Relegation thread - who's going down?

[The Toun Clock]

Today was a complete disaster, we were really poor and deserved everything we got. However, I think we’ll be okay and avoid automatic relegation but we need to pull out injured fingers out of our injured arseholes rapid.

Two games in hand on the two directly above us and a game in hand on the two teams below us. All ifs and buts but win the games in hand and we could be knocking on the door of the promotion playoffs.

Big thing for us is getting players back fit, most not far away it sounds but another announced as our for 6-8 weeks earlier today.

A lot of football to be played. I’m hoping today is going to be a bit of a wake up call. Queens Park at East End next weekend then Arbroath the following weekend, six points and nothing less will do I’m afraid. Back to basics, scrap the back five and have a bit of dig. They’re capable.

[itzdrk]

Looking at a points per game* projection of the current managers in 4th to 10th:

Morton - 1.45

Airdrie - 1.33

Ayr** - 1.5

Inverness - 1.35

Dunfermline - 1.14

Queens Park** - 2

Arbroath - 0.25

Projecting that over remaining games and adding to current points totals 

4 - Greenock Morton - 52

5 - Queens Park** - 51

6- Airdrie - 47

7- Ayr** - 45

8/9 - Inverness - 41 / Dunfermline - 41

10- Arbroath - 21

Spoiler

*

Obviously the table won't look like this because football is beautiful chaos, but you get a rough idea.  

 

**

It's far too early to properly model Ayr and Queens Park on points per game.    

For Ayr It's probably not unrealistic that Brown gets somewhere in the 1.5 region (1.35 to 1.6 IMO) but after only 2 games it's totally unknown that it will definitely happen. 

For Queens Park I think it is unrealistic to pick up 2ppg, Ian Murray is sitting at that total from the start of the season for example. 

 

[keptie]

8 hours ago, third lanark said:

I think Arbroath really need to bin McIntyre to have a chance to stay up as guy has done nothing and looks to have taken them backwards since he has joined

You do realise that we have had an injury crisis with us barely having 11 fit players to field a team since he came in. Pep Guardiola wouldn't have done any better.

[Wacky]

40 minutes ago, keptie said:

You do realise that we have had an injury crisis with us barely having 11 fit players to field a team since he came in. Pep Guardiola wouldn't have done any better.

Injury crisis? What’s one of them? 

[keptie]

2 minutes ago, Wacky said:

Injury crisis? What’s one of them? 

When you have to play your back up goalkeeper at centre forward, Your defence consists of midfielders, your only "fit" defender is playing with a broken toe. I could go on but it would only bore you.

[Diamond1924]

Arbroath for sure. Dunfermline/Ayr/QP to join them. Hopefully Ayr.

[Highlandmagar]

Arbroath and Ayr.

[ecto]

13 hours ago, third lanark said:

I think Arbroath really need to bin McIntyre to have a chance to stay up as guy has done nothing and looks to have taken them backwards since he has joined

Enough of this nonsense, we have had enormous injuries, often nearly half our squad injured, so please take your uninformed nonsense elsewhere 

[ellichtie]

I think we’re probably down, and it’s between QP and ICT for 9th - I think Dunfermline will turn it round based on nothing but vibes.

[oneteaminglasgow]

5 hours ago, keptie said:

Pep Guardiola wouldn't have done any better.

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that Pep Guardiola might be a better manager than Jim McIntyre, and he definitely would have. 

[Alert Mongoose]

Since there is a thread citing exactly that, I'll go for ICT. 9th to win the playoff.

[Rhys McCabe Hype Train]

10 hours ago, itzdrk said:

 

4 - Greenock Morton - 52

5 - Queens Park** - 51

6- Airdrie - 47

7- Ayr** - 45

8/9 - Inverness - 41 / Dunfermline - 41

10- Arbroath - 21

  Reveal hidden contents

*

Obviously the table won't look like this because football is beautiful chaos, but you get a rough idea.  

 

**

It's far too early to properly model Ayr and Queens Park on points per game.    

For Ayr It's probably not unrealistic that Brown gets somewhere in the 1.5 region (1.35 to 1.6 IMO) but after only 2 games it's totally unknown that it will definitely happen. 

For Queens Park I think it is unrealistic to pick up 2ppg, Ian Murray is sitting at that total from the start of the season for example. 

 

This is a great analysis and probably won’t be far off the final mark. I had reasonably assumed that around the 35 point mark would mean safety, but such is the competitiveness/shiteness of the gabble below 4th shows that above 40 points needs to be the target. 

[Aufc]

I think we are better than the other teams in the discussion, however, still not 100% confident it won’t be us

[keptie]

39 minutes ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that Pep Guardiola might be a better manager than Jim McIntyre, and he definitely would have. 

Of course Guardiola is a better manager but he hasn't worked with a part time team with a ridiculous injury list that he cannot just throw millions to fix so I seriously doubt it.

[Exiledjag]

I wouldn't mind Dundee utd and Raith being relegated but they have a better chance of promotion than going down!

So will opt for Arbroath (because of their horrendus injury list) and Dunfermline (because of their manager who has never impressed me).

 

[TxRover]

13 hours ago, itzdrk said:

Looking at a points per game* projection of the current managers in 4th to 10th:

Morton - 1.45

Airdrie - 1.33

Ayr** - 1.5

Inverness - 1.35

Dunfermline - 1.14

Queens Park** - 2

Arbroath - 0.25

Projecting that over remaining games and adding to current points totals 

4 - Greenock Morton - 52

5 - Queens Park** - 51

6- Airdrie - 47

7- Ayr** - 45

8/9 - Inverness - 41 / Dunfermline - 41

10- Arbroath - 21

  Reveal hidden contents

*

Obviously the table won't look like this because football is beautiful chaos, but you get a rough idea.  

