Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[D Angelo Barksdale]

What an utterly pointless little rabble the Lib Dems are.

[scottsdad]

1 hour ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

How can the Tories be 4 points up given their conference shambles?

In Scotland, they have the election winning machine that is Douglas Ross...

[ICTChris]

The Lib Dems will have a good election I think. They and the Greens can chip away the Tory vote and some seats in the South East while getting 0.1% in most of the country.

[Johnny Martin]

On 09/10/2023 at 15:12, DeeTillEhDeh said:

But happy with a partitioned Ireland  . . .

Yep.

Two entirely different situations.

[Johnny Martin]

On 08/10/2023 at 23:04, Ziggy Sobotka said:

I was meaning your post.

There is nothing immoral about requesting a democratic vote.

There is when it's a re run, parliament doesn't want it and most importantly the people don't support it or it's cause.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

2 minutes ago, Johnny Martin said:

There is when it's a re run, parliament doesn't want it and most importantly the people don't support it or it's cause.

Even if all these things were true, it is still not immoral to request a democratic vote.

[ICTChris]

Genuinely wonder what will happen within the SNP if these polls are anything like accurate and they lose half their seats or more.

On one level, what direction would the party go in, who could replace the leader, what sort of policy would they have regarding independence etc? On another level, how would activists react to such a defeat? Would people walk away, become more radical or  stick with one-more-push?

Edited October 10, 2023 by ICTChris

[HibeeJibee]

Not sure what parameters this thread operates within, but earlier today Australians voted against establishing a consultative chamber of parliament for Aborigines, to be called the Indigenous Voice. It was their first constitutional referendum in quarter of a century.

It needed a simple majority of voters - but also a majority of states (not counting the Northern or Capital territories).

Anyway they have voted 'No' by 60% to 40%... with 7.9M against and 5.2M in favour on 75% turnout; apparently these will rise as postal votes are usually sent on or around polling day with fortnight to arrive. Every single state voted against (as did the Northern Territory):




However you can only gaze incredulously at the spectacularly catastrophic handling of the pro-Voice campaign: who 12 months ago were leading 65% to 35% - and led in every single state (and territory).

Over the year their support virtually halved, in a constant and near-perfect downward curve... and these opinion polls have proven slightly optimistic in their favour, placing those taken recently against the actual result:

Edited October 15, 2023 by HibeeJibee

[Granny Danger]

5 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said:

Not sure what parameters this thread operates within, but earlier today Australians voted against establishing a consultative chamber of parliament for Aborigines, to be called the Indigenous Voice. It was their first constitutional referendum in a quarter of a century. It needed a simple majority of voters - but also a majority of states (not counting the Northern or Capital territories).

Anyway they have voted 'No' by 60% to 40%... with 7.8M against and 5.1M in favour... on 73% turnout. Every single state voted against (as did the Northern Territory):




However you must almost admire the spectacularly catastrophic handling of the pro-Voice campaign: who 12 months ago were leading 65% to 35% - and lead in every single state (and territory).

Over the year their support virtually halved, in a constant and near-perfect downward curve... and these opinion polls have proven slightly optimistic in their favour placed against the result:

Lots of lies being told (not surprising) lots of opportunist politicians using the campaign to further their own ends (even less surprising).

[Lurkst]

2 hours ago, HibeeJibee said:

Not sure what parameters this thread operates within, but earlier today Australians voted against establishing a consultative chamber of parliament for Aborigines, to be called the Indigenous Voice. It was their first constitutional referendum in quarter of a century.

It needed a simple majority of voters - but also a majority of states (not counting the Northern or Capital territories).

Anyway they have voted 'No' by 60% to 40%... with 7.8M against and 5.1M in favour... on 73% turnout. Every single state voted against (as did the Northern Territory):




However you must almost admire the spectacularly catastrophic handling of the pro-Voice campaign: who 12 months ago were leading 65% to 35% - and led in every single state (and territory).

Over the year their support virtually halved, in a constant and near-perfect downward curve... and these opinion polls have proven slightly optimistic in their favour placing those taken recently against the actual result:

That's some collapse, what happened to the campaign? My cousins were saying they feel ashamed to be Australian after the result.

 

[vikingTON]

4 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

Lots of lies being told (not surprising) lots of opportunist politicians using the campaign to further their own ends (even less surprising).

But enough about your daft boomer decision to vote for Brexit, what is your view on Australia's referendum?

[ICTChris]

 

https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1713527858461601871?s=46&t=VI9PBOGiArQ8qgQBk99O4w
 

 

[O'Kelly Isley III]

On 10/10/2023 at 20:03, ICTChris said:

Genuinely wonder what will happen within the SNP if these polls are anything like accurate and they lose half their seats or more.

On one level, what direction would the party go in, who could replace the leader, what sort of policy would they have regarding independence etc? On another level, how would activists react to such a defeat? Would people walk away, become more radical or  stick with one-more-push?

There will be a fairly long period of being in opposition as opposed to in office, accompanied by a long bout of introspection which would hopefully allow the formation of a pan-political and civic independence movement involving various strands of opinion and ideas and crucially coalescing around a serious and detailed prospectus.

It's a huge task and will require a considerably better calibre of politicians and strategists than exists at present if today's exercise in unrealistic and foolhardy electoral bravado is anything to go by.

[Suspect Device]

There should be another Yougov poll coming out soon. I'm just filling it in now.

 

[strichener]

On 08/10/2023 at 20:41, superbigal said:

Thank feck the coppers don't have any difficult crimes to investigate.  Over 2 years without dropping it or charging anyone is an absolute joke. Probably cost more now in wages, coffee and doughnuts than any money misappropriated.

Since when have the police been required to make a "profit" on criminal investigations?

[orfc]

On 18/10/2023 at 15:11, Suspect Device said:

There should be another Yougov poll coming out soon. I'm just filling it in now.

 

When you're saying he's doing very badly, are you saying the conservatives should be polling a lot higher in Scotland but he's holding them back?

[Suspect Device]

12 minutes ago, orfc said:

When you're saying he's doing very badly, are you saying the conservatives should be polling a lot higher in Scotland but he's holding them back?

 

They certainly seem to think but I think he is just doing badly as a human being, not just as Tory leader.

 

Edit: I answered the same for Starmer/Sunak and Useless. 

Edited October 19, 2023 by Suspect Device

[Granny Danger]

Looking forward to wee Rushi’s reaction to the two by election results.  The uncomfortable awkward ‘carry on as normal’ smile is going to be stretched to its full extent.

[Highlandmagar]

23 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Looking forward to wee Rushi’s reaction to the two by election results.  The uncomfortable awkward ‘carry on as normal’ smile is going to be stretched to its full extent.

Makes not a jot of difference.  Headline: Fake Tories take Real Tories seats in by elections. 

[BFTD]

Love this quote. Cheer up Festus mate - democracy's on its way out anyway!