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Relegation thread - who's going down?


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11 hours ago, keptie said:

You do realise that we have had an injury crisis with us barely having 11 fit players to field a team since he came in. Pep Guardiola wouldn't have done any better.

Has it been injuries in games or have some in training.  Under McCall at least half of ours appeared to be picked up in training.

What were Mcintyres January signings like and did he utilise the loan market well 

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11 hours ago, keptie said:

You do realise that we have had an injury crisis with us barely having 11 fit players to field a team since he came in. 

There are villages in South Sudan who realise that Arbroath have had an injury crisis by now. 

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I would say whoever finishes 9th will win the playoff and remain the in the Championship.

It's such a crazy league that anything can happen, but I would say Arbroath will finish bottom. 

Dunfermline have games in hand, but are they winnable with their current injury crisis? If not, I would say they will drop into that 9th spot.

QP,Ayr and ICT should have enough to escape the relegation play off spot. If the Pars do get on a wee run I would say QP will drop to 9th. 

 

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32 minutes ago, third lanark said:

Has it been injuries in games or have some in training.  Under McCall at least half of ours appeared to be picked up in training.

What were Mcintyres January signings like and did he utilise the loan market well 

Most have been in games and yes he got some decent players in some of who got injured

28 minutes ago, virginton said:

There are villages in South Sudan who realise that Arbroath have had an injury crisis by now. 

The lines of communication to these South Sudan villages must be better than the communication to some of the users on P&B who clearly have no idea

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chuckles-im-in-danger.gif

Feels apt for us right now. Seems like we are sleep walking towards relegation and just expect ourselves to magically find our way out of trouble. I would not be at all surprised to see us go down the way things are going.

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I think Arbroath will go down. For 9th I'd like it to be Queens Park, for, y'know, "Gretna vibes" reasons. But realistically 9th could be anyone outwith the current top 3 (although Morton would need some run of bad form to end up there).

What does look highly likely is that the 40 point=safety guarantee of previous years may well not apply.

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Of the teams in bother at the moment, Queen's Park are the team I reckon are most likely to pull clear.

They have some excellent players and are only in trouble due to horrendous game management under the previous regime, be it awful use of subs, defensive shape or trying to play too much football in the wrong areas.

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13 hours ago, Colkitto said:

Dunfermline have games in hand, but are they winnable with their current injury crisis? If not, I would say they will drop into that 9th spot.

We might have to flood our pitch again and play all our games in April and May. 

I think we'll finish 8th, and it won't be pretty. Not sure who will be 9th. Could be Ayr, could be Inverness, could be Queens Park. Won't be Arbroath, they are down sadly. 9th place will stay up via the play offs unless we finish there as we don't do play offs. 

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10. Arbroath 9. Dunfermline 8. Queens Park 7. Inverness 6. Ayr United

That's my current prediction, but it is going to be very tight between 6th and 9th, injuries etc could make a massive difference, that's why I have Dunfermline there for now.  Arbroath gone.

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image.thumb.png.7e6bc3d85751bc69257be4402960f167.png

 

Here's the data since the Scottish 2nd tier moved to 3 points for a win and a league of 10 in 1994-95, excluding the 2 shortened covid seasons, so 27 seasons. I've added back in the Dundee and Dunfermline points deductions to work out a points won "on the field" number for each position. 

9th place has always had some form of jeopardy whether it being automatic relegation or play off place, table sorted on 9th place totals.

40 points hasn't been enough for survival on 3 of the 27 seasons. Oddly, 2 of them are Airdrie with the other being Cowdenbeath, and all 3 of those are in season when the title winner scored <70 points, DU are on course for around 75ish points at the moment.

That aside, Dunfermline are the only team in the bottom 5 (Morton are almost safe now and will obvs be fine, and don't see Airdrie getting dragged into it, though if there's one team who could go down with 40+ points, the history above suggests it's them ...) who haven't changed their manager and while on very short term they're looking the dodgiest, the other teams will likely have new manager bounces wear off.

 

 

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After seeing the performance against Dundee United on Saturday I reckon we'll have enough about us to be clear of trouble with a couple of weeks to go. We probably won't be in the conversation for the plays offs but P6-7 is where we'll likely land. There is still time to hopefully time to bring in another body or two to see us through as we are still a bit bare in some positions which could cause problems if any injuries crop up. 

Hard to see past Arbroath going down just now and Dunfermline joining them in the playoff berth. 

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48 minutes ago, Fuctifano said:

 

 

40 points hasn't been enough for survival on 3 of the 27 seasons. Oddly, 2 of them are Airdrie with the other being Cowdenbeath, and all 3 of those are in season when the title winner scored <70 points, DU are on course for around 75ish points at the moment.

 

In order to guarantee survival you need to finish 8th  - 40 points would still leave you in 9th place in 9  seasons on your spreadsheet.

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15 minutes ago, Arachnophile said:

In order to guarantee survival you need to finish 8th  - 40 points would still leave you in 9th place in 9  seasons on your spreadsheet.

Aye, but then the points totals are all relative to each other in each season - so in order to have a team in 9th place reach 40 points in those seasons, the other teams would also have to have different points totals so we can’t really know whether 40 would actually have left them ninth or not. 

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