Scotland vs Norway 19th November 2023

[Stellaboz]

1 minute ago, craigkillie said:

If we win a game it's unlikely we'll go out.

Unlikely but not impossible. 

 

[Molotov]

8 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

If we win a game it's unlikely we'll go out.

We won our last games in both Euro 92 & Euro 96. Still went oot. Gotta love being a Scotland fan. 

[tarapoa]

2 hours ago, Dunning1874 said:

It was a weird atmosphere, I think because we're accustomed to any Hampden dead rubbers occurring when we already can't qualify as opposed to when we already have it wrapped up. 

Well done to those that did go on a Sunday night in November for a dead rubber - especially with all the predictable high profile no shows from both nations.  Glad all that did got an open entertaining match.

Whilst it was a luxury rarely afforded to us (even in the days we did always qualify), it also reminded me how awkward contrived parties can look and feel.

Sometimes better just to let the fans do their own thing, rather than play extremely loud tunes over the Hampden tannoy - some of which are annoying  e.g. Hey Baby which got irritating enough very quickly in 2001.

Still, that's all I can think of to find a wee Victor Meldrew moment of a Monday, so things must be good.......... 

 

[craigkillie]

10 minutes ago, Stellaboz said:

Unlikely but not impossible. 

 

Not impossible, but it's got to be the first target. Ideally we get one of the relative minnows and play them (and beat them) first, then it'll just be a case of trying to grab something in the other games to make absolutely sure. In theory, teams could go out with 4, 5 or 6 points, but that's incredibly unlikely.

Just to add some data to this, in the two previous editions of the Euros where this format has been in play, there have been two teams eliminated each time as third-placed finishers with 1 win and 2 defeats - in each case these sides have had a goal difference of -2 or worse. Additionally, Russia finished bottom of their group with 1 win and 2 defeats in Euro 2020.

However, across the two tournaments, a total of 17 teams have made it through with one win from three games, which means that teams who have won one group match have made it through 77% of the time. Only Portugal have ever made it through without winning a game (and went on to win the tournament having done so).

The point is, we most likely don't have to win two matches.

Edited November 20, 2023 by craigkillie

[djchapsticks]

1 minute ago, Molotov said:

We won our last games in both Euro 92 & Euro 96. Still went oot. Gotta love being a Scotland fan. 

There was no qualification for 3rd place then, only first and second.

A better example is Italy 90 when we beat Sweden but still went out as one of the two worst 3rd place finishes.

[rollstar]

9 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

If we win a game it's unlikely we'll go out.

It's much the same format as Italia '90 (though the rules on separating teams level on points in a group and between groups might have changed). In 1990 we beat Sweden but still managed to be one of the 2 third place teams that got knocked out. Even after the Brazil defeat there was still a chance we might get through but the crucial game in whichever group was relevant didn't go our way the next day.

Of course, on the several occasions that we did get at least a win and a draw, the format of that year's tournament had only 2 teams going through from each group.

[craigkillie]

It was 2 points for a win in Italia 90 which meant the dynamic was a bit different.

[djchapsticks]

Just now, craigkillie said:

 

However, across the two tournaments, a total of 17 teams have made it through with one win from three games, which means that teams who have won 1 group match have made it through 77% of the time. Only Portugal have ever made it through without winning a game (and went on to win the tournament having done so).

I think Switzerland drew their way through their WC group as well in 2010 or 2014. In fact didn't they almost 0-0 their way to a 1/4 final?

[Molotov]

1 minute ago, djchapsticks said:

There was no qualification for 3rd place then, only first and second.

A better example is Italy 90 when we beat Sweden but still went out as one of the two worst 3rd place finishes.

Yeah. Appreciate that.

Was at all those games so it’s been a tough journey!

Italia 90. Pishing down with rain.

Soaked through and the joy of a flooded campsite when we returned. 

Still feel that Jim Leighton was not in right frame of mind following his Man U cup final sacking by Fergie. 

Fcuk Brazil. 

[tarapoa]

3 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

A better example is Italy 90 when we beat Sweden but still went out as one of the two worst 3rd place finishes.

I still have nightmares about Uruguay's 94th minute winner vs South Korea - when hardly any games lasted 94mins.

...........or indeed Van Breukelen making a mistake that Zander Clark wouldn't have made blindfolded, followed by the Dutch and Irish giving it W.Germany v Austria 82 stuff for the last 20 minutes.

If neither of those had happened, we were through - regardless of the late f**k up/ Taffarel wondersave against a half-ersed Brazil in Turin.

[djchapsticks]

2 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

I think Switzerland drew their way through their WC group as well in 2010 or 2014. In fact didn't they almost 0-0 their way to a 1/4 final?

Never mind, I'm talking shite. I've just amalgamated about 8 tournaments worth of beige nothingness to form a Swiss sleep spectacular.

