Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Newbornbairn]

There's a pattern - whenever Ukraine destroys a high value military target, Russia responds by targeting civilans. 

[sparky88]

Doing something which fires Ukraine to the top of the news headlines for the first time for months seems like a massive error from Russia and Putin.

[Dev]

Just found this via NewsNow. This looks like we are heading for a major escalation via NATO. Couple this with the statement by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (see next post).

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/12/29/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-russias-aerial-assault-on-ukraine/

THE WHITE HOUSE

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Statement from President Joe Biden on Russia’s Aerial Assault on Ukraine

Overnight, Russia launched its largest aerial assault on Ukraine since this war began. This massive bombardment used drones and missiles, including missiles with hypersonic capability, to strike cities and civilian infrastructure all across Ukraine. Strikes reportedly hit a maternity hospital, a shopping mall, and residential areas—killing innocent people and injuring dozens more. It is a stark reminder to the world that, after nearly two years of this devastating war, Putin’s objective remains unchanged. He seeks to obliterate Ukraine and subjugate its people. He must be stopped.
 
In the face of this brutal attack, Ukraine deployed the air defense systems that the United States and our Allies and partners have delivered to Ukraine over the past year to successfully intercept and destroy many of the missiles and drones. The American people can be proud of the lives we have helped to save and the support we have given Ukraine as it defends its people, its freedom, and its independence. But unless Congress takes urgent action in the new year, we will not be able to continue sending the weapons and vital air defense systems Ukraine needs to protect its people. Congress must step up and act without any further delay.
 
The stakes of this fight extend far beyond Ukraine. They affect the entirety of the NATO Alliance, the security of Europe, and the future of the Transatlantic relationship.  Putin has not just attempted to destroy Ukraine; he has threatened some of our NATO Allies as well. When dictators and autocrats are allowed to run roughshod in Europe, the risk rises that the United States gets pulled in directly.  And the consequences reverberate around the world.  That’s why the United States has rallied a coalition of more than 50 countries to support the defense of Ukraine.  We cannot let our allies and partners down.  We cannot let Ukraine down.  History will judge harshly those who fail to answer freedom’s call.

[Dev]

https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/12/comment-un-high-commissioner-human-rights-volker-turk-attacks-ukraine

PRESS RELEASES OFFICE OF THE HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR HUMAN RIGHTS

Comment by UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk on attacks in Ukraine

29 December 2023

Non-official UN languages: Ukrainian Українська (PDF)

“I am shocked by yet another full-scale set of coordinated missile and drone attacks by the Russian Federation across Ukraine during the night of 28 to 29 December.

The massive assault struck densely populated areas in many cities and towns, including Kyiv, Lviv, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Sumy, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia. The attack also affected a wide range of civilian infrastructure, including residential buildings, a maternity hospital, schools, kindergartens, parks, a metro station, and a shopping mall, as well as energy infrastructure. Electricity was cut in several regions, following damage to transmission lines.

At least 23 civilians were killed and 134 were injured. Rescue groups are still searching for people trapped under the rubble of residential buildings.

International humanitarian law explicitly prohibits attacks deliberately targeting civilian objects, as well as indiscriminate attacks, under any circumstances. I call again on the Russian Federation to cease its attacks on Ukraine immediately, and to strictly respect all the rules of international law relating to the conduct of hostilities.”

 

 

[Dev]

5 hours ago, sparky88 said:

Doing something which fires Ukraine to the top of the news headlines for the first time for months seems like a massive error from Russia and Putin.

It may be one provocation too far. 

[Caledonian1]

I have two Ukranian guests staying with me (have done since February)  Tonight Maryna showed me footage on her phone of her former place of work in Dnipro - completely obliterated by Russian bombs.  Thankfully the attack took place at 5am and only one person lost their life.  It is within a busy shopping centre - she likened it in scale to Union Square in Aberdeen and during the day would have been filled with shoppers.

Times like these are a bit of a reminder to me why i am offering them housing.  I get on so well with them that we generally speak about everyday things like the weather, or their work here and I tend to forget that they are from a war zone.

[Sugar_Army]

In Poland just now visiting Mrs SA,s family.

Her sister overheard her nephew (aged 9 and a nice, bright kid) saying derogatory things about Ukrainians living in Poland to his pal.

Stuff like not wanting to fight for their country, lazy, just want a house and money but not willing to work. Apparently he had picked all this up from a classmate.

Fortunately Mrs SA's family are nice and were having none of this.

Rather than shouting at him and in all likliehood failing to deliver the intended message, they sat him down and explained how talk like that could lead to much worse.   They even used some of Mrs SA's experiences when she first came to the UK 15yrs ago to give him some personal context as to how words can hurt.

Then his father sat with him and watched a documentary about Auschwitz that is aimed to educate children. It ended with both father and son hugging each other with tear-filled eyes.

On one hand it might seem a bit like overkill to make him watch a documentary, but it certainly appears to have got the message home.

School were also informed, but they did not name the child who allegedly said it so as not to have him singled out, but school are going going to be tackling the issue of hate speak when school resumes.

