Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Guest Jedi]

Even if an arrangement can be reached in the next few weeks where Ukraine is partitioned, with/or not a Russian puppet in place as PM, it is only a matter of time until Putin tries to march in somewhere else now, having seen that he can 'get away with it' in Ukraine. 

Sanctions will then start rolling back, until his next incursion...and what does NATO do then?

[ICTChris]

Looks like some of the flights have gone from Scotland, I assume that’s Prestwick. That’s likely flights from the USA refuelling, which I believe they have used Prestwick for in the past. 

Edited March 5, 2022 by ICTChris

[djchapsticks]

49 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

We're surely the perfect target?

Small time power wise so pose no threat of retaliation, but big enough that it'll have a worldwide effect. An island so mainland Europe wouldn't be directly affected by the blast beyond some fallout. Friendly enough to America that it makes a statement they can't protect their "friends", but not useful enough to America to make them start a proper nuclear war. We're not in the EU anymore either.

Russian doctrine, drawn up in 2010, pretty much gives Putin freedom to throw nukes about at enemies who "threaten the existence of the state". I've no doubt he could easily paint sanctions killing the economy as that tbh.

You honestly need to simmer down a wee bit. 

I get that you're anxious about it but this level of fatalism when it comes to all out nuclear Armageddon is honestly just a bit misplaced.

You'll still be here in 5 years time lamenting St. Johnstone being stuck in the championship, don't worry about that.

[mizfit]

Well, the daily star is now claiming Putin has Termimal Bowel cancer.

[DiegoDiego]

At the beginning of the century I remember hundreds of folk telling me that religion was the cause of all war, so I think I'm going to agree with Vlad and say this is just a military operation, not a war.

[RedEd]

9 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Looks like some of the flights have gone from Scotland, I assume that’s Prestwick. That’s likely flights from the USA refuelling, which I believe they have used Prestwick for in the past. 

Certainly been a a few USAF flights via Prestwick recently. I've seen Royal Navy Merlins a few times over the last few days. Suggests that the nuclear subs are active. 

[Guest Jedi]

Whatever the outcome in the next few weeks, the Russian threat is going to dominate international and domestic politics for some time to come. Putin has made Indy Ref 2 sail into the horizon for the time being. Elections will now be dominated by questions about defence, security and how to tackle Russia...Independence gets lost in all that.

The only 'argument' in the light of this is the increased importance of being a member of the EU....however, an Independent Scotland's time to join could take years.

If a Ref was held this year, in light of this, reckon it would be around 60-40 'No' now.

[ManBearPig]

29 minutes ago, BFTD said:

Tell you what, if we survive all this, there should be some cracking nuclear war films coming out in a couple of years' time.

I doubt it. Loads of shitey straight to Netflix jobs though.

[ICTChris]

Mastercard and Visa cut off Russia 

[mizfit]

Mastercard and Visa cut off Russia 

So, if you’ve no cash then your fucked basically?

[BFTD]

4 minutes ago, mizfit said:

So, if you’ve no cash then your fucked basically?

If we're headed back to the Cold War era, they can always use this guy:

[djchapsticks]

I'll be honest, when the sanctions were introduced, I genuinely didn't think Russia would become a pariah among privately traded companies on the scale it has. 

It's one thing for governments to cut off bank support and Apple, Samsung etc, worldwide brands putting on pressure but Mastercard and Visa have to all intents and purposes a duopoly on the credit/debit card markets. This one feels like the biggest instance so far of privately owned companies withdrawing and one that will really sting.

As said above, if you've not got cash to hand, you're in trouble.

 

What's Russian for provvy cheque? Or ginger bottle?

Edited March 5, 2022 by djchapsticks

[MuckleMoo]

You honestly need to simmer down a wee bit. 
I get that you're anxious about it but this level of fatalism when it comes to all out nuclear Armageddon is honestly just a bit misplaced.
You'll still be here in 5 years time lamenting St. Johnstone being stuck in the championship, don't worry about that.

