Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Hillonearth]

16 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

Aye but they're not stupid, they'll learn. Those troops being moved from near Kiev to the Donbas are the ones that learned quickly enough to survive and are more dangerous as a result.

You're right on a purely individual basis - those that have made it through will be on a new level of DGAFness than they were before. That being said however the real weaknesses have been organisational; equipment, logistics, command and control, doctrine and so on. Elements of their surviving soldiery having being brutalised beyond belief by previous experiences won't fix any of the systemic issues that currently make them a not-very-good army.

Edited April 6, 2022 by Hillonearth

[VincentGuerin]

30 minutes ago, Hillonearth said:

The one takeaway so far is the weakness-exposing performance of the Russian military - their main achievement thus far is to have shown their arse and illuminated how much of a take-on they actually are...good for terrorising civilian populations but spectacularly inept when it comes to anything remotely resembling an actual square go.

Regardless of how cosy they are at the moment, resource hungry arch-pragmatists like the Chinese must surely be thinking "Hmmm..."

 

 

Aye. There had long been speculation that the Russians were in a great position militarily. This is maybe Vlad's 'better to say nothing and be thought an idiot than open your mouth and prove it' moment.

He's shown his hand and it's not great.

[Sergeant Wilson]

2 minutes ago, VincentGuerin said:

Aye. There had long been speculation that the Russians were in a great position militarily. This is maybe Vlad's 'better to say nothing and be thought an idiot than open your mouth and prove it' moment.

He's shown his hand and it's not great.

As long as he doesn't think "fucking shite army...I know what'll work..."

[Hillonearth]

2 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

As long as he doesn't think "fucking shite army...I know what'll work..."

It's not one where I'd be willing to test the hypothesis, but you do wonder after years of neglect what operational state their nukes are in. Be fucking embarrassing if they ended up dropping one that turned out to be a dud.

[Sergeant Wilson]

3 minutes ago, Hillonearth said:

It's not one where I'd be willing to test the hypothesis, but you do wonder after years of neglect what operational state their nukes are in. Be fucking embarrassing if they ended up dropping one that turned out to be a dud.

 

[Silvio Tattiescone]

17 minutes ago, Hillonearth said:

It's not one where I'd be willing to test the hypothesis, but you do wonder after years of neglect what operational state their nukes are in. Be fucking embarrassing if they ended up dropping one that turned out to be a dud.

Maybe they already did?

[dirty dingus]

20 minutes ago, Hillonearth said:

It's not one where I'd be willing to test the hypothesis, but you do wonder after years of neglect what operational state their nukes are in. Be fucking embarrassing if they ended up dropping one that turned out to be a dud.

They've got over 6000 nukes, even if only 10% are working they can still do some amount of damage.

[Hillonearth]

9 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

They've got over 6000 nukes, even if only 10% are working they can still do some amount of damage.

Therein lies the problem - it only takes one to work to make it not worth it.

That being said, in a pre-nuclear age, given the Russians' military performance so far you could envisage NATO and the Chinese already on the hotline saying

"Fancy it? Meet you at the Yenisei..."

[Silvio Tattiescone]

2 minutes ago, Hillonearth said:

Therein lies the problem - it only takes one to work to make it not worth it.

That being said, in a pre-nuclear age, given the Russians' military performance so far you could envisage NATO and the Chinese already on the hotline saying

"Fancy it? Meet you at the Yenisei..."

I imagine some here would faint at the very idea.

[welshbairn]

Expecting to hear that radiation poisoning is just like a dose of the sniffles any moment.

[BFTD]

18 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Expecting to hear that radiation poisoning is just like a dose of the sniffles any moment.

I've already seen some experts claiming online that the effects of radiation aren't as serious as "experts" originally thought, so nuclear war's not a biggie.

That was years ago, mind. They've probably read up on it since then.

[Granny Danger]

14 minutes ago, BFTD said:

I've already seen some experts claiming online that the effects of radiation aren't as serious as "experts" originally thought, so nuclear war's not a biggie.

That was years ago, mind. They've probably read up on it since then.