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by Sugar_Army

[ICTChris]

22 hours ago, Newbornbairn said:

There's a pattern - whenever Ukraine destroys a high value military target, Russia responds by targeting civilans. 

There has been retaliatory strikes by Russia like this, but the barrage yesterday doesn’t seem to be a direct response to the sinking of the Novocherkassk. Russia has stockpiled the missiles used in this attack for several months, suggesting this was a planned assault on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure rather than an immediate response.

[vikingTON]

46 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

There has been retaliatory strikes by Russia like this, but the barrage yesterday doesn’t seem to be a direct response to the sinking of the Novocherkassk. Russia has stockpiled the missiles used in this attack for several months, suggesting this was a planned assault on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure rather than an immediate response.

Why let evidence and reason get in the way of 2023's parade  of unhinged hype casting? There'll be a Great Summer Offensive of 2024 replacing it shortly after all. 

[Sergeant Wilson]

1 hour ago, virginton said:

Why let evidence and reason get in the way of 2023's parade  of unhinged hype casting? There'll be a Great Summer Offensive of 2024 replacing it shortly after all. 

I fucking hope so, it's getting a bit Hermann.

[Freedom Farter]

Update on the Nordstream 2 sabotage, speculating on Poland's possible role:

https://archive.ph/IVqyL

Edited January 10 by Freedom Farter

[TxRover]

Ukraine decided to wait five months for the Russians to almost complete a new bridge before eradicating it:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/08/ukraines-funniest-joke-waiting-until-russias-new-strategic-supply-bridge-was-almost-built-then-blowing-it-up-with-rockets/?sh=7fe06ea3d48b

[LongTimeLurker]

Been a while since I posted in this thread, maybe because the whole thing seemed to be drifting into a stalemate and certainly because the signal to noise ratio of interesting posts to timewasting drivel from the resident narcissist and various assorted sociopaths was finally becoming too low, but just occasionally something interesting happens:

 Did the Ukrainians just shoot down a $300 million AWACS plane that was flying along the Azov Sea coast with one of the "frankenSAM" systems that get talked about quite a bit on twitter:

Bad news for Vlad if they did.

[GHF-23]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Been a while since I posted in this thread, maybe because the whole thing seemed to be drifting into a stalemate and certainly because the signal to noise ratio of interesting posts to timewasting drivel from the resident narcissist and various assorted sociopaths was finally becoming too low, but just occasionally something interesting happens:

 Did the Ukrainians just shoot down a $300 million AWACS plane that was flying along the Azov Sea coast with one of the "frankenSAM" systems that get talked about quite a bit on twitter:

Bad news for Vlad if they did.

Thank you for sharing your twitter links with us wise sage, truly you are a serious and worthy thinker whose twitter links insights are required reading for us all. 

[Sergeant Wilson]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

because the signal to noise ratio of interesting posts to timewasting drivel from the resident narcissist and various assorted sociopaths

Dear God almighty!

[Newbornbairn]

That's interesting because it forces the Russian heavy bombers further and further away before launching their missiles, which gives defences more time to track them.

 

Also, if AWACS is forced further back, they're less able to perform overwatch on the front lines which makes it easier for the newly supplied F16s to provide support. 

 

ETA - 

 

 

Whole thread is worth reading. Looks like the 2nd aircraft was shot down by the Russians by accident.

Edited January 15 by Newbornbairn

[ICTChris]

The Fighterbomber channel on Telegram, which posts reliable news about Russian air power and is likely run by a current pilot in the Russian Aerospace forces, has a veiled message about the attack, with no specifics.  Suggests that something went down but no independent confirmation yet.

Some Russian channels suggest that this was friendly fire, which makes very little sense considering the type of planes involved - they fly far away from the front line on very predictable routes.

Russia does not have many of these planes operational - one was allegedly damaged in a sabotage within Belarus last year and after that there were about eight in action.  With Ukraine due to start using F-16 this year these planes will become more important to Russia to co-ordinate their air defences and response to F-16s.

[ICTChris]

Alleged picture of the tailfin of the hit Il 22

[Newbornbairn]

 

[TxRover]

The Mainstay D was reported shot down with all onboard lost. The Il-22M11 is reported to have successfully made an emergency landing, but is a possible airframe writeoff. They have also lost at least 5 Su-34 fighter-bombers in the last couple of weeks, and may have had others damaged on the ground by drone attacker.

The A-50 was reportedly moved up over the Sea of Azov due to problems identifying targets for long range SA-21’s due to Ukrainian destruction of ground based radars in, and adjacent to, Ukraine. There are a reported 8 A-50U’s in Russian service, with as many as 30 additional airframes in various condition, but the Russians lack supplies and parts to built more at anything more than a snails pace. One other A-50U was claimed damaged by drone attack, but this was never verified.

Givem the lost of this AWACS, the Russians have now effectively lost what semblance of control they had over the battlefields (unless they’re willing to roll the dice and put another one up there), and it’s now a toss-up. Assuming the Ukrainians will authorise BVR launch’s of radar guided missiles from the F-16’s coming on line,  neither side will be able to exert any significant control over the battlefront, and the possibility of early intercepts of Russian missiles will increase.