General Election 2024

[DeeTillEhDeh]

1 hour ago, Jedi2 said:

Biggest and most important lesson Labour learned from 2017 and 19 was the need to ensure that our vote was spread around the country, rather than piling up the higher numbers in big cities and safe seats.

Factors already mentioned with Farage returning to lead Reform and eat away at the Tory vote, as well as disillusionment with the SNP record in Scotland, has obviously helped that vote spead across the UK 

It is notable however that the only place where Labour's vote is actually down is Wales, where of course there is (understandably) disillusionment with Labour's own record in govt.

2 big battles to come at both Holyrood and the next GE, where it will be important to keep that vote spread going (on a relatively) small overall share of around 35% both in Scotland and the UK. (I accept that there is no great 'love' for Starmer yet, more of a 'not the Tories again narrative)

Clearly, if the SNP sort themselves out they are still likely to win the most seats at Holyrood (though not a majority), and Reform will still be a factor which could start to eat away at Labour votes as well as Tory.

It's relying on a poor SNP showing between now and 26, as well as disillusioned Tories continuing to switch to Reform...neither is guaranteed.

What will also be required, of course, is to be seen to be making tangible improvements to people's lives in Health, Education, Housing, Social Services, the Environment, and Immigration over the next 2 years (initially). Ideally it will be a 2 term task though.

If we can't do that, then a (potentially reinvigorated) SNP will deserve to win at Holyrood again in 26.

Independence hasn't 'gone away', far from it, (and nor it should) and the grassroots will be important outside the SNP to keep in going in the next 2 years as well.

Lots to play for all round...

What have you done with @Jedi2?

[DeeTillEhDeh]

44 minutes ago, MazzyStar said:

Yaasss! Gordon rolling out the big boy insults.

Well you are a Tankie - what's the issue?

[DublinMagyar]

15 hours ago, KirkieRR said:

So we're forever North Britain, set up to be ignored by a cocky right-wing Labour Brexiteer Government. I'd move to Ireland and apply for citizenship if I could afford to.

we're full!

[Fullerene]

1 hour ago, Jedi2 said:

Biggest and most important lesson Labour learned from 2017 and 19 was the need to ensure that our vote was spread around the country, rather than piling up the higher numbers in big cities and safe seats.

Factors already mentioned with Farage returning to lead Reform and eat away at the Tory vote, as well as disillusionment with the SNP record in Scotland, has obviously helped that vote spead across the UK 

It is notable however that the only place where Labour's vote is actually down is Wales, where of course there is (understandably) disillusionment with Labour's own record in govt.

2 big battles to come at both Holyrood and the next GE, where it will be important to keep that vote spread going (on a relatively) small overall share of around 35% both in Scotland and the UK. (I accept that there is no great 'love' for Starmer yet, more of a 'not the Tories again narrative)

Clearly, if the SNP sort themselves out they are still likely to win the most seats at Holyrood (though not a majority), and Reform will still be a factor which could start to eat away at Labour votes as well as Tory.

It's relying on a poor SNP showing between now and 26, as well as disillusioned Tories continuing to switch to Reform...neither is guaranteed.

What will also be required, of course, is to be seen to be making tangible improvements to people's lives in Health, Education, Housing, Social Services, the Environment, and Immigration over the next 2 years (initially). Ideally it will be a 2 term task though.

If we can't do that, then a (potentially reinvigorated) SNP will deserve to win at Holyrood again in 26.

Independence hasn't 'gone away', far from it, (and nor it should) and the grassroots will be important outside the SNP to keep in going in the next 2 years as well.

Lots to play for all round...

Corbyn got more votes and lost than Starmer did when he won.  However if a football match is all about scoring more goals than you concede then the same thing applies to Politics.

Corbyn may have been a shot in the arm but there was always a Stop-Corbyn vote.  Maybe you can call it a conspiracy but plenty of people thought he lacked patriotism, would quit NATO,  be friends with Cuba and Venezuela and be everything they are not.

By contrast, I don't think there was much of a Stop Starmer vote apart from people who preferred some other party in the first place.

[MazzyStar]

27 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Well you are a Tankie - what's the issue?

[Gordon EF]

1 hour ago, Jedi2 said:

Biggest and most important lesson Labour learned from 2017 and 19 was the need to ensure that our vote was spread around the country, rather than piling up the higher numbers in big cities and safe seats.

