General Election 2015

[Enigma]

I'm pretty sure that full on DevoMax is a possibility in a Labour SNP agreement event. That's good for the independence cause. I think it would be hilarious to get that signed into law then find a reason to go against the agreement and f**k Labour with a vote of no confidence. While I doubt we'll get anything from the Tories a minority government or a small Tories-Lib-DUP majority presents ample meddling opportunity.

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

And that's fine, I'm not posting that because I want to "tell you how to feel", rather because I recognise myself from 6 months ago in parts of your posts.

The UK government were - as demonstrated by the various companies and people that admit they were asked to interject - pulling the strings to tell us that food prices would rise, that there's be a global economic crash and all manor of other guff and yet 45% saw through it. On the only available polling since, that number is only going up.

Yes voters were factually speaking, more informed on average than No voters. As practically a matter of evolution the "don't know, vote No", "eat your cereal" tactics can't work forever.

If you're still upset about it, I can understand but you can use that energy more constructively. The folk you're bitter towards want you to stay pessimistic and offputtingly abrasive to potential converted Independence supporters. Its not up to me to tell you what to do but you don't have to be

[Kyle]

Alex Massie...not for the first time, gets it.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/the-tory-partys-attitude-towards-scotlandisasstupidasitiscynical/

He most certainly does. I wish he would shut up about it until after the election though!

[FuzzyAffro]

That's very naive imo. Devo-Max will never, ever, ever be on the table in a deal with Labour.

They just can't do that, if they do Labour is fucked in England forever, and that's the place they really care about as that's 85% of the UK's population.

Labour will NEVER offer Devo-Max or anything remotely close to it, they simply can't. They will offer something a million miles from Devo-Max and scream from the rooftops about how amazing and massive it is, so we don't see it for the sop it is and ask for more that they can't give.

I think it's really important people understand that, Labour cannot and will not ever offer Devo-Max. But they need you to think you've already got it so you don't keep asking for it as they can't give it to you.

[FuzzyAffro]

And that's fine, I'm not posting that because I want to "tell you how to feel", rather because I recognise myself from 6 months ago in parts of your posts.

The UK government were - as demonstrated by the various companies and people that admit they were asked to interject - pulling the strings to tell us that food prices would rise, that there's be a global economic crash and all manor of other guff and yet 45% saw through it. On the only available polling since, that number is only going up.

Yes voters were factually speaking, more informed on average than No voters. As practically a matter of evolution the "don't know, vote No", "eat your cereal" tactics can't work forever.

If you're still upset about it, I can understand but you can use that energy more constructively. The folk you're bitter towards want you to stay pessimistic and offputtingly abrasive to potential converted Independence supporters. Its not up to me to tell you what to do but you don't have to be

Alright well fair enough I'll try. The biggest solace I have found is that no voters are simply going to die sooner, the demographics are in our favour, and 40% is a base camp for yes now. I say 40 not 45 as I believe some could change their minds, but most won't. That leaves 10% to be convinced.

I think you're a pretty sound geezer and hope we both get to be on the winning side one day.

[Kyle]

I'm pretty sure that full on DevoMax is a possibility in a Labour SNP agreement event. That's good for the independence cause. I think it would be hilarious to get that signed into law then find a reason to go against the agreement and f**k Labour with a vote of no confidence. While I doubt we'll get anything from the Tories a minority government or a small Tories-Lib-DUP majority presents ample meddling opportunity.

That would be awesome, but I can't see it. Labour would have absolutely no chance of winning support back in England if they agreed to such a thing and really need the Scottish vote to have any chance of an outright majority. We need to accept we're in for a long game here. It will come again, we just need to make sure the economic argument is stronger next time as that really let us down in the last campaign. Those fag packet voters who weren't willing to do their own research (which is obviously their right in a democratic society) need to have it spelled out to them that they'll benefit in an independent Scotland.

[I'm Brian]

He most certainly does. I wish he would shut up about it until after the election though!

Aye very true that. I've got a sneaky wee suspicion they won't listen though

[Enigma]

That's very naive imo. Devo-Max will never, ever, ever be on the table in a deal with Labour.

They just can't do that, if they do Labour is fucked in England forever, and that's the place they really care about as that's 85% of the UK's population.

Labour will NEVER offer Devo-Max or anything remotely close to it, they simply can't. They will offer something a million miles from Devo-Max and scream from the rooftops about how amazing and massive it is, so we don't see it for the sop it is and ask for more that they can't give.

