Whilst the general point is right, the excess deaths are being compared to 2016, 17, 18, 19 and 21 which isn't ideal given the massively increased mortality in the first two months of 2021 will skew it a bit higher. But even when taking 15-19 instead we are still seeing some excess coming through for every week so far - standardising for the age of the population, mortality in the first 6 weeks of the year is pretty much the same as the first six weeks of 2020.