General Election 2024

[MazzyStar]

1 minute ago, eindhovendee said:

Steve Bray is unbelievably consistent. 

 

This man will do everything except apply for a job. 

[MONKMAN]

52 minutes ago, MazzyStar said:

Dumfries is about the only non Tory place in the whole of d&g. It just happens to split down the middle in and in 2 separate constituencies with places like Langholm, Sanquhar, Stranraer, Gretna etc. 

It's not split down the middle though, the town itself is pretty much entirely within the D&G constituency.  

[RH33]

Paisley's out in Northern Ireland is pretty historic. 

We had chance ditch FPTP and didn't. Stupidly.

Bye Mogg!

[Jedi2]

If Proportional Representation had been in place it would have been roughly..(based just on vote share) and these obviously are 'roughly'

Scotland:

Labour 22 (36%)

SNP 17 (30%)

Tory 7 (13%)

Reform 5 (8%)

Libs 5 (9%)

Greens 1 (5%)

 

If at UK level...

Lab  241

Tory 156

Reform 91

Libs 78

So PR maybe not 'so good' in allowing Reform to be a force.

Though obviously PR if at a GE would be regionally based, so % in S.East England, NE England etc rather than 'nationally' but still, interesting to see national vote share v seats.

 

 

Edited July 5 by Jedi2

[coprolite]

1 minute ago, Mr Waldo said:

Scottish income tax was designed for 51% pay less, 49% pay more.

Factually, those who pay less, pay a little less, those who pay more, pay increasingly more with a net gain of over 1 billion. The 'over billion' figure comes from Patrck Harvie.

That's what a progressive tax system should do. That's a straightforward policy choice to raise money for increased spending commitments. 

The bit that i think it's legitimate to criticise is the threshold not matching NICs limits so there's a band with a higher rate than higher earners. 

Some people may think that £48k for example is a decent salary so paying 50% on the top slice of that is justified. But then it's hard to justify that falling to 44% when you get over £53k.

I think though that the band that applies to is about £7k wide. £7k at a differerential of 12% from ruk gets you to £840 ish, with another £20 per £1,000 so you'd need to be on c £70k to have a four figure difference i think - unlikely to be a "vast majority" (i think this was @Todd_is_God's claim.) 

I can see why people in that bracket would feel hard done by and see it as incompetence. 

Tories on the other hand have a history of increasing VAT (regressive), flat rate cuts (neutral % wise but save more cash for high earners) and threshhold freezing (extremely regressive). 

Labour won't reverse these. 

I'd kind of prefer the botched attempts at progressive tax rises to the smoke and mirrors in favour of high earners. 

Imo if tax is a decisive issue for anyone deciding between SNP and Labour /Conservative it's purely self interest. 

 

[Dunning1874]

2 hours ago, The Master said:

Expecting people to vote blindly for the SNP just because they’re the only “Scottish party” that stands a chance of having significant numbers at Westminster is nonsense. 

The blame for this result lies with the SNP themselves. To suggest otherwise is incredibly disingenuous. 

Yep, a very Scottish Labour 2010s mentality. Unless you want to spend a decade in the wilderness and only get back in based on the lack of popularity of other parties who've run their course rather than anything you do yourself, you can't go down that road.

1 hour ago, Oceanlineayr said:

I always regarded it as a poor strategy by the SNP to send their higher calibre members (Flynn, Black etc) to Westminster instead of Holyrood.

Holding Westminster to account on committees and other issues (or trying to unlike Labour for a long period of time) gets so little media attention it's not worth the effort.

I don't think this has ever been a strategy on the part of the SNP. They had a huge influx of new MPs in 2015 when people who'd been around standing in elections for years had already swept up Holyrood seats on an unprecedented scale in 2011 so weren't available to stand, and throughout that 2015-17 parliament there was still a perception (accurately) that their Westminster group was the B Team and their best talent was at Holyrood. Even among those who were experienced having been down there for years, Robertson and Hosie were seen as big names, Salmond obviously shifted back down there to get out the road at Holyrood having resigned as FM, but even in that group you had a clownshoe like MacNeil.

