ScotSquid Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 39 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said: I know you're taking the piss, but do people seriously agitating for early 2018 really not think it's far too soon? Call it when the polls start to shift significantly as Brexit details become clearer; if you rush in and lose it's done for decades. It's posturing. An attempt to put pressure on May. Who predictably has reminded the SNP today about the prospect of an Indyref being blocked by WM. Similar to Sturgeon, of course not actually saying that this would happen. It's all brinksmanship. the SNP know it's far too early for another ref but can't say that. They want to be talked down from the ledge. They won't jump 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 7 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said: Quite, so it's better to remain in than leave and try to get back in. If Scotland wished to remain part of the EU then it would definitely be better to remain in rather than have to rejoin. I cannot see how that would be possible without treaty changes that would still require the consent of the other members. The idea that Scotland could be the successor state after voting for independence is a non-starter as there is no way that the other treaty based organisations that the UK is a member of would support this. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 1 hour ago, Dunning1874 said: I know you're taking the piss, but do people seriously agitating for early 2018 really not think it's far too soon? Call it when the polls start to shift significantly as Brexit details become clearer; if you rush in and lose it's done for decades. I am slightly. It's not so much I would be agitating for it no matter what but it's a guess based on this time next year knowing in more detail what Brexit looks like, based on a March triggering of Art50, and needing to have this concluded whilst still in EU. For myself I'm no longer in the "call it when we can win it" camp. If Scotland is removed from the EU and single market against the will of the Scottish people then the SNP have a mandate to call a referendum and have an obligation to call one. If that's a loss and it's off the cards for 20 years so be it but you don't get anywhere in life waiting for the perfect conditions to do things. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mizfit Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 If Scotland votes Yes, May would be a laughing stock, the one that pushed Scotland away from the union to appease the UKIP voters of England. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 If Scotland votes Yes, May would be a laughing stock, the one that pushed Scotland away from the union to appease the UKIP voters of England. And the United Kingdom Independence Party would have brought about not the independence but the the end of the United Kingdom 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 29 minutes ago, strichener said: If Scotland wished to remain part of the EU then it would definitely be better to remain in rather than have to rejoin. I cannot see how that would be possible without treaty changes that would still require the consent of the other members. The idea that Scotland could be the successor state after voting for independence is a non-starter as there is no way that the other treaty based organisations that the UK is a member of would support this. How the EU wants to treat the situation is up to the EU. As far as the EU is concerned Scotland's status would be unchanged so I would expect, for pragmatic reasons alone, the EU wouldn't object to a legally independent Scotland remaining a member. How other organisations would react is up to them. Although I would point out that it took Slovakia just 18 days to join the UN after independence from Czechoslovakia. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 1 minute ago, Baxter Parp said: How the EU wants to treat the situation is up to the EU. As far as the EU is concerned Scotland's status would be unchanged so I would expect, for pragmatic reasons alone, the EU wouldn't object to a legally independent Scotland remaining a member. How other organisations would react is up to them. Although I would point out that it took Slovakia just 18 days to join the UN after independence from Czechoslovakia. Scotland's status cannot remain unchanged. Representation would have to change, contributions would have to change, Scottish laws would have to change. It is simplistic to state that we can just carry on regardless. The breakup of Czechoslovakia did not have either country claiming to be the sole successor state. I cannot see this being the case regarding the UK. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewBlue Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 15 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said: How the EU wants to treat the situation is up to the EU. As far as the EU is concerned Scotland's status would be unchanged so I would expect, for pragmatic reasons alone, the EU wouldn't object to a legally independent Scotland remaining a member. How other organisations would react is up to them. Although I would point out that it took Slovakia just 18 days to join the UN after independence from Czechoslovakia. I know Spain has already said it would object to any moves to allow an independent Scotland join the EU due to it's own political situation. I am sure other countries in the EU may take the same view if they have regions looking for autonomy, and treaty changes require all EU members to support them in order to pass. It may be posturing, and the Brexit situation makes it different to other nations, but I think it makes it difficult to predict exactly what our relationship with the EU would be if we were to become independent so I don't think either side of the debate can make any promises or predictions. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
