Russian invasion of Ukraine

[TxRover]

Ukrainian forces driving the Russians back in the area of Avdiivka, just north on Donetsk. The Russians are reportedly pulling back under fire from positions they have held for nearly 9 years. The Russian Air Force is putting in an appearance too, risking their arses and aircraft in an effort to support the defenders.

Also, reports of increased artillery expenditures in the south as the Russians attempt to blunt any possible counter offensive,

[ICTChris]

Prigozhin has made a video where he stands next to piles of bodies of Wagner fighters and berates the Russian top brass by name for not providing shells. It is completely unhinged, like something out of a movie.

[Newbornbairn]

9 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Prigozhin has made a video where he stands next to piles of bodies of Wagner fighters and berates the Russian top brass by name for not providing shells. It is completely unhinged, like something out of a movie.

I read a thing that Wagner were complaining about a lack of ammunition supplies so they basically hijacked a truck headed for the Russian army. Things escalated and it ended up with Wagner and the Russian army having a shootout with deaths on both sides. Now the Russian army refuses to send their trucks to supply them so Wagner have to use vans and pick-ups to drive to depots and collect it themselves. 

[ICTChris]

Wagner have announced they will leave Bakhmut on May 9th. It’s their ball and they are going home.

[Sergeant Wilson]

1 hour ago, Newbornbairn said:

I read a thing that Wagner were complaining about a lack of ammunition supplies so they basically hijacked a truck headed for the Russian army. Things escalated and it ended up with Wagner and the Russian army having a shootout with deaths on both sides. Now the Russian army refuses to send their trucks to supply them so Wagner have to use vans and pick-ups to drive to depots and collect it themselves. 

 

[ICTChris]

Reports that Ukraine intercepted a Kinzahl supersonic missile yesterday as it headed for Kyiv.  Presumably the inteception was with the new Patriot batteries.  

If you recall among a certain constituency Kinzahl missiles were built up early in the war as a terrifying escalation possibility for Russia that the West couldn't match.  Looks like the limited impact they've had on the war is going to be even less.

[welshbairn]

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Wagner have announced they will leave Bakhmut on May 9th. It’s their ball and they are going home.

Victory Day for WW2, they like ironic threats these Russians. Says he's waiting for an order to withdraw from the Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov though which isn't going to happen.

 

Edited May 5, 2023 by welshbairn

[Alert Mongoose]

The A Team just got on with it and made weapons out of all the stuff lying around ffs

[ICTChris]

Russian occupation forces have announced the evacuation of a number of towns and villages in Zaporizhia Oblast.

[TxRover]

14 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Russian occupation forces have announced the evacuation of a number of towns and villages in Zaporizhia Oblast.

Gonna be a lot of red Russian faces if the Ukrainians hook around Donetsk from the north…

[Newbornbairn]

 

[ICTChris]

Russian author Zakhar Prilepin has been seriously wounded in a bomb attack in Russia. Prilepin’s car was attacked, his driver was killed.

Prilepin was renowned for his nationalistic views and fought with Russian forces in the Donbas, boasting that his unit killed the most Ukrainians. He was also a former member of the Duma.
 

[Guest]

Responsibility for that car bombing of Prilepin claimed by this group: 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atesh_(movement)

[Dev]

22 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Russian occupation forces have announced the evacuation of a number of towns and villages in Zaporizhia Oblast.

OK. Pure speculation.

Maybe the crafty Ruskies are trying to encourage Ukraine to attack an area which suites Russia. It's east of the ZNP Station which has been reported to be a place where explosives have been stored. If the prevailing winds come from the west then an accidental explosion might send nuclear radiation eastwards into the evacuated areas.

Maybe getting the inhabitants out before the balloon goes up?

[Dev]

Here's another interesting piece of pure speculation from this source (via NewsNow):

Window on Eurasia -- New Series: Kyiv Map of Post-Russia Not Only Features New Countries but Also Restores Territories Seized from Others and Sets Up Special Mandates in the North (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com)

Saturday, May 6, 2023

Kyiv Map of Post-Russia Not Only Features New Countries but Also Restores Territories Seized from Others and Sets Up Special Mandates in the North

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 2 – Most predictions about the future reordering of the space now occupied by the Russian Federation focus only on the appearance of new states to be carved out of what is now the Russian Federation. But Vitaly Kulyk, a Ukrainian futurologist, argues that there are two other kinds of territories that must be taken into consideration.