Some of those elected for the first time in 2015 did turn out to be competent and effective, but for every Mhairi Black (who let's not forget was 20 and wasn't far off a paper candidate in a seat that was seen as one of Labour's safest at the time of selection) and Alison Thewliss you had more like Michelle Thomson, Natalie McGarry and Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh: completely out of their depth for being thrust into having a national profile, scandal ridden or both. This happened because they had no idea of the landslide win they were about to have and weren't vetting candidates nearly well enough. Through every election since having so many elected parliamentarians has meant both parliaments being filled with some utter guff, not to mention the other non Sturgeon/Murrell related scandals that hit both their parliamentary groups such as MacKay at Holyrood and Grady at Westminster.

It was all just councillors and activists being thrown in to sink or swim rather than a tactic. No one thought that the 31 year old they had contesting a Tory held Westminster seat in 2019 would become their Westminster leader by 2022, Flynn just happened to impress once elected in a way many others haven't, and once someone competent is in at Westminster saying "oh, we'd actually be better off with them in the cabinet than in opposition down there so let's shift them to Holyrood" is easier said than done.

[pozbaird]

1 hour ago, GordonS said:

If people who voted in 2017 and 2019 didn't vote this time, that's a choice they're entitled to make and it tells us even more about the lack of popularity of the incoming government.

We'll never know how much the turnout was impacted by voter ID, late postal and proxy votes and folk being on holiday though.

Agree, will be a whole package of reasons why there’s a low turnout. Surely the biggest reason though will be general apathy and increasing disdain towards those involved in partygate, insider information betting on the election date… any number of things that could make anyone simply say ‘fcuk the lot of them, they’re all kunts’. Blue tents on yer’ front lawn, dodgy finances, a new campervan for Life on the Bay at Pettycur, giving the manager’s gig to a useless lightweight like the very useless Humzahhhh… just guessing. No matter the kuntiness level, I still voted. Simply on an issue like our local MP was pretty good at his job. No bigger picture, just for the local guy. He got pumped.

[Todd_is_God]

9 minutes ago, coprolite said:

That's what a progressive tax system should do. That's a straightforward policy choice to raise money for increased spending commitments. 

The bit that i think it's legitimate to criticise is the threshold not matching NICs limits so there's a band with a higher rate than higher earners. 

Some people may think that £48k for example is a decent salary so paying 50% on the top slice of that is justified. But then it's hard to justify that falling to 44% when you get over £53k.

I think though that the band that applies to is about £7k wide. £7k at a differerential of 12% from ruk gets you to £840 ish, with another £20 per £1,000 so you'd need to be on c £70k to have a four figure difference i think - unlikely to be a "vast majority" (i think this was @Todd_is_God's claim.) 

I can see why people in that bracket would feel hard done by and see it as incompetence. 

Tories on the other hand have a history of increasing VAT (regressive), flat rate cuts (neutral % wise but save more cash for high earners) and threshhold freezing (extremely regressive). 

Labour won't reverse these. 

I'd kind of prefer the botched attempts at progressive tax rises to the smoke and mirrors in favour of high earners. 

Imo if tax is a decisive issue for anyone deciding between SNP and Labour /Conservative it's purely self interest. 

 

You do not need to be anywhere near £70k to have a 4 figure difference.

You will be more than 4 figures before even hitting the higher rate threshold in England.

The “vast majority” I was referring to were the public service workers who are, apparently, very happy to pay a “marginal” increase.

Edited July 5 by Todd_is_God

[Granny Danger]

I’d love the folk who are spouting ‘the SNP have only themselves to blame line’ to explain what Labour would have done better at Holyrood the last few years.

Also whilst not trying to minimise Campervangate it is barely a ripple compared to the tsunami of Tory Westminster scandals, and there will be much worse from Labour over the next five years.

[Skyline Drifter]

1 hour ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Yes, SD , we know you don't consider being called a Tory a slur.   Some of us do.

Have you lived in that Mundell seat from the 90s until now?  The vast bulk of the town wasn't.

I've had a Labour MP and an SNP one in recent years, also living in the town.  Had I lived a little West of here (all part of my seat now) during the Hector Monroe years, I'd have had an SNP MP.

It's not as firmly a Tory area as you imply/wish.

I can't say it remotely bothers me to be honest. I find it moderately amusing it clearly bothers you. For what it's worth (again), I didn't vote Tory, I haven't voted Tory in God knows how long, certainly more than a decade, maybe two decades. So you can stick your "wish" nonsense where the sun don't shine.

