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When will indyref2 happen?


Colkitto

Indyref2  

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Just now, tirso said:

what  specificically is it in May's deal that the SNP disagree with.  Apart from it being Brexit at all?

would prefer meat on the bones which could actually change people's opinions.  REally don't think the SNP are taking advantage here as much as they should be.

Eh, how about the ending of free movement? Exit from the single market and customs union? False promises made to the fishing industry? Slower economic growth forecast. A special deal for Northern Ireland that gives them a competitive edge over Scotland by allowing them to remain in the single market while we get dragged out?

The SNP don't just disagree, they're furious and the whole of Scotland should be as well. Because neither the deal or no deal option is good news for Scotlands economy.

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what  specificically is it in May's deal that the SNP disagree with.  Apart from it being Brexit at all?

would prefer meat on the bones which could actually change people's opinions.  REally don't think the SNP are taking advantage here as much as they should be.

A £9 billion shrinkage of the Scottish economy by 2030 is enough of a reason.

 

Another reason is that the deal agrees f**k all except keeping Northern Ireland in the Single Market and ignoring Scotland completely.

 

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Just occurred to me that I want Scotland to get more civilised by getting out of the UK, and the UK to retain some sense of civil responsibility by staying in the EU. I don't see that as a paradox.

Edited by welshbairn
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This economist is not gonnae be invited back by the BBC anytime soon:lol:

https://mobile.twitter.com/zeebeving/status/1068042937760694272/video/1

How did the beeb propaganda filters let that one slip through the net

The Scottish economy contributes £200 billion a year to UK GDP!!

The block grant we get back is something like £90 billion annually.

How come then with 9% of the population then we are assigned 35% of the debt and shown as having this huge deficit.^_^

Creative accounting UK style.

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1 hour ago, git-intae-thum said:

This economist is not gonnae be invited back by the BBC anytime soon:lol:

https://mobile.twitter.com/zeebeving/status/1068042937760694272/video/1

How did the beeb propaganda filters let that one slip through the net

The Scottish economy contributes £200 billion a year to UK GDP!!

The block grant we get back is something like £90 billion annually.

How come then with 9% of the population then we are assigned 35% of the debt and shown as having this huge deficit.^_^

Creative accounting UK style.

Scotland! Too wee!

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8 hours ago, git-intae-thum said:

This economist is not gonnae be invited back by the BBC anytime soon:lol:

https://mobile.twitter.com/zeebeving/status/1068042937760694272/video/1

How did the beeb propaganda filters let that one slip through the net

The Scottish economy contributes £200 billion a year to UK GDP!!

The block grant we get back is something like £90 billion annually.

How come then with 9% of the population then we are assigned 35% of the debt and shown as having this huge deficit.^_^

Creative accounting UK style.

So about 9% of the population is generating around 9% of GDP. Were we not meant to be subsidising England? 

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4 hours ago, AyrExile said:

So about 9% of the population is generating around 9% of GDP. Were we not meant to be subsidising England? 

They're meant to be subsidising us, no?

Maybe I'm missing something but £200bn sounds like a lot of produce for a wee nation of 5m folk? This guy isn't the first economist to spell out the consequences to rUK should Scotland leave and 'take the oil with her'. We have more than just oil too.

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Scotland pretty much has the resources that any country our size would give their left bollock for. Add our financial services and other exports into the equation and we are already a very wealthy nation, independence would amplify that.

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1 hour ago, SweeperDee said:

Scotland pretty much has the resources that any country our size would give their left bollock for. Add our financial services and other exports into the equation and we are already a very wealthy nation, independence would amplify that.

Iceland an example...

Now 100 yrs old and doing fairly well IIRC w/o oil, whisky or our tourism amongst other assets. Jailed those crooked bankers too. We gave them knighthoods...

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17269020.iceland-at-100-the-benefits-of-independence/

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After brexit day we have a transition period to 2020 correct?

So there will be a ~1 year of brexit reality before next SG elections, and another ~1 year before next UKG elections.

If I was a tory wanting to kill independence I would be borrowing huge amounts to make that 2020-2021 period not feel so bad to the ordinary punter.

So I'd say indyref2 is probably at least 2 years off and depends on the above failing and SNP majority post 2021

Agreed, Sturgeon has no need to rush into a 2nd Ref. She quietly knows that more Scots voted to leave the EU in 2016 than supported the SNP in the GE a year later. She can wait until the effects of Brexit start to kick in then pick up the converts, disgruntled with WM to secure the necessary majority. Its still a gamble, but the writings on the wall, the Tory hardliners just don’t see it and will have only themselves to blame.
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2 hours ago, NotThePars said:

I don’t like the oil argument given that we should be moving away from any reliance on it. Isn’t our renewables potential meant to be really good?

Considering all it does is pish it down and blow a gale in Scotland, we're absolutely sorted for water generated power and wind energy, 

https://www.scottishrenewables.com/sectors/renewables-in-numbers/

I'd really like Scotland to do more and more tidal energy. 

Edited by Comrie
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1 hour ago, RedRob72 said:


Agreed, Sturgeon has no need to rush into a 2nd Ref. She quietly knows that more Scots voted to leave the EU in 2016 than supported the SNP in the GE a year later. She can wait until the effects of Brexit start to kick in then pick up the converts, disgruntled with WM to secure the necessary majority. Its still a gamble, but the writings on the wall, the Tory hardliners just don’t see it and will have only themselves to blame.

What pish is this?

Provide the supporting evidence please.

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6 hours ago, NotThePars said:

I don’t like the oil argument given that we should be moving away from any reliance on it. Isn’t our renewables potential meant to be really good?

Yes it is but the route to market has been roadblocked by May in favour of nuclear at twice the price

 

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12 hours ago, Comrie said:

Considering all it does is pish it down and blow a gale in Scotland, we're absolutely sorted for water generated power and wind energy, 

https://www.scottishrenewables.com/sectors/renewables-in-numbers/

I'd really like Scotland to do more and more tidal energy. 

Not an area that I have much knowledge of but logic would suggest that tidal would be more consistent than the other renewable sources.

 

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8 hours ago, RedRob72 said:

Figures kindly provided in the link above, over 40,000 votes. So more than the size of Stirling? Surprised me too tbh.

More importantly. How many of them would still vote leave?

You don't hear many owning up to it these days.

There may be a "shy leave" effect going on of course..........like "shy tory" or........"shy no" 

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