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US Presidential Election 2024


scottsdad

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On 03/03/2024 at 01:24, virginton said:

Meanwhile, in other dotard news, just another normal one from the defender of the 'free' world:

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https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/03/01/remarks-by-president-biden-and-prime-minister-meloni-of-the-italian-republic/

Abe Simpson anecdotes crossed with massive fash sympathising, can't imagine how he could possibly lose a second term from here!

Such a symbolic photo. Neoliberalism kissing the head of neofascism.

Neoliberal Silvio Berlusconi's first government in 1994 was formed in alliance with two smaller neofascist parties. He later made this boast about how he'd enfranchised the neofascists into the Italian political system: "We brought them in: it was us who legitimised them, who constitutionalised them". Meloni herself served as a minister in Berlusconi's second government in the late 2000s. 

Since that second Berlusconi term ended in 2011, Italy's government had been running a budget surplus. That was part due to a successful trade surplus and part due to a lack of public spending. Such austerity caused widespread discontent among ordinary Italians. Their living standards had fallen while profits for the elite had increased. This was reflected in the ballot box as any party promising change picked up votes. Not just the fascists of first Salvini then Meloni but also the nonsense Five Star Movement of comedian Beppe Grillo.

The austerity of the 2010s was implemented by Third Way luminary Matteo Renzi, he's the Italian Bill Clinton or Tony Blair. Then also by former Goldman Sachs director and European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi. The thing is, though, the neoliberals don't have the means to control the popular anger and discontent which their policies create. This is when they call in the fascists because the fascists do have the message to appeal to that popular anger. The fascists then capture and harness that popular anger and deliver the electorate to the neoliberals.

Meloni didn't suddenly arise from a secluded fascist boot camp deep in the Roman forest to be elected in 2022. A year prior in 2021 she'd joined the Aspen Institute, a Washington think tank partnered with The Atlantic. The star speaker at their events last year was Kamala Harris. Great care has been taken to shape Meloni. Beginning with Berlusconi inculcating her in neoliberal economic ideas then more recently the Americans have put the finishing touches on her, making sure she's supportive of their hegemony. This is why Biden kissed her head, she's been a good little girl. 

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Aaron Rupar confused criticism of Biden with support for Trump. Jeet Heer's response is a partial explanation. There's also that scrutiny of the man with the most power to shape global events (whoever the US president is at any given moment) can't be suspended just because its an election year. Further, Rupar needs to expand his horizons if he automatically jumps to Republican narratives when he sees Biden criticism. It should've occurred to him it was the embrace of a fascist that folk were criticising.

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38 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

I caught some recent footage of Biden last night.  Is it just me or does he look as if he's aged ten years in the last month ?

Biden dropping dead would be the perfect pre election boost for the democrats. Sympathy vote and someone who's not a doddering gaff making pensioner. 

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56 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

Biden dropping dead would be the perfect pre election boost for the democrats. Sympathy vote and someone who's not a doddering gaff making pensioner. 

The amusing thing is Trump dropping dead would likely result in the Republican Party cruising to a win in November. Biden dropping dead is much less like to cause the converse.

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Emily Maitlis, Jon Sopel and Lewis Goodall need an on/off electrode up their smug arses before any producer allows them on air again. They're an embarrassment to freedom of speech.

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On 22/08/2023 at 14:28, TxRover said:

Nominee, worthwhile bet…winner, sucker bet. The only R’s I’d say would be worth a punt on a bet to win would be Haley and Christie. Trump wouldn’t pay enough for a win (IRL or on a bet), and most of the rest are too batshit mental. Christie stands to benefit the most from a Trump stumble, but Hayley is a decent shout for the Republican’s to try a cross lines appeal, much like Ferraro in the ‘84 contest.

Swing and a miss. 

On 16/01/2024 at 16:10, TxRover said:

The Iowa Caucuses last night had 110,298 votes cast. In the 2020 Presidential Election, there were 897,672 votes for Trump. So, if you assume that was all Republican voters, that’s roughly the top 12.3% of actual Republican voters…except there was a small number of Democrats who registered Republican for this election (you can flip-flop yearly, it only matters which Primaries you can vote in) to support Haley too. Now, you also have to adjust for Independents in the Presidential vote too, so the best guess there is using the 40/40/20 principle, thus Iowa has around 700,000 or so “true” Republican voters. Now we’re at about a maximum of 16-17% of the total Republican voters last night.

The voters at the Caucuses tend to be the most dedicated or hardline voters, thus the high percentage saying Biden didn’t really win. Trump actually told his supporters to vote even if it threatened their lives, so he pushed hard and still only got 51% of the votes.

Not withstanding absurdist statements by pontificating know-it-alls who blithely blather on while knowing jack shit about the electoral process, yesterday’s results were a definite warning shot for Trump. He really needs to move quickly to shore up his support with Republican moderates, but has rebuffed previous opportunities to do so by doubling down on his conspiracy and witch hunt messaging. At the same time, such movement isn’t without risks to his core support.