[craigkillie]

1 minute ago, djchapsticks said:

I think Switzerland drew their way through their WC group as well in 2010 or 2014. In fact didn't they almost 0-0 their way to a 1/4 final?

I think you're confusing it with the fact that they went out of the 2006 World Cup without conceding a goal. Won their group thanks to a 0-0 with France and two 2-0 wins over Togo and South Korea, then went out on penalties to Ukraine after a 0-0 draw.

Paraguay got to the final of the 2011 Copa America without winning a game - three draws in the group stage and two penalty shoot-out wins in the knockouts before getting gubbed by Uruguay in the final.

[rollstar]

4 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

It was 2 points for a win in Italia 90 which meant the dynamic was a bit different.

Just looking at the 1990 results on Wikipedia, with 3 points for a win, Scotland and Austria would have been level on points with Ireland and the Netherlands, but no one else. I think Ireland and the Netherlands would still have gone through with the better goal differences.

[djchapsticks]

2 minutes ago, tarapoa said:

I still have nightmares about Uruguay's 94th minute winner vs South Korea - when hardly any games lasted 94mins.

...........or indeed Van Breukelen making a mistake that Zander Clark wouldn't have made blindfolded, followed by the Dutch and Irish giving it W.Germany v Austria 82 stuff for the last 20 minutes.

If neither of those had happened, we were through - regardless of the late f**k up/ Taffarel wondersave against a half-ersed Brazil in Turin.

The Kluivert 'consolation' goal at Euro 96 was my first real memory of 'fucking f**k this' supporting Scotland.

England had absolutely 100% done us a favour in picking the Dutch apart and that goal to turn the score from 4-0 to 4-1 was the difference.

That and Gary Mac's penalty. Even if we'd scored that and Gazza then somehow still did what he did, it would've been enough to carry us through.

[rollstar]

The USSR got a 4-0 win in 1990, and a better goal difference than Scotland, but would have gone out whatever happened elsewhere as they finished 4th in their group.

Edited November 20, 2023 by rollstar

[djchapsticks]

15 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

I think you're confusing it with the fact that they went out of the 2006 World Cup without conceding a goal. Won their group thanks to a 0-0 with France and two 2-0 wins over Togo and South Korea, then went out on penalties to Ukraine after a 0-0 draw.

100% I am. I associate Switzerland games with having a wee doze at major tournaments so got myself pretty mixed up.

[Steven W]

Unlikely I know, but in the off chance that they post here, a wee word of thanks to the two guys who looked after and comforted my son at the South Stand turnstiles when, owing to a hiccup with the turnstile, he found himself having gone through the turnstile and I was stuck on the other side and unable to get in (eventually after a poor show from the stewards I just squeezed in beside someone else). Was a pretty anxious few minutes for him (and me) but these two guys were brilliant and said they wouldn't leave him until I was through 

[Skyline Drifter]

54 minutes ago, rollstar said:

Just looking at the 1990 results on Wikipedia, with 3 points for a win, Scotland and Austria would have been level on points with Ireland and the Netherlands, but no one else. I think Ireland and the Netherlands would still have gone through with the better goal differences.

Well Ireland weren't even in the equation since they finished 2nd but aye. Dutch would still have gone through with a better goal difference than us and Austria. Wiki lists us below Austria in 6th but I can't see any grounds for that. I assume that's just alphabetical order? I think we were tied with Austria and would have needed a coin flip had we been 4th / 5th instead of 5th / 6th.

Point stands though that if we get one group win in Germany and don't lose heavily in either of the others, we're far more likely than not to progress.

[Skyline Drifter]

34 minutes ago, Steven W said:

Unlikely I know, but in the off chance that they post here, a wee word of thanks to the two guys who looked after and comforted my son at the South Stand turnstiles when, owing to a hiccup with the turnstile, he found himself having gone through the turnstile and I was stuck on the other side and unable to get in (eventually after a poor show from the stewards I just squeezed in beside someone else). Was a pretty anxious few minutes for him (and me) but these two guys were brilliant and said they wouldn't leave him until I was through 

That's great but what fecking size are you? I can barely get through the damned South Stand turnstiles on my own! It's NOT comfortable. I couldn't take a babe in arms through a turnstile with me FFS and whilst I'm big, I know plenty bigger people who go to football. I often wonder what they do if people physically can't get through them?

[Steven W]

5 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

That's great but what fecking size are you? I can barely get through the damned South Stand turnstiles on my own! It's NOT comfortable. I couldn't take a babe in arms through a turnstile with me FFS and whilst I'm big, I know plenty bigger people who go to football. I often wonder what they do if people physically can't get through them?

Last night was one of the few occasions in life when being a fairly wee chap worked out well. It was still a very tight squeeze with the other guy, but panic was beginning to set in and I was happy to give anything a go