I think it's really important people understand that, Labour cannot and will not ever offer Devo-Max. But they need you to think you've already got it so you don't keep asking for it as they can't give it to you.

I'm not so sure, when it come down to forming a UK government in this way Milliband will be faced with, let's not forget, his boyhood dream of becoming PM or not. Remember what the Lib Dems voted for for just a sniff of power, it can make you do funny things.

Incidentally why would labour be fucking in England if Scotland got Devo Max and presumably Westminster became EVEL? Especially is devo max was packaged as the usual line in the sand, settles will, nationalism stone dead etc. thing? By getting EVEL they could claim the 'deal' had shut up the bothersome scots once and for all and that they had 'saved' Britian.

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

Aye I think we all called it ahead of Smith. Little enough that they're not opening the can of worms even more (and piss off England more) but enough to pat themselves on the back and say they've delivered.

Surely to fucking god nae c**t is buying the "vow delivered" stuff though? What a horrible corner they've forced themselves into.

Also, good stuff from Massie again. The bit about his unease at sympathising with SNP voters is honest and telling.

[FuzzyAffro]

I'm not so sure, when it come down to forming a UK government in this way Milliband will be faced with, let's not forget, his boyhood dream of becoming PM or not. Remember what the Lib Dems voted for for just a sniff of power, it can make you do funny things.

Incidentally why would labour be fucking in England if Scotland got Devo Max and presumably Westminster became EVEL? Especially is devo max was packaged as the usual line in the sand, settles will, nationalism stone dead etc. thing? By getting EVEL they could claim the 'deal' had shut up the bothersome scots once and for all and that they had 'saved' Britian.

If there's EVEL Labour would virtually never be able to pass a single piece of legislation in the Commons again. They just wouldn't have the votes. And if there's Devo-Max, or anywhere near it, there has to be EVEL.

If Devo-Max happens they genuinely might as well liquidate the Labour party and start again, so they will never, ever agree to that under any circumstances at all.

Though as I said they will want you to think they have and even that you've already got it. That's why they are trying to describe Smith as 'Home Rule' etc.

[vikingTON]

Was having a debate with a tory on why I was voting SNP but I kinda feel I lost honestly. He mention the rise of tax allowance, tax breaks for oil, falling unemployment and cut of unnecessary benefits. I responded with the fact the NHS is being privatized, the rich getting richer and the trident ridiculous cost.

Anyone willing to help me by adding more facts to my arsenal for the travel home?

Erm, none of those deliver any meaningful solutions to the national question, an issue to which Tories remain "staunchly" Unionist. They've also been forced to back-peddle on the economy endlessly from their initial claim to eliminating the deficit within this government to a government-based stimulus, partly based on hilariously dog-whistle issues like propping up the housing market during this electoral cycle.

The economy is improving... based largely on the growth of a larger, personal debt bubble in the UK than led to the contraction of the economy since 2007. The economy isn't improving at all; we're just in a position now to personally borrow more to consume goods than we were before: that is quite clearly not a sustainable basis for economic growth.

[vikingTON]

Your analysis is absolutely bollocks. What future would there be for dozens of MPs representing working class areas of England and Wales if they went into any sort of pact with the Tories. It would rip the Labour Party apart. The media down south may be going full pelt in demonising the SNP for electoral reasons but do you really think it is what is uppermost in the mind of English Labour MPs and voters?

Observe the terms of the Fixed Term Parliamentary Act. If the Tories get a pathetic plurality, they cannot possibly establish a government; if Labour, as a ragged second place then scrambles for a government, it has to deal with pesky JockNats which it doesn't wish to deal with - if not, a vote of dissolution is required within three weeks, an act which neither UK party really has the funds or preparation for: it's a goner.

In that scenario and given their far more similar politics than the SNP to the Red Tories, a Grand Coalition cannot be ruled out: in Germany it would be viewed as natural.

Closet Labour fluffers have to realise that it's not 1983, and your party had stood for nothing for the last 30 years. including Wings and other closet 'Labour coalition' fluffers: they've long since missed the bus on a Lab-SNP pact - get them hounded.

[vikingTON]

That would be awesome, but I can't see it. Labour would have absolutely no chance of winning support back in England if they agreed to such a thing and really need the Scottish vote to have any chance of an outright majority. We need to accept we're in for a long game here. It will come again, we just need to make sure the economic argument is stronger next time as that really let us down in the last campaign. Those fag packet voters who weren't willing to do their own research (which is obviously their right in a democratic society) need to have it spelled out to them that they'll benefit in an independent Scotland.