Factors already mentioned with Farage returning to lead Reform and eat away at the Tory vote, as well as disillusionment with the SNP record in Scotland, has obviously helped that vote spead across the UK 

It is notable however that the only place where Labour's vote is actually down is Wales, where of course there is (understandably) disillusionment with Labour's own record in govt.

2 big battles to come at both Holyrood and the next GE, where it will be important to keep that vote spread going (on a relatively) small overall share of around 35% both in Scotland and the UK. (I accept that there is no great 'love' for Starmer yet, more of a 'not the Tories again narrative)

Clearly, if the SNP sort themselves out they are still likely to win the most seats at Holyrood (though not a majority), and Reform will still be a factor which could start to eat away at Labour votes as well as Tory.

It's relying on a poor SNP showing between now and 26, as well as disillusioned Tories continuing to switch to Reform...neither is guaranteed.

What will also be required, of course, is to be seen to be making tangible improvements to people's lives in Health, Education, Housing, Social Services, the Environment, and Immigration over the next 2 years (initially). Ideally it will be a 2 term task though.

If we can't do that, then a (potentially reinvigorated) SNP will deserve to win at Holyrood again in 26.

Independence hasn't 'gone away', far from it, (and nor it should) and the grassroots will be important outside the SNP to keep in going in the next 2 years as well.

Lots to play for all round...

 

The main lesson is that if you wait around long enough, the government of the day will become hated enough to effectively off themsevles.

We're probably moving back into an era of Westiminster and Holyrood elections being failry decoupled, with people being comfortable voting for different parties at each, depending on the circumstances.

In terms of the next general, agreed, I think Starmer and Labour will be given a fair shot and if they can show tangible progress, will likely win again. If not, their majority will be increadibly vulnerable.

I think it'll be the economy that they're judged on first and foremost. If they can get inflation and the cost of living under control and make people feel like the rot has at least been stopped, that'll probably do. Health and Education, etc will take take longer to fix and, honestly, I don't think people actually give a f**k about stuff like the environemnt when it comes to picking a government.

 

[Freedom Farter]

As much as I despise these individuals, Rees-Mogg and the like, I'm not feeling joy over yesterday because I know the damage already done in the last 14 years. I listened to a Ukrainian political economist recently talking about problems in Ukraine (which precede but have been hugely exacerbated by the Russian invasion).  She was explaining how the state has always been very weak and so civil society has instead had to carry the can. Charities, basically, have had to provide Ukrainians with basic services. Having read a bit about Georgia, I know that's the situation there too. 

Well what was David Cameron's thing in 2010? The Big Society. The idea that civil society was to replace the state. State provision was to be defunded (austerity) and charity was to replace it. So we got monstrous developments like the rise of food banks. They weren't a thing pre-2010. UK became like a post-Soviet state, like Ukraine and Georgia. Folk in those two nations have had these conditions enforced upon them and they struggle against it all the time. Brits fucking voted for it!

Many of the people who voted Tory some time in the last decade and a half voted Labour yesterday. An even greater number of folk either refused to back or actively sabotaged alternatives to those Tory governments. Ed fucking Balls, figures like that now gloating on our TV screens. He fucking did this! He voted for the Tory austerity in the 2010s when he was supposed to be the opposition. He now has a podcast with George Osborne. History gets rewritten right in front of us.

[Lex]

The SNP no longer have an MP in the central belt. 
From complete domination of the region to absolute zero, over night.

 

Edited July 5 by Lex

[Fullerene]

1 hour ago, Freedom Farter said:

As much as I despise these individuals, Rees-Mogg and the like, I'm not feeling joy over yesterday because I know the damage already done in the last 14 years. I listened to a Ukrainian political economist recently talking about problems in Ukraine (which precede but have been hugely exacerbated by the Russian invasion).  She was explaining how the state has always been very weak and so civil society has instead had to carry the can. Charities, basically, have had to provide Ukrainians with basic services. Having read a bit about Georgia, I know that's the situation there too. 

Well what was David Cameron's thing in 2010? The Big Society. The idea that civil society was to replace the state. State provision was to be defunded (austerity) and charity was to replace it. So we got monstrous developments like the rise of food banks. They weren't a thing pre-2010. UK became like a post-Soviet state, like Ukraine and Georgia. Folk in those two nations have had these conditions enforced upon them and they struggle against it all the time. Brits fucking voted for it!

Many of the people who voted Tory some time in the last decade and a half voted Labour yesterday. An even greater number of folk either refused to back or actively sabotaged alternatives to those Tory governments. Ed fucking Balls, figures like that now gloating on our TV screens. He fucking did this! He voted for the Tory austerity in the 2010s when he was supposed to be the opposition. He now has a podcast with George Osborne. History gets rewritten right in front of us.

