounds had nicer prawn sandwiches than the desolate Lancastrian wastelands, but he was also known to be a massive w**k, so there's that too.

I only mention it because it amused me to imagine, say, Arbroath getting relegated and throwing a wobbler about having to play a bunch of sheep-shagging teuchters  

[Donathan]

32 minutes ago, Marten said:

In England it already results in odd situations like Bishops Stortford in the Conference North. In Scotland it would likely be far worse. As said, Cowdenbeath could have been moved to the Highland League. Over time it could result that the HL contains clubs from as far south as Edinburgh, it already happened that Edinburgh clubs were in the northern section in the League Cup groups (when it was still split north/south) or in the Challenge Cup.

Scotland's population spread is far too lopsided for a structure like that. England already have this problem despite having some major population centres in the north/midlands, like Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle and so on.

 

 

I think a 3 region split (North, East, West) would address the issue you raise. I'd expand the top two leagues, but abolish leagues one and two and then have three regional leagues that all have one automatic promotion spot.

[ScottishLoon]

4 minutes ago, FairWeatherFan said:

The system in place, and would be replicated by HL/LL champions promoted with 2 down. Would still see the Lowland League at 16 (Ignoring B teams).

The Highland maxes out at 20. Currently 18. Will probably settle on a fixed even number once more teams in Tier 6 become licenced.

 

That's true but with B teams in the lowland league right now it's at 19 so for this season with Spartans going up, I would of liked to see a auchinleck Vs newton Stewart(I think) play off based on being highest position sfa licence holders in west and south and vice versa if Brechin were promoted a lochee United Vs fort William play off.

Should clarify this is only theoretical for this season until the pyramid changes with reconstruction or more sfa licences are given.

[PossilYM]

2 hours ago, BTFD said:

Not really relevant, and I don't know what the National League's policy on swapping between the regional leagues is now, but I remember the chairman of my hometown team in the Midlands whining in the press about not being allowed into the Conference South because they "had more in common culturally with southern clubs". I'm guessing the southern grounds had nicer prawn sandwiches than the desolate Lancastrian wastelands, but he was also known to be a massive w**k, so there's that too.

I only mention it because it amused me to imagine, say, Arbroath getting relegated and throwing a wobbler about having to play a bunch of sheep-shagging teuchters  

As against Banjo players in Ayrshire?

[PossilYM]

On 25/05/2021 at 18:55, EdinburghBlue said:

Number of times teams have finished bottom since we adopted a four league structure in Scotland:

 

East Stirlingshire - 8 (relegated)

Albion Rovers - 4 (relegated)

Montrose - 3

Brechin City - 2 (relegated)

Cowdenbeath - 2 (relegated)

Elgin City - 2

Queen’s Park - 2

Arbroath - 1

Berwick Rangers - 1 (relegated)

Clyde - 1

Dumbarton - 1

Forfar - 1

So almost any of our current part-time teams could finish bottom sometime over the next 10-15 years and could go, either if they were unlucky in a play-off, or automatically if automatic promotion/relegation is introduced.

 

So which team do you think is next to go, and why?

 

[ETA 22 March 2023

Highest/lowest points totals for teams finishing bottom 35 (Queen's Park 2001-02 and Cowdenbeath 2016-17) Albion Rovers 39 (2022-23) and 8 (East Stirlingshire 2003-4). Average just under 26.

Highest/lowest margins 22 (Albion Rovers 1994-95) and 0 (Albion Rovers 1995-96). Average margin between 9th and 10th just over 8 points.

Covid-affected seasons excluded though they would not change the highest/lowest teams/seasons if the analysis was done on a PPG basis.]

 

Elgin City looking good from that list.

[Hampden Diehard]

On 04/06/2023 at 19:01, Donathan said:

 

 

I think a 3 region split (North, East, West) would address the issue you raise. I'd expand the top two leagues, but abolish leagues one and two and then have three regional leagues that all have one automatic promotion spot.

You'd dilute what quality there is in Leagues 1 and 2 to make more geographical sense for the pyramid.  That's not a step forward.

I'm afraid people simply have to accept that there is a wee issue with population spread in Scotland if they want a pyramid.

[HibeeJibee]

Current league positions (start of November):


                                                              


          


Interesting to find Bonnyrigg + Spartans top half in SPFL2... Cove + Edinburgh City + Kelty are SPFL1... while Albion Rovers + Berwick + 'Shire all bottom 6 in LL, and Cowdenbeath bottom half.