Hector Monro was my MP when I was born. I've lived in my current house, or one directly opposite it since 1986. I couldn't recall the exact time of boundary changes but having checked it now it seems I was represented by Russell Brown from 1997 to 2005. I was in David Mundell's constituency when it was first created in 2005 and have been ever since until this election apparently (which I genuinely was unaware of until yesterday morning). It was only when I went to vote I realised I wasn't in it any longer. The house hasn't moved, the boundary line has. I appreciate that's partly accident of my location but fact remains I've been in a Conservative constituency for 46 of my 54 years.

Even living further into Dumfries as you do, Russell Brown held it for Labour from 1997 to 2017 and then Richard Arkless for the SNP for the 2 years following. Ian Lang held Galloway for the Conservatives from 1979 to 1997 and then Peter Duncan from 2001 to 2005. It did have an SNP MP in Alasdair Morgan in between though. Apparently it was also SNP before Lang but I wasn't aware of that until I looked it up just now.

I never claimed it was "firmly" a Tory area but the fact remains across the two constituencies and across the last 50 years (so 100 years of representation), Labour have managed 20 years under Brown and the SNP a total of 11 years under Arkless, Morgan and a George Thompson. The other 69 years have been Conservative. The D&G seat is a three way marginal but returns Tory the majority of the time. The Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale seat isn't even particularly close. It is firmly Tory for now.

Edited July 5 by Skyline Drifter

[Michael W]

The guy that beat Liz Truss did so with 26.7% of the vote. 

That must be near a record low?

Edited July 5 by Michael W

[Groundhopping Adventures]

Sir Keir and Lady Victoria going to downing street. What a man of the people we've elected eh

[Theatom]

3 minutes ago, Groundhopping Adventures said:

Sir Keir and Lady Victoria going to downing street. What a man of the people we've elected eh

…but his dad was a toolmaker.

[Binos]

9 hours ago, DrewDon said:

It looks like the people of Glasgow, unlike the great people of Aberdeen, have fallen for Sir Beer Korma. 

Rangers fans

[eez-eh]

1 minute ago, Granny Danger said:

I’d love the folk who are spouting ‘the SNP have only themselves to blame line’ to explain what Labour would have done better at Holyrood the last few years.

Also whilst not trying to minimise Campervangate it is barely a ripple compared to the tsunami of Tory Westminster scandals, and there will be much worse from Labour over the next five years.

Who is saying that Labour would have done better? I don’t think anyone would do any better but anyone who wasn’t born yesterday knows that doesn’t matter to most of the electorate. When the ruling party is in such a bad way they inevitably take a kicking for it regardless of how shite the opposition is.

As someone who (reluctantly) voted for them yesterday the constant whataboutery as if you’re defending your favourite football team at all costs does my tits in.

[Groundhopping Adventures]

Just now, Theatom said:

…but he is a tool.

FTFY

Spoiler

Genuinely good luck to him just couldn't resist 

 

[MazzyStar]

8 minutes ago, Groundhopping Adventures said:

Sir Keir and Lady Victoria going to downing street. What a man of the people we've elected eh

Is baroness chapman with them? 

[GordonS]

14 minutes ago, pozbaird said:

Agree, will be a whole package of reasons why there’s a low turnout. Surely the biggest reason though will be general apathy and increasing disdain towards those involved in partygate, insider information betting on the election date… any number of things that could make anyone simply say ‘fcuk the lot of them, they’re all kunts’. Blue tents on yer’ front lawn, dodgy finances, a new campervan for Life on the Bay at Pettycur, giving the manager’s gig to a useless lightweight like the very useless Humzahhhh… just guessing. No matter the kuntiness level, I still voted. Simply on an issue like our local MP was pretty good at his job. No bigger picture, just for the local guy. He got pumped.

Turnout:

Scotland 59%, down 8.5%

England 60%, down 7.4%

Wales 56%, down 10.3%

Northern Ireland 57%, down 4.5%

Only an idiot would make comparisons with Northern Ireland. So... is it worth noting they already had voter ID and that's why their fall in turnout was much lower?

[Groundhopping Adventures]

They clearly went for a pish but they're too polite to say

[Shandon Par]

9 minutes ago, Groundhopping Adventures said:

Sir Keir and Lady Victoria going to downing street. What a man of the people we've elected eh

Enjoyed seeing his predecessor turn up for his resignation in a private jet too.