What’s their thoughts on VAR?

[coprolite]

Here's a light hearted fun toy you can use to give yourself sleepless nights. 

I don't know what most of the Russian arsenal consists of but that tsar bomb thingy looks like it would make a bit of a mess. 

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

[Boo Khaki]

28 minutes ago, BFTD said:

I've already seen some experts claiming online that the effects of radiation aren't as serious as "experts" originally thought, so nuclear war's not a biggie.

That was years ago, mind. They've probably read up on it since then.

Interesting hearing the woman from the Chernobyl Tissue Bank being interviewed. Upshot is that the feared physiological consequences of the Chernobyl incident have completely failed to materialise. There are not babies being born with two heads and so on. She was saying that the only detectable difference since 1986 is the incidence of thyroidal cancers in children, and since those are easily treatable, it really hasn't had the catastrophic health impact on the local populace that scientists feared.

Obviously there are consequences of a global nuclear exchange that weren't factors at Chernobyl, but perhaps there is some truth in the suggestion that we would not, in fact, be walking around in some Fallout-esque mutant-infested post-apocalyptic wasteland if Russia and NATO decided to have a bash at turning each others cities into sheets of glass.

[Fullerene]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

Expecting to hear that radiation poisoning is just like a dose of the sniffles any moment.

Two days after the bomb was dropped on Hiroshima they had the trams up and running again.  A minor inconvenience.  The whole thing is overstated!

[Salt n Vinegar]

10 minutes ago, Boo Khaki said:

Interesting hearing the woman from the Chernobyl Tissue Bank being interviewed. Upshot is that the feared physiological consequences of the Chernobyl incident have completely failed to materialise. There are not babies being born with two heads and so on. She was saying that the only detectable difference since 1986 is the incidence of thyroidal cancers in children, and since those are easily treatable, it really hasn't had the catastrophic health impact on the local populace that scientists feared.

Obviously there are consequences of a global nuclear exchange that weren't factors at Chernobyl, but perhaps there is some truth in the suggestion that we would not, in fact, be walking around in some Fallout-esque mutant-infested post-apocalyptic wasteland if Russia and NATO decided to have a bash at turning each others cities into sheets of glass.

Slightly off topic, but for clarity, I'd prefer it if no city was turned into a sheet of glass, but if one must be sacrificed, and if there was a poll, I'd vote for Dundee.  If the net was spread more widely than cities, I'd probably be suggesting Dunfermline, but it's a bit close to Edinburgh. 

On a serious note, we have visited the "Secret Bunker" in Fife which should be required viewing for any pro-nuclear weapons nutjobs.  The thing that probably hit me hardest were that apart from the obvious reason for having weapons there - to defend it from locals desperately trying to get in before it was sealed - they were also there to give the staff a humane end if/when the entrance was blocked by debris, trapping them 100 feet underground with no hope of escape. 

The "civil defence" films along the "Protect and Survive" theme were so bad they were almost funny.  Well worth a visit, but if you go, give it plenty of time and try not to have nightmares given that many of the weapons they were 'preparing' for are now decades out if date. 

[Stellaboz]

The ironic thing about the Secret Bunker is that after a certain time, the signs for it just stop. Only found it by sheer luck in the end. 

[Boo Khaki]

Worst thing about the ROC bunker is the smell of wool blankets in the dorm. That was enough to give me flashbacks, never mind any of the nuclear paraphernalia.

[Fullerene]

I mentioned this before on here but Ronald Reagan once went to Norad Command deep inside a mountain in Wyoming.

He jokingly remarked "Well I guess we will be safe in here if the Russians decide to nuke us just now".

The reply came back, "No, Sir.  We will still be dead".

His attitude to nuclear weapons changed a bit after that.

 

[RawB93]

56 minutes ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

On a serious note, we have visited the "Secret Bunker" in Fife which should be required viewing for any pro-nuclear weapons nutjobs.

Went to a rave there about 10 years ago. Was fucking shite. 
Also weird that there are so many signs advertising a “secret” bunker.