Why would it be "awesome"? Just six months ago Scottish voters had the chance to directly determine their constitutional settlement - why on earth would it be "awesome" for them to be waiting on the morsels sent by a UK-wide party to set their agenda? An SNP blocking section in London tied with a pro-indy bloc in Holyrood again from 2016 can extract far more concessions than anything that can be extracted from no-marks like Labour, who are utterly finished in Scotland.

[ayrmad]

What do you base this on?

The national polls have Labour and the Tories neck and neck. The Ashcroft constituency polls, which are far more precise given there sample size in relation to the area polled, are showing Labour doing better in the marginal English seats where the real fight between these two parties is taking place.

6 months ago I was convinced the Tories would get a majority, recently I was far less convinced, now I see a wee snowball starting with the "incumbent swing", the "I could never vote for someone like Milliband" swing and the "oh f**k I'll vote for anyone that stops those nasty Jocks carrying the balance of power" swing, who knows if those 3 will produce enough of a swing for a Tory majority but I'm quite sure the polls will start moving in that direction over the next 6 weeks.

[John Lambies Doos]

That's very naive imo. Devo-Max will never, ever, ever be on the table in a deal with Labour.

They just can't do that, if they do Labour is fucked in England forever, and that's the place they really care about as that's 85% of the UK's population.

Labour will NEVER offer Devo-Max or anything remotely close to it, they simply can't. They will offer something a million miles from Devo-Max and scream from the rooftops about how amazing and massive it is, so we don't see it for the sop it is and ask for more that they can't give.

I think it's really important people understand that, Labour cannot and will not ever offer Devo-Max. But they need you to think you've already got it so you don't keep asking for it as they can't give it to you.

I agree with Fuzzy here. Under the current labour makeup ie its ONE party (Scottish Labour is media spin) they simply cannot offer Devo Max without addressing the West Lothian question.. If they address this through EVEL they will prob never again be able to pass English legislation, which to milliband and co. Is really all that matters.

What would be work is that if an English parliament was formed and WM became the federal parliament.

Hopefully this would be a big step forward for Scottish independence.

The ONLY way this will happen is that if we send down a huge swathe of SNP mps... They are the only chance we have of shaking up the status quo, as all Cameron and Milliband want to do is keep things the way they are.

We might even get the house of lords abolished to!

[LongTimeLurker]

The SNP have ruled out a deal with the Tories (and there's no question that they needed to for short term reasons) but it's the Tories that are much more likely to agree to Devo max. Interesting times ahead if the polling trends hold up through to May.

[jmothecat]

The SNP have ruled out a deal with the Tories (and there's no question that they needed to for short term reasons) but it's the Tories that are much more likely to agree to Devo max. Interesting times ahead if the polling trends hold up through to May.

This. EVEL is something Labour will wish to avoid, and Devo Max or similar will make EVEL all but certain. Tory noises about federalism may be small, but they are present. This can work to the SNP's advantage but it's a delicate balance. I agree that the SNP are right to dismiss any deals with the Tories as it gives them maximum chance at the election, but it's really the Tories that the SNP will want to deal with to realistically get what they want. I'm sure they have a plan (SNP strategy has been fantastic thus far), but I'm unsure what it is.

[FuzzyAffro]

The Tories wouldn't give Devo-Max either, google the comments of Cameron, Davidson and Johnson prior to the referendum. They are enraged we even have a parliament, which they opposed btw, and their very identity is unionism.

They also are aware if we got the oil industry and all associated revenues they're fucked, which is what underpins all of this. Any form of 'Devo-Max' that was ever on the table, and it never would be for reasons already explained, would not include the oil industry and all associated revenues. So wouldn't be Devo-Max anyway.

[Spain]

You're neglecting there's also a rather large EU referendum question between SNP & the Tories too. SNP (wisely) are desperate for us to stay in the EU and would want a caveat on the referendum that all 4 countries would need to vote to leave. The tories can't afford to do that, as they'd upset a large chunk of their core support who they're already battling with UKIP for. There's no real happy medium to that argument between the two.

[jmothecat]

You're neglecting there's also a rather large EU referendum question between SNP & the Tories too. SNP (wisely) are desperate for us to stay in the EU and would want a caveat on the referendum that all 4 countries would need to vote to leave. The tories can't afford to do that, as they'd upset a large chunk of their core support who they're already battling with UKIP for. There's no real happy medium to that argument between the two.

Tbh I think Cameron would welcome an excuse to avoid such a referendum.