 

**

It's far too early to properly model Ayr and Queens Park on points per game.    

For Ayr It's probably not unrealistic that Brown gets somewhere in the 1.5 region (1.35 to 1.6 IMO) but after only 2 games it's totally unknown that it will definitely happen. 

For Queens Park I think it is unrealistic to pick up 2ppg, Ian Murray is sitting at that total from the start of the season for example. 

 

1 hour ago, Rhys McCabe Hype Train said:

This is a great analysis and probably won’t be far off the final mark. I had reasonably assumed that around the 35 point mark would mean safety, but such is the competitiveness/shiteness of the gabble below 4th shows that above 40 points needs to be the target. 

I just doubt it’ll be that clean or that many points. Earlier on we were looking at the possibility of two teams topping 80 points, that ship has sailed.

It’s absolutely usual for tenth place to be somewhat a laggard, so Arbroath seem a reasonable choice for 10th…but 21 points is almost unimaginable, especially as they’ll been crippled with injuries. 28 to 30 seems the sweet spot, depending upon how quickly some players return.

Ninth place is the interesting one. The Pars should be the favourites to avoid it between them, Ayr, ICT and Queen’s Park, but their injury situation makes it highly unlikely they’d get to a predicted 41. Queen’s and ICT are coming off some new manager runs, while Ayr is slightly favoured due to a two extra points in the same number of games as ICT and a fresher manager too. Unless Queen’s win the game in hand over Ayr, they’ll be in the same or similar situation as ICT. It’s likely to be a royal rumble between ninth and sixth the rest of the way, and I suspect Ayr will pip sixth, just in front of Queen’s, the Pars will manage to scramble enough points for eight and ICT will face the playoffs. My guess is about 35 for ICT, 37 for the Pars, 40 for Queen’s and 41 for Ayr.

Airdrie, Morton and Partick are all comfortable enough, with a game or two in hand over all but the Pars below them, with their current positions likely to hold. Probably ending up around 46-49 for Airdrie, Morton likely to fall back to earth around 50-55, and Partick ending around 58-62. Raith have matched their early season run of goodness with plumbing the depths of horror recently, but it’s still all one goal decisions…it’s likely to stabilise and end around 65-69 points. Dundee United have done what most winners do and ground out results once the initial fairy dust shook off, and look decent for 72-78 points. The wider range for the top few reflects the inevitable nasty last few matches as teams kick and scratch for position (which is also why any predictions are likely to be absolute pish).

[Grumpy Soo-sider]

Definitely tight again this year. The championship is a bonkers league - and probably the best league for excitement as it tends to stay competitive throughout the season. So, here is my take which as you can see is not based on any objective fact whatsoever. 

Dundee Utd the get automatic promotion - because they're probably the best team in the league but have still had some strange results this season.

Partick to reach the play-offs again - because they're from Glasgow and that must mean something (especially if you're not one of the ugly sisters).

Arbroath to go down automatically - because their squad is so small and for them to get a decent run together without further injuries is unlikely.

So who's in the other play-off spot. Ourselves, Ayr, Caley seem to be the likely contenders. It can't be QP because we're from Glasgow and ... (see above); Caley are a really disappointing team. They're currently my local team (for my sins) and, TBH, any time I've seen them they have been pretty dire; Ayr come and go so can't be discounted from 9th place. I'll go for Ayr to fill the play-off spot because they're building a much better new stand than we were able to do (and we had three times longer to do it in).

[Thumper]

Ninth is going to the wire anyway, and could be three or four teams on the final day.

ICT would obviously be funniest. Ayr are certainly not safe. Dunfermline will be fine once their injury crisis is over.

Queens Park it is.

[Oceanlineayr]

Arbroath will struggle to close that 5 point gap with 9th they have and look doomed. Their upcoming fixtures don't help them too much either.

Ayr beating Queens Park last week was vital. While beaten yesterday Ayr looked considerably better than the meek capitulation Bullen would have certainly overseen had he still been manager. Murphy, Chalmers and Dowds is a good forward line in this league but our defence and goalkeeping recently inspires no confidence. Attacking players should help keep Ayr in the league but it's balanced out by a defence that will concede frequently.

Queens Park with Paton's form, Dom Thomas and Davidson as manager should be safe enough.

Inverness seem safe enough. Alex Samuel on loan looks a promising signing (usually got him in football manager and had ridiculous pace of in it).

Dunfermline look like they are on a woeful run of form at the moment but if their injuries ease up should get some positive results.

Overall prediction.

Ayr to finish 9th and get relegated by Hamilton in the play offs. Ahkeem Rose with the winner because we forgot to put in a loan clause preventing him playing against his parent club.

[DAFC.]

Would be a real shocker to see Arbroath manage anything but 10th. At this moment in time, it'll be ourselves or Inverness for 9th IMO. If we do finish 9th, we should have all our key players available, so I think we will be alright in a play-off scenario, but you can never be sure. We are sinking like a stone at the moment and our best hope is that we are less shit than ICT for rest of the season. After yesterday's shambles, you really worry from our perspective how the players at our disposal turn it around given that 1. They aren't very good and 2. Their confidence must be lower than a Kirkcaldy burd's knickers. Queens Park will be absolutely fine with the signings they have made and their new manager. They have a brilliant striker, someone who we came up against constantly last season and never bothered to enquire.