            The director of Kyiv’s Center for Civil Society Studies has come up with a detailed map showing how he thinks the current Russian space may be divided in the course of a complex civil war after the defeat of Russia in its war with Ukraine and the collapse of the Moscow regime’s control over the country (medium.com/@vitaliikulyk_79175/after-the-victory-first-kyiv-map-of-postrussia-f8aed1093ea).

            Kulyk’s ideas concerning the new states – and he provides detailed maps – resemble those of others. But he makes two points which most other prognosticators don’t. He says it is critically important to restore to neighboring countries territories Moscow has taken from them and to set up special mandate territories in areas with fragile eco systems lest these be destroyed.

            The Ukrainian futurologist acknowledges that most regimes in the anti-Putin coalition oppose changing the external borders of the current Russian Federation, but he and his colleagues have concluded that “some historical justice is necessary with regard to Japan, Kazakhstan, Estonia, Finland and Ukraine.

            In his map, the Kuriles and Sakhalin are to be returned to Japan, Pechora to Estonia, Orenburg to Kazakhstan, certain border areas to Finland, and other border regions to Ukraine. Perhaps even more significant, much of what is now the Arctic region of the Russian Federation is to be placed under a mandate in the form of a global natural patronage system.

            Kulyk’s ideas are only that ideas. But they are important in that they are a clear indication that dividing up the Russian Federation is going to be far more complicated and involve far more violence than almost any of those now talking about this process are prepared to admit. As a result, they are useful even if in the end, they are never fully realized.

Posted by paul goble at 5:32 AM 

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, Dev said:

OK. Pure speculation.

Maybe the crafty Ruskies are trying to encourage Ukraine to attack an area which suites Russia...

Don't think there's much doubt that this is where the Ukrainians will attack eventually. Probably more about being able to have a free fire zone where they can shoot anything that moves without worrying about civilians.

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, Dev said:

OK. Pure speculation.

Maybe the crafty Ruskies are trying to encourage Ukraine to attack an area which suites Russia. It's east of the ZNP Station which has been reported to be a place where explosives have been stored. If the prevailing winds come from the west then an accidental explosion might send nuclear radiation eastwards into the evacuated areas.

Maybe getting the inhabitants out before the balloon goes up?

Easterly or southerly winds 60% of the time right now, dropping to a 50/50 split in another two to three months and then quickly back to favoring winds that would drive fallout over Russia. If ZNP gets damaged and releases radiation, Donetsk is quickly uninhabitable.

The more plausible explanation is a continuation of the removal of non-Russian supporting populations from areas Russia wishes to retain control over for the purposes of hindering partisan activity (heavy in that area), intelligence gathering by Ukraine and possibly to make it easier to destroy the inhabited areas to hinder Ukrainian recovery from the war and cover up war crime.

[vikingTON]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/07/czech-president-petr-pavel-warns-against-rushed-ukraine-counteroffensive

An interesting perspective on the conflict. 

[TxRover]

On 05/05/2023 at 05:46, welshbairn said:

Victory Day for WW2, they like ironic threats these Russians. Says he's waiting for an order to withdraw from the Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov though which isn't going to happen.

 

Promised ammunition, withdrawal off.

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, virginton said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/07/czech-president-petr-pavel-warns-against-rushed-ukraine-counteroffensive

An interesting perspective on the conflict. 

Ties in well with the limited attacks we have seen from Ukrainian forces. Generally small attacks in areas with weakened or reduced Russian forces facing them. Perhaps all the talk of the Spring Counteroffensive has been more to keep the Russians keyed up and keeping their forces working on defensive positions rather than getting some rest for elements that have been fighting too long? Add to that the wait allows the ground to firm up and the new armoured forces to be beefed up fully…seems someone is getting good advise.