People talk about how useless the last 5 Tory PMs have been but for me the worst was David Cameron who sowed the seeds for everything that followed.

Ideologically he wanted a smaller state and used the global crisis to get it (with no small help from easily persuaded Liberal Democrats).

Edited July 5 by Fullerene

[Jedi2]

For Holyrood Labour should also get in early to stress that they would keep free prescriptions, dental care, and no tuition fees for domestic students.

In addition they have to come up with an offer of Devolving full taxation powers (including NI), Broadcasting, and parts of Immigration law. With a big majority at WM they have the opportunity to do this. Basically strengthening Devolution. Barnett should also be increasing from the current £41 billion.

Have to answer the question of 'what can Labour do for Scotland', with WM Labour showing that they can make a genuine difference if both administrations are Labour. Can't and must not, just be rhetoric.

Presumably the SNP will go with a 'pro-Indy majority' is a Referendum. Again, Labour can and should say that, while not agreeing that a Ref is necessary that they would 'recognise' that result and grant one, while offering enhanced Devolution and protection of SNP measures which are popular.

They have a great opportunity from today to show that Scotland is important to them, and again of they fail to capitalise on that from this position, they would deserve the SNP to win again. They have to be 'serious' about resetting the relationship between WM and Holyrood now and be different from the Tories. Won't get a better chance.

Edited July 5 by Jedi2

[Monkey Tennis]

11 minutes ago, Fullerene said:

People talk about how useless the last 5 Tory PMs have been but for me the worst was David Cameron who sowed the seeds for everything that followed.

Ideologically he wanted a smaller state and used the global crisis to get it (with no small help from easily persuaded Liberal Democrats).

I agree about Cameron's utter culpability.

However, Liz Truss was in a different league of awfulness.

[git-intae-thum]

28 minutes ago, Lex said:

The SNP no longer have an MP in the central belt. 
From complete domination of the region to absolute zero, over night.

 

The Slab re-awakening in Central Scotland

Fortunately daylight will return. 

 

[git-intae-thum]

5 minutes ago, Jedi2 said:

For Holyrood Labour should also get in early to stress that they would keep free prescriptions, dental care, and no tuition fees for domestic students.

In addition they have to come up with an offer of Devolving full taxation powers (including NI), Broadcasting, and parts of Immigration law. With a big majority at WM they have the opportunity to do this. Basically strengthening Devolution. Barnett should also be increasing from the current £41 billion.

Have to answer the question of 'what can Labour do for Scotland', with WM Labour showing that they can make a genuine difference if both administrations are Labour. Can't and must not, just be rhetoric.

Presumably the SNP will go with a 'pro-Indy majority' is a Referendum. Again, Labour can and should say that, while not agreeing that a Ref is necessary that they would 'recognise' that result and grant one, while offering enhanced Devolution and protection of SNP measures which are popular.

They have a great opportunity from today to show that Scotland is important to them, and again of they fail to capitalise on that from this position, they would deserve the SNP to win again. They have to be 'serious' about resetting the relationship between WM and Holyrood now and be different from the Tories. Won't get a better chance.

It would be great if they did all these things.

Can't see it.

[Leith Green]

4 minutes ago, Jedi2 said:

For Holyrood Labour should also get in early to stress that they would keep free prescriptions, dental care, and no tuition fees for domestic students.

In addition they have to come up with an offer of Devolving full taxation powers (including NI), Broadcasting, and parts of Immigration law. With a big majority at WM they have the opportunity to do this. Basically strengthening Devolution. Barnett should also be increasing from the current £41 billion.

Have to answer the question of 'what can Labour do for Scotland', with WM Labour showing that they can make a genuine difference if both administrations are Labour. Can't and must not, just be rhetoric.

Presumably the SNP will go with a 'pro-Indy majority' is a Referendum. Again, Labour can and should say that, while not agreeing that a Ref is necessary that they would 'recognise' that result and grant one, while offering enhanced Devolution and protection of SNP measures which are popular.

They have a great opportunity from today to show that Scotland is important to them, and again of they fail to capitalise on that from this position, they would deserve the SNP to win again. They have to be 'serious' about resetting the relationship between WM and Holyrood now and be different from the Tories. Won't get a better chance.

I agree with this in theory, but unfortunately I don't believe for a minute that Labour give 2 fucks about Scotland now they have their 30+ MPs back.