 

The biggest takeaway from this is an erosion of the Moderate support for Trump and a doubling down by Evangelicals on Trump V2.0…basically Trump is now almost entirely a Christian Nationalist candidate, and Christian Nationalist candidates just landed with a thud in recent elections.

https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-evangelical-christians-iowa-caucus-b2479115.html

This reliance upon Evangelicals is risky, as this community can be fickle, and might be quickly turned against Trump in some situations. For his next trick, Trump will likely have to tack Right on things such an abortion, an area where he’s tried to chart a more Centrist course. Failing to do so in an attempt to retain Moderate voters risks his near messianic stature among the Right as Democratic messaging will likely amplify his Centrist comments in an effort to split off some of his Evangelical support. Those who have failed to moderate their position between the Primaries and the General election have often done poorly, as the only thing in the middle of the road is dead animals.

Swing and a miss. 

On 24/01/2024 at 17:05, TxRover said:

The odds reflect businesses wanting to make money, and the shortness of the odds for Trump reflects his MAGA base willing to bet he'll win while thinking its a sure thing. Thus, you offer the shortest odds possible so if he does win...

Again, the biggest determinant for the election will be turnout. A higher turnout is likely to favor Democrats, hence the weirdness where Republicans are trying to put abortion on the ballot in some States.

The trials certainly play into this. Also, given his showings so far (mixing up Nancy and Nikki, weird Iron Dome antics, misnaming leaders, etc), there's a clear chance for a monumental fuckup at a rally. Nikki knows there are multiple routes that Donald could be knocked out, she just needs to hang in.

Swing and a miss. 

It's almost as if the biggest village idiot in Texas just talks a monumental power of shite about this topic - just like all the others. 

Quote

We all await your onslaught of red dots, clown emojis and have our phrase Bingo Cards waiting.

You set them all up again champ!

🤡  🤡 🤡

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10 hours ago, virginton said:

Swing and a miss. 

Swing and a miss. 

Swing and a miss. 

It's almost as if the biggest village idiot in Texas just talks a monumental power of shite about this topic - just like all the others. 

You set them all up again champ!

🤡  🤡 🤡

 

10 hours ago, virginton said:

They're here: Team Haley and the deluded Texan cheerleader!

 

 

And so, once again VikingWang decides to:

1) Slither forth and vomit another steaming pile of ignorance upon a topic.

2) Take comments of other posters and deliberately misrepresent their meanings with selective quoting and/or outright falsehoods.

3) Attempt to represent that his comments or beliefs were somehow prescient or omnipotent while ignoring his multitude of erroneous posts.

Surely he has just arisen after sleeping off a massive bender due to his crushing disappointment at Morton’s loss on Tuesday night. Hush little angel, Div’s playground is here to provide you some feelings of superiority and self importance. Don’t be mad that your favourite God-Emperor is a bumbling psychopath, distract yourself from reality by commenting and attacking, it’ll make the upcoming second anniversary of your true love’s death in September more tolerable.

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7 hours ago, TxRover said:

 

And so, once again VikingWang decides to:

1) Slither forth and vomit another steaming pile of ignorance upon a topic.

2) Take comments of other posters and deliberately misrepresent their meanings with selective quoting and/or outright falsehoods.

3) Attempt to represent that his comments or beliefs were somehow prescient or omnipotent while ignoring his multitude of erroneous posts.

Surely he has just arisen after sleeping off a massive bender due to his crushing disappointment at Morton’s loss on Tuesday night. Hush little angel, Div’s playground is here to provide you some feelings of superiority and self importance. Don’t be mad that your favourite God-Emperor is a bumbling psychopath, distract yourself from reality by commenting and attacking, it’ll make the upcoming second anniversary of your true love’s death in September more tolerable.

Really struggling to take sides in this one tbh. 

On one hand @TxRoveris a hyper googler, needs to appear as an expert on everything, which tbf, is sometimes useful. But it’s a wee bit “Bot”

On the other hand, @virginton is a sanctimonious, trolling c**t with little to no self awareness, someone I’d hate to meet in the pub. Just an utter w**k, who will undoubtedly reply with, who are you? Standard operating procedure, I’ll be mewling, seething, biege, etc etc, how someone can get pleasure from that is an anathema to me, an obviously intelligent guy resorting to that shite is beyond me, never seems to make a point anymore. 

Cue, Ainsley Harriet. 

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1 hour ago, Brother Blades said:

Really struggling to take sides in this one tbh. 

On one hand @TxRoveris a hyper googler, needs to appear as an expert on everything, which tbf, is sometimes useful. But it’s a wee bit “Bot”

On the other hand, @virginton is a sanctimonious, trolling c**t with little to no self awareness, someone I’d hate to meet in the pub. Just an utter w**k, who will undoubtedly reply with, who are you? Standard operating procedure, I’ll be mewling, seething, biege, etc etc, how someone can get pleasure from that is an anathema to me, an obviously intelligent guy resorting to that shite is beyond me, never seems to make a point anymore. 

Cue, Ainsley Harriet. 

I have a long held suspicion that they are the same poster...

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3 hours ago, Brother Blades said:

On one hand @TxRoveris a hyper googler, needs to appear as an expert on everything, which tbf, is sometimes useful. But it’s a wee bit “Bot”

Not entirely unfair. It's not about appearing an expert, but about sharing data...however, it does rub some the wrong way. Honestly, I've debated simply putting VikingWang on ignore, but instead I think I'll simply ignore his posts. He'll continue charging around and red-dotting posts like it gets him off, but that's his thing, and I don't really care about reds and greens.

1 hour ago, Mark Connolly said:

I have a long held suspicion that they are the same poster...

That, my friend, is a low blow.

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