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Title race


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Next three game are critical for us. We blew a fantastic opportunity against Morton but it’s what we do against cove, Inverness and Arbroath at home this month that was always going to determine our title credentials. 
 

Quite relieved to see Morton lose last night, a win for them would of been huge in terms of building momentum for the title. If we end up in the playoffs, Morton are the team I’d want to play the least tbh. It’s how thistle fans probably view us taking 9/9 off them this season. 
 

We’ll see how thistle get on over the next 3 games before I start getting really worried about them. Morton away, Dundee home and Inverness away this month are incredibly tough fixtures so from a qp perspective, you’d hope there’s points dropped in those encounters. 
 

Dundee still the main ones to worry about currently 

Edited by qpfc
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Ran 1000 sims of the season from here on in and 65 was the key winning points total (it was the mean, median and mode of the 1st place team's final points total if you want the boring stats terms) and 64 the points total at which you're more likely to win the league than not, so I wouldn't count any team out until they can't get to 64.

Agree about our upcoming fixtures, I'm still not all in on us as title winners unless we win the next two. If we lose to Morton on Saturday , by my own logic above we're not out of it but the margin for error would be tiny.

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37 minutes ago, qpfc said:

We’ll see how thistle get on over the next 3 games before I start getting really worried about them. Morton away, Dundee home and Inverness away this month are incredibly tough fixtures so from a qp perspective, you’d hope there’s points dropped in those encounters. 
 

Dundee still the main ones to worry about currently 

Fully agree. The next three games will tell us where we are likely to end up. After the back to back home defeats to Hamilton and Cove I thought we were out of even a play off place. Take 7/9 in next three games (very tough task) and we are in there punching but there isn’t much room for error!

Edited by Sting777
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We never quite managed to get ourselves in the race, but we are now, officially, out of it altogether.

It would take 7 wins and a draw from 9 games to get to 63 points. Not happening.

Need to recover and make sure the play-offs don't slip away, so there's potential for us to damage others in the process... but then there's probably potential for damage in every game every team plays.

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49 minutes ago, Fuctifano said:

Ran 1000 sims of the season from here on in and 65 was the key winning points total (it was the mean, median and mode of the 1st place team's final points total if you want the boring stats terms) and 64 the points total at which you're more likely to win the league than not, so I wouldn't count any team out until they can't get to 64.

Agree about our upcoming fixtures, I'm still not all in on us as title winners unless we win the next two. If we lose to Morton on Saturday , by my own logic above we're not out of it but the margin for error would be tiny.

Needing realistically 20 points plus beating Queens Park at home in April to be in with a shout, need to replicate the run in 2013 again basically. The Accies and Cove games really fucked us, although we might not have been in this situation had McCall stayed. Irony.  

This season definitely got a lot more interesting in the last few games, I certainly wasn't expecting us to still be in with a shout at winning it. I think the pressure is all on QP right now though and I'd still be happy with play-offs, but maybe... just maybe. 

Edited by thistledo
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When it's written out like Fuctifano has above the 10 or 12/1 on us winning the league doesn't seem as generous as some made out. There's not much chance of any team winning 7 of the last 9 like we'd probably need so we'd really be relying on Queen's Park and Dundee collapsing.

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1 hour ago, Fuctifano said:

Ran 1000 sims of the season from here on in and 65 was the key winning points total (it was the mean, median and mode of the 1st place team's final points total if you want the boring stats terms) and 64 the points total at which you're more likely to win the league than not, so I wouldn't count any team out until they can't get to 64.

Agree about our upcoming fixtures, I'm still not all in on us as title winners unless we win the next two. If we lose to Morton on Saturday , by my own logic above we're not out of it but the margin for error would be tiny.

Very inline with historical totals. The lowest winning total since 2000 was 65 (corrected for games played). Gun to the head, I’d pick Queens to win, Partick to nip Dundee for second and Morton in fourth…but it’s still completely wide open, and that Patrick v Morton match is critical for both, especially as Morton is at home.

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23 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Very inline with historical totals. The lowest winning total since 2000 was 65 (corrected for games played). Gun to the head, I’d pick Queens to win, Partick to nip Dundee for second and Morton in fourth…but it’s still completely wide open, and that Patrick v Morton match is critical for both, especially as Morton is at home.

The trigger has been pulled.

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1 minute ago, TxRover said:

Your opinion on the finishing order is desired, sir. Come on, and be honest, not a fan.

Dundee

Queens Park

Patrick Thistle 

Ayr United

 

Patrick Thistle promoted via the Play offs after pumping Kilmarnock.

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18 minutes ago, johnnydun said:

Dundee

Queens Park

Patrick Thistle 

Ayr United

 

Patrick Thistle promoted via the Play offs after pumping Kilmarnock.

Fair enough, but your Dundee onesie is showing, oh Lord.

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18 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Fair enough, but your Dundee onesie is showing, oh Lord.

Not at all, I am fairly confident we will still win this league. All we really have to do is match/better Queens Parks results and beat them on the final day. I have no fear any other team will put in enough of a challenge.

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