effeffsee_the2nd Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 why the love for the eu anyway? f**k them independence should mean independence. from london AND brussels. theres plenty of countries our size around the world we'd hardly be in uncharted waters 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 I know Spain has already said it would object to any moves to allow an independent Scotland join the EU due to it's own political situation. I am sure other countries in the EU may take the same view if they have regions looking for autonomy, and treaty changes require all EU members to support them in order to pass. It may be posturing, and the Brexit situation makes it different to other nations, but I think it makes it difficult to predict exactly what our relationship with the EU would be if we were to become independent so I don't think either side of the debate can make any promises or predictions. Of course all this was said before brexit 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meth Damon Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewBlue Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 6 minutes ago, doulikefish said: Of course all this was said before brexit After http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/684593/Brexit-Nicola-Sturgeon-keep-Scotland-in-EU-France-Spain Not a great source though but first one I found. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Stubbs Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 Mostly conducted before Tory Conference. Not learning anything knew there. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 5 minutes ago, iknowwheremaddieis said: So 45/55 minus DKs even with the leading question devised by the Herald. Not bad. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 After http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/684593/Brexit-Nicola-Sturgeon-keep-Scotland-in-EU-France-Spain Not a great source though but first one I found. Doesnt say anything about denying an iscot entry,just the usual express waffle and this will be the worst winter in 100 years probably further down the page 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScotSquid Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 57 minutes ago, invergowrie arab said: I am slightly. It's not so much I would be agitating for it no matter what but it's a guess based on this time next year knowing in more detail what Brexit looks like, based on a March triggering of Art50, and needing to have this concluded whilst still in EU. For myself I'm no longer in the "call it when we can win it" camp. If Scotland is removed from the EU and single market against the will of the Scottish people then the SNP have a mandate to call a referendum and have an obligation to call one. If that's a loss and it's off the cards for 20 years so be it but you don't get anywhere in life waiting for the perfect conditions to do things. The problem here of course is that Remain voters didn't do so on the basis that the EU was more important than the UK. A substantial number of 'Remain voters will vote No in any Scottish indyref. For many of the same reasons we voted Remain ironically. The internal UK market is much more important to Scotland economically than the EU market. This is why the SNP don't actually want an Indyref vote . I see today they have tried laughably to pretend they can have it both ways and be in the EU whilst retaining the UK single market. They are in a mess of an economic position here. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 30 minutes ago, strichener said: Scotland's status cannot remain unchanged. Representation would have to change, contributions would have to change, Scottish laws would have to change. It is simplistic to state that we can just carry on regardless. The breakup of Czechoslovakia did not have either country claiming to be the sole successor state. I cannot see this being the case regarding the UK. Sure circumstances would change but it doesn't mean we would have to lose membership. The UK wants to leave and therefore cannot possibly be the successor to the EU treaties. Duh. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 22 minutes ago, NewBlue said: I know Spain has already said it would object to any moves to allow an independent Scotland join the EU due to it's own political situation. No, they've objected to any special deals saying in effect that if the UK goes then so does Scotland. They're on record as saying they wouldn't object to a legally independent Scotland being part of the EU. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 19 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said: why the love for the eu anyway? f**k them independence should mean independence. from london AND brussels. theres plenty of countries our size around the world we'd hardly be in uncharted waters Yeah? Which ones are in no trade organisations whatsoever? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewBlue Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 (edited) 16 minutes ago, doulikefish said: Doesnt say anything about denying an iscot entry,just the usual express waffle and this will be the worst winter in 100 years probably further down the page Well here are some other sources for you then, all reporting the same comments: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/29/nicola-sturgeons-hopes-of-keeping-scotland-in-eu-dashed-by-spani/ http://www.scotsman.com/news/spanish-prime-minister-says-spain-will-block-scots-eu-deal-1-4164935 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36656980 I never said they would stop us joining just that it is hard to predict exactly what our position will be post Brexit and that I think it is unlikely we would be automatically allowed to 'stay on as member' due to opposition from existing members, therefore I think that both sides of the debate should stop throwing around claims about EU membership. After all we saw how that one went in the IndyRef debate with a Yes vote painted as a vote to leave the EU I found this article which is actually quite a good read and seems fairly neutral: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/07/04/brexit-and-spain-would-the-spanish-government-really-block-scotlands-eu-membership/ eta sorry it looks like I did say they would stop us joining I meant what I wrote above, object to use having automatic membership or staying on. Edited October 14, 2016 by NewBlue 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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