[strichener]

On 04/06/2023 at 17:43, BFTD said:

Not really relevant, and I don't know what the National League's policy on swapping between the regional leagues is now, but I remember the chairman of my hometown team in the Midlands whining in the press about not being allowed into the Conference South because they "had more in common culturally with southern clubs". I'm guessing the southern grounds had nicer prawn sandwiches than the desolate Lancastrian wastelands, but he was also known to be a massive w**k, so there's that too.

I only mention it because it amused me to imagine, say, Arbroath getting relegated and throwing a wobbler about having to play a bunch of sheep-shagging teuchters  

Replace Arbroath with Brechin and it's already happened.

[rockson]

23 hours ago, HibeeJibee said:

Current league positions (start of November):


                                                              


          


Interesting to find Bonnyrigg + Spartans top half in SPFL2... Cove + Edinburgh City + Kelty are SPFL1... while Albion Rovers + Berwick + 'Shire all bottom 6 in LL, and Cowdenbeath bottom half.

Entirely predictable that, given the trajectories these clubs were on and the relative monies involved.

Brechin not conforming to that stereotype though.

Any long term SPFL side is going to struggle with the change of status if relegated to the Lowland League. Their attractivemess to potential players is bound to be much less there.

I note it took Edin City and Annan long enough to get promoted one division in the SPFL.

[Jacksgranda]

I don't know who'll be next to go, but I think we can safely say it will be goodbye to them ever becoming a league club again, going by the positions of the current ex league clubs.

Brechin have done well in the Highland League, but I can't see them getting the better of the LL champions no matter who they are (assuming City win the HL this season).

However, never say never, but I can only see the LL getting stronger and the composition of League 2 completely different in 6 years time.

Any side getting relegated has to to be resigned to not coming back, imo.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

4 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

I don't know who'll be next to go, but I think we can safely say it will be goodbye to them ever becoming a league club again, going by the positions of the current ex league clubs.

Brechin have done well in the Highland League, but I can't see them getting the better of the LL champions no matter who they are (assuming City win the HL this season).

However, never say never, but I can only see the LL getting stronger and the composition of League 2 completely different in 6 years time.

Any side getting relegated has to to be resigned to not coming back, imo.

I think you are probably correct there, and although there may be future outlier clubs managing a re-entry, most clubs exiting the senior league structure will find things extremely difficult.  The really worrying thing is that it can take only one poor season for your club to drop down the chute, and that's entirely possible.

[PossilYM]

Worth remembering that so far nothing has came out the Wosfl. Eventually even by default that will happen and even if it is by default again via the LL they will end up in Teir 4 of the pyramid.

Going forward I'd expect certain league clubs to crash down into the Wosfl.

It would only take two or three bad seasons.

Edited December 5, 2023 by PossilYM

[Silverton End]

6 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

I don't know who'll be next to go, but I think we can safely say it will be goodbye to them ever becoming a league club again, going by the positions of the current ex league clubs.

Brechin have done well in the Highland League, but I can't see them getting the better of the LL champions no matter who they are (assuming City win the HL this season).

However, never say never, but I can only see the LL getting stronger and the composition of League 2 completely different in 6 years time.

Any side getting relegated has to to be resigned to not coming back, imo.

Out of the clubs who've dropped into the LL, I thought Albion Rovers would be doing better than they are.

I agree though, it's a graveyard for SPFL clubs.

 

[Highlandmagar]

If Clyde go, I think it would the eventual demise of them.

[Bring Back Paddy Flannery]

22 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

I don't know who'll be next to go, but I think we can safely say it will be goodbye to them ever becoming a league club again, going by the positions of the current ex league clubs.

Brechin have done well in the Highland League, but I can't see them getting the better of the LL champions no matter who they are (assuming City win the HL this season).

However, never say never, but I can only see the LL getting stronger and the composition of League 2 completely different in 6 years time.

Any side getting relegated has to to be resigned to not coming back, imo.

If daft wee clubs like East Kilbride come up they wont last long once the chicken man/inverstors get bored. Also the clubs who have went down don’t really have a large core support, Brechin are the best of the bunch and they aren’t exactly a million miles from coming back up. 