Pretty much this. Don't get me wrong, I am concerned but we've been threatened with nuclear annihilation for most of our lifetime. I was a kid growing up in the early 80's. As a child growing up I was convinced that every time an aircraft passed overhead it was a cruise missile. I blame my parents for letting me watch Threads!!!

Ukraine is shafted in regards to being a country but the rest of the world will keep spinning

[Lofarl]

Tesco clubcard points must be worth a fortune over there now.

[Benjamin_Nevis]

Putin has surely fucked this. He thought he'd roll over Ukraine before the west had any time to react. Instead his disorganised army have taken an eternity to make serious gains, f**k knows what's happened to his air force and the west have implemented stricter sanctions than he would have reasonably envisaged. If this takes another few weeks to conclude he's going to risk losing control of a starving, skint and probably seething population at home whilst struggling like f**k to maintain control of the massive country he's just been to war with, probably with an army which may or may not be getting paid by that point. 

[djchapsticks]

2 minutes ago, MuckleMoo said:

Pretty much this. Don't get me wrong, I am concerned but we've been threatened with nuclear annihilation for most of our lifetime. I was a kid growing up in the early 80's. As a child growing up I was convinced that every time an aircraft passed overhead it was a cruise missile. I blame my parents for letting me watch Threads!!!

Ukrania is shafted in regards to being a country but the rest of the world will keep spinning

Oh I think we're all concerned and rightly so. To many, the world 'nuclear' in itself remains taboo, when you combine it with 'weapons' it makes folk shite themselves.

The overarching point though is that if Vlad, really was as 'Mad' as they say he is, he'd have most certainly went off on one at the restrictions and started firing off indiscriminately at this point. He's made a very strong and very clear statement today though that a NFZ (and the trappings of that) would represent direct conflict. He also went on to say that sanctions are an act of war but then in next breath claimed that they'd be dealt with proportionately, so he's clearly not as deranged and hovering over the big red button like many believe and perhaps he himself wants people to believe/fear.

[Guest Jedi]

The sanctions may well bite, but the propaganda machine will be in full flow in Russia. As he simply rigs elections in any case, he doesn't have to worry about being ousted. The state apparatus will be able to spin it as the nasty West punishing Mother Russia, and a bunker mentality will follow for many who live there.

As others have said it took America a full month to be able to take over Iraq militarily, a country which had less resources than Ukraine with which to fight back. Iraq also didn't have arms handed out to the general population. In that sense Putin has probably miscalculated, but the oligarchs have got so much cash that the sanctions would take some time to effect them.

[djchapsticks]

My biggest worry is that if he does die of whatever illness he has, he's already successfully formulated his plans in advance and we'll all end up in a scenario like Saw 3-6 where the antagonist is dead but has micromanaged every possible outcome and devised a plan so fiendish that for months after his demise, we'll still be uncovering cassette tapes in abandoned warehouses and walking into his traps.

 

 

[Florentine_Pogen]

My biggest worry is that if he does die of whatever illness he has, he's already successfully formulated his plans in advance and we'll all end up in a scenario like Saw 3-6 where the antagonist is dead but has micromanaged every possible outcome and devised a plan so fiendish that for months after his demise, we'll still be uncovering cassette tapes in abandoned warehouses and walking into his traps.
 
 

Step away from the crack pipe........... Please.

[djchapsticks]

Just now, Florentine_Pogen said:

24 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

My biggest worry is that if he does die of whatever illness he has, he's already successfully formulated his plans in advance and we'll all end up in a scenario like Saw 3-6 where the antagonist is dead but has micromanaged every possible outcome and devised a plan so fiendish that for months after his demise, we'll still be uncovering cassette tapes in abandoned warehouses and walking into his traps.
 
 

Step away from the crack pipe........... Please.

I'm not sure if you realise - I was being a tiny, *tiny* bit tongue-in-cheek.

Fuck me, I'll need to start my posts with a disclaimer.