Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Ross.]

13 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Does anyone consistently make accurate GDP predictions? 

I'm not sure there is anyone, anywhere in finance who is consistently accurate. Generally everyone, individuals and institutions, are consistently wrong by varying degrees. What does happen from time to time is than an outlier occurs and someone predicts 2008 or a similar black swan event, and they become very famous(and rich...) for it. What most people tend not to realise is that those people were very wrong, very consistently before finally getting it right.

Edited November 29, 2018 by Ross.

[Suspect Device]

19 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

That you have a job.

 

It's actually something mental like you are employed for at least one hour in a 2 week period.

I read that on a BBC report last week. Can't remember the exact figures but you can google it.

 

Edit: 

Quote

3. Employment

The number of people in employment in the UK is measured by the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and consists of people aged 16 and over who did one hour or more of paid work per week (as an employee or self-employed), those who had a job that they were temporarily away from, those on government-supported training and employment programmes, and those doing unpaid family work. Employment levels and rates are published each month in the labour market statistical bulletin.

Employment is a different, but similar, concept to jobs. Employment is a measure of people, and a person with more than one job would therefore be counted once in the employment estimates.

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/methodologies/aguidetolabourmarketstatistics#employment

 

Edited November 29, 2018 by Suspect Device

[Gaz]

9 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

It's actually something mental like you are employed for at least one hour in a 2 week period.

Was just about to say this. I heard this on Five Live last week. Crazy stuff.

[welshbairn]

15 minutes ago, Ross. said:

I'm not sure there is anyone, anywhere in finance who is consistently accurate. Generally everyone, individuals and institutions, are consistently wrong by varying degrees. What does happen from time to time is than an outlier occurs and someone predicts 2008 or a similar black swan event, and they become very famous(and rich...) for it. What most people tend not to realise is that those people were wrong very often and very consistently before finally getting it right.

Larry Kudlow, Trump's Economic Advisor in February 2008.

Quote

But no matter what the signal was today, I’m going to bet that the economy will be rebounding sometime this summer, if not sooner. We are in a slow patch. That’s all. It’s nothing to get up in arms about. Meanwhile, outside of financials, profits are up, not down. So let’s wait and see.

 https://www.nationalreview.com/kudlows-money-politics/lay-panic-button-larry-kudlow/

July 2008

Quote

Media reports painted a pessimistic picture of today’s release on existing home sales, which fell 15 percent from a year ago and recorded higher inventories. But inside the report was an awful lot of very good new news, which appear to be pointing to a bottom in the housing problem; in fact, maybe the tiniest beginnings of a recovery.

https://www.cnbc.com/id/25835877

Trump’s New Economic Adviser Lawrence Kudlow Has Been Wrong About Everything for Decades

 

Edited November 29, 2018 by welshbairn

[Suspect Device]

I can confidently predict that the UK will be in recession some time in the future.

I'm a genius.

[Granny Danger]

5 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

I can confidently predict that the UK will be in recession some time in the future.

I'm a genius.

One of the above statements is correct.

 

 

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, Big Rider said:

The point is that they were scunnered that the government had, in their eyes, been treated badly by the EU so we should continue to flounce off despite the consequences.

No, the point is that a few folk offering a view in front of a TV camera is no indication of national opinion and of how much, if any, that opinion has changed since the Brexit vote.

The media, in particular television, are more interested in presentation than objective journalism.  Every time they do one of these vox pop pieces it should come with a disclaimer.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

The two stupidest people alive have just been interviewed on the BBC news channel

Too many foreigners! 

[Granny Danger]

May wants a Brexit debate with Corbyn on BBC.  He wants the ITV one as the proposed BBC one clashes with “I’m a Celebrity”!

Yes, seriously!!!

Scotland’s voice will not be heard.

Fucking stitch up.

 

[Detournement]

ITV have offered to put the debate on before The I'm A Celeb final.

The BBC originally offered a weeknight and changed to going up against the I'm A Celeb final. Clearly the Tories in No.10/BBC don't want the IAC demographic seeing Corbyn unfiltered.

[GiGi]

Corbyn has absolutely f**k all to debate with her other than to tell her that her brexit deal is shite. We all understand that part already. 

He'd have to climb down off his ivory fence to pick brexit or remain and either back a people's vote with remain as option or offer a solution to the Irish border if he wants to crack on to appease the gammons. 

Since May and Corbyn are both shitebags they won't want Sturgeon anywhere near it. She'd have enough ammunition to dish out about 3 hours of telts uninterrupted.