[Jedi2]

2 minutes ago, Leith Green said:

I agree with this in theory, but unfortunately I don't believe for a minute that Labour give 2 fucks about Scotland now they have their 30+ MPs back.

It's been a long road back to today from Jim Murphy's Irn Bru crates and the banter years of Dugdale and Leonard.

No question that, as we saw in 2011, that folk can switch their votes from WM to Holyrood, but as said, to not take this chance to build on 30+ MPs would be criminal 

[Lurkst]

Watching clips of various declarations on the news, there were noticeably less people witnessing the counts than in the past. Buggerallqunt in fact. Apathy rules!

 

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, Jedi2 said:

For Holyrood Labour should also get in early to stress that they would keep free prescriptions, dental care, and no tuition fees for domestic students.

In addition they have to come up with an offer of Devolving full taxation powers (including NI), Broadcasting, and parts of Immigration law. With a big majority at WM they have the opportunity to do this. Basically strengthening Devolution. Barnett should also be increasing from the current £41 billion.

Have to answer the question of 'what can Labour do for Scotland', with WM Labour showing that they can make a genuine difference if both administrations are Labour. Can't and must not, just be rhetoric.

Presumably the SNP will go with a 'pro-Indy majority' is a Referendum. Again, Labour can and should say that, while not agreeing that a Ref is necessary that they would 'recognise' that result and grant one, while offering enhanced Devolution and protection of SNP measures which are popular.

They have a great opportunity from today to show that Scotland is important to them, and again of they fail to capitalise on that from this position, they would deserve the SNP to win again. They have to be 'serious' about resetting the relationship between WM and Holyrood now and be different from the Tories. Won't get a better chance.

Fantasy island nonsense. The battle line for the next Holyrood election is perfectly obvious: both SNP and Labour will blame the other government for not being able to deliver. It will be an attritional slanging match that will make France v Portugal in the Euros look like a total football exhibition match. 

As more recent incumbents, all the advantage and incentive is with Labour to double down on that strategy. The SNP need to avoid that trap or they'll be in opposition. 

There will be no serious attempt at settling the union on different foundations because that's not what Unionism actually involves. It is about shutting up and eating your cereal.

[ClydeTon]

1 hour ago, Jedi2 said:

For Holyrood Labour should also get in early to stress that they would keep free prescriptions, dental care, and no tuition fees for domestic students.

In addition they have to come up with an offer of Devolving full taxation powers (including NI), Broadcasting, and parts of Immigration law. With a big majority at WM they have the opportunity to do this. Basically strengthening Devolution. Barnett should also be increasing from the current £41 billion.

Have to answer the question of 'what can Labour do for Scotland', with WM Labour showing that they can make a genuine difference if both administrations are Labour. Can't and must not, just be rhetoric.

Presumably the SNP will go with a 'pro-Indy majority' is a Referendum. Again, Labour can and should say that, while not agreeing that a Ref is necessary that they would 'recognise' that result and grant one, while offering enhanced Devolution and protection of SNP measures which are popular.

They have a great opportunity from today to show that Scotland is important to them, and again of they fail to capitalise on that from this position, they would deserve the SNP to win again. They have to be 'serious' about resetting the relationship between WM and Holyrood now and be different from the Tories. Won't get a better chance.

Labour won't do that unless they do it in England. Scottish Labour does what Starmer says (unlike Wales' government, which seems to act with it's own ideas sometimes) - and they, as one party, can't maintain all of these nice things in Scotland and leave England behind.

That being said, it would be a vote winner. These policies are the SNP's greatest successes. Free Tuitions, School Meals, Attainment Funding, Baby Boxes, Bus Passes, etc. all help the younger generations and, crucially, parents. Free Prescriptions and Dental care help everyone.

If Labour promised all that, I think they'd win. The SNP would then become single-issue and that never works (as shown by the multitude of 'Vote for me for Palestine' candidates who lost, and the entirety of Reform UK.)

Holyrood elections can be an entirely different ball game, though. It's very hard to tell how this will change things at this stage, IMO.

 

[Theroadlesstravelled]

Labour in Westminster and Hollyrood would be terrible for Scotland IMO. They are heavily London-centric and strongly Unionist.

They'd turn Scotland into a UK region and bring us into line with one of their Upperramsbottomdonshires, killing off any of the good laws The SNP created.

[Freedom Farter]

53 minutes ago, ClydeTon said:

as shown by the multitude of 'Vote for me for Palestine' candidates who lost

The inverse of your claim happened.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9e9ydj215yo

Edited July 6 by Freedom Farter