I certainly don’t think if someone like Clyde got relegated they’d be stuck there for eternity. They have decent sized core support and the Lowland League is absolutely ganting bar 2 or 3 teams (one of whom is spending way, way outwith their means and will die off eventually).

[CrispyMelon]

4 minutes ago, Bring Back Paddy Flannery said:

If daft wee clubs like East Kilbride come up they wont last long once the chicken man/inverstors get bored. Also the clubs who have went down don’t really have a large core support, Brechin are the best of the bunch and they aren’t exactly a million miles from coming back up. 

I certainly don’t think if someone like Clyde got relegated they’d be stuck there for eternity. They have decent sized core support and the Lowland League is absolutely ganting bar 2 or 3 teams (one of whom is spending way, way outwith their means and will die off eventually).

My concern for Clyde is the fact they don’t have a home. You need a community to appeal to, especially if you’re in the doldrums. Surely Clyde are behind the old firm and Hamilton for anyone in the town looking to get into football. 
 

I fear Clyde could go the way of Shire if they drop into the lowland league. While Albion, Berwick (barring the second half of last season) and Cowdenbeath haven’t set the league alight since relegation, they at least have a town to appeal to that, in theory at least, could get behind them. 

[oneteaminglasgow]

12 minutes ago, CrispyMelon said:

My concern for Clyde is the fact they don’t have a home. You need a community to appeal to, especially if you’re in the doldrums. Surely Clyde are behind the old firm and Hamilton for anyone in the town looking to get into football. 
 

I fear Clyde could go the way of Shire if they drop into the lowland league. While Albion, Berwick (barring the second half of last season) and Cowdenbeath haven’t set the league alight since relegation, they at least have a town to appeal to that, in theory at least, could get behind them. 

They’re in the process of getting that sorted via Crownpoint, are they not?

I know it’s by no means a done deal, but if that comes through then I can’t imagine Clyde being locked out the SPFL forever. I know the whole ‘big club’ thing is overplayed, but how many clubs currently outside the SPFL are organically bigger than the clubs within it? Maybe a handful? Once the guys flinging money at certain clubs get bored, you’re probably not looking at that many clubs who could displace current SPFL clubs in the long term. 

Generally, I think, in time, we’ll see teams who come up for a season and go back down and vice versa, and some other teams who’ve previously come up and made a bit of a splash head back down the way as the money dries up.

[Bring Back Paddy Flannery]

49 minutes ago, CrispyMelon said:

My concern for Clyde is the fact they don’t have a home. You need a community to appeal to, especially if you’re in the doldrums. Surely Clyde are behind the old firm and Hamilton for anyone in the town looking to get into football. 
 

I fear Clyde could go the way of Shire if they drop into the lowland league. While Albion, Berwick (barring the second half of last season) and Cowdenbeath haven’t set the league alight since relegation, they at least have a town to appeal to that, in theory at least, could get behind them. 

How many clubs who are in a solidly based in a community actually manage to attract members of said community outwith their core support? I suspect the number is miniscule. Regardless of what clubs try, people support who they support and no matter what clubs do that will rarely change. 

In recent years we’ve managed to attract a fairly sizeable group of wee guys who come down for a sing song with their pals but every season the older ones seem to disappear never to return - mostly because they are brought up as Rangers and Celtic fans and that eventually takes over once they’ve outgrown the wee day out with their pals. The only hope is we manage to retain a handful of them every season and they stick around. You could probably count on one hand the amount of adult supporters we’ve managed to lure in to support us over their currently supported clubs. 

Clubs will generally see a wee boost when they are performing well/in a title race but that’s about as far as it goes.

[GNU_Linux]

1 hour ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

They’re in the process of getting that sorted via Crownpoint, are they not?

I know it’s by no means a done deal, but if that comes through then I can’t imagine Clyde being locked out the SPFL forever. I know the whole ‘big club’ thing is overplayed, but how many clubs currently outside the SPFL are organically bigger than the clubs within it? Maybe a handful? Once the guys flinging money at certain clubs get bored, you’re probably not looking at that many clubs who could displace current SPFL clubs in the long term. 

Generally, I think, in time, we’ll see teams who come up for a season and go back down and vice versa, and some other teams who’ve previously come up and made a bit of a splash head back down the way as the money dries up.

Finnart of the WOSL have also submitted a bid for Crownpoint alongside youth side Glasgow Athletic. As per the Clyde thread the club are looking at the Glen Conner pitches in Royston if Crownpoint falls through.