[Detournement]

https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/30/the-macroeconomics-of-brexit-motivated-reasoning/

Paul Krugman on Brexit economic forecasting.

[Miguel Sanchez]

"There should be a people's vote"

"The leaders of the two biggest political parties can't decide when to go on TV because of reality programmes taking too much of the public's attention"

What a fucking country.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

47 minutes ago, Miguel Sanchez said:

The two stupidest people alive have just been interviewed on the BBC news channel

Too many foreigners! 

Magee and Gunther?

[Big Rider]

1 hour ago, Granny Danger said:

No, the point is that a few folk offering a view in front of a TV camera is no indication of national opinion and of how much, if any, that opinion has changed since the Brexit vote.

The media, in particular television, are more interested in presentation than objective journalism.  Every time they do one of these vox pop pieces it should come with a disclaimer.

 

I understand what you are saying however my point was on a vox pop they did in Stoke not the rest of the UK.

They were asking if anyone has changed their mind and the chairwoman of Stoke FC made the same point as a guy who said he had moved from Remain to Leave, i.e. the EU have been nasty therefore we are off in a huff.

This was a new narrative to me and came away from the usual “take back control” and “open new markets in Micronesia” stuff from the leavers. I’d be happy to conclude that the 70% leave vote in Stoke will be pretty much unchanged if “the EU is nasty to us” is a new reason to give for having voted leave.

[zidane's child]

I get the impression that there is a tremendous amount of self righteousness from Leave voters, who refuse to change their mind.

The BoE and Government could release all the forecasts they wanted showing how bad things may be, but these people are happy to go through it all just to get out of the EU at any cost.

These are also the people who claim that May was being bullied by the EU in the negotiations. I seem to remember a lot of our politicians claiming that negotiating a free trade deal was "the easiest in history". Is this not undermining the EU too and belittling them? I didn't see the EU moaning about this.

Edited November 29, 2018 by zidane's child

[Guest]

1 minute ago, zidane's child said:

I get the impression that there is a tremendous amount of self righteousness from Leave voters, who refuse to change their mind.

The BoE and Government could release all the forecasts they wanted showing how bad things may be, but these people are happy to go through it all just o get out of the EU.

These are also the people who claim that May was being bullied by the EU in the negotiations. I seem to remember a lot of our politicians claiming that negotiating a free trade deal was "the easiest in history". Is this not undermining the EU too and belittling them? I didn't see the EU moaning about this.

There will be lots of different "types" though within these leave voters.

You'll have people who will feel failed by the system, they may be on low wages and may feel they're being dealt a harsh time with regards their place in society, so when these types read about wealth etc, it means nothing to them and the way they'll see it is that they've got very little to lose.

You'll also have your stubborn older generation unionist types who hark back to a time that never really existed when "Britain stood proud in this world".

We've also got the half witted racists who "hate the EU", they can't really answer why but they just do because they're "foreign" and "stealing our jobs" and telling us "what shape our fruit should be", etc, etc, etc.

It should also be noted that there's a fair share of morons on the remain side just the same, but here lies the problem, there's no party lines, there's no political ideology in play, and there's nobody on either side who has a credible plan or has done any sort of credible research and that's what makes this whole affair such a bloody shambles..............

[williemillersmoustache]

Always liked Glasgow and everything about it really. Top lads.

[Granny Danger]

40 minutes ago, Big Rider said:

I understand what you are saying however my point was on a vox pop they did in Stoke not the rest of the UK.

They were asking if anyone has changed their mind and the chairwoman of Stoke FC made the same point as a guy who said he had moved from Remain to Leave, i.e. the EU have been nasty therefore we are off in a huff.

This was a new narrative to me and came away from the usual “take back control” and “open new markets in Micronesia” stuff from the leavers. I’d be happy to conclude that the 70% leave vote in Stoke will be pretty much unchanged if “the EU is nasty to us” is a new reason to give for having voted leave.

I accept that however we don’t know if these folk are in any way representative.  We also have to accept that they might have interviewed 30 folk and decided to broadcast half a dozen because it was all the same narrative and it was a different/fresh angle they could include in their report.  We will never know.

I hope common sense prevails but as @zidane's child says there are folk who seem self-righteously intransigent.

[Distant Doonhamer]

1 hour ago, Granny Danger said:

May wants a Brexit debate with Corbyn on BBC.  He wants the ITV one as the proposed BBC one clashes with “I’m a Celebrity”!

Yes, seriously!!!

Scotland’s voice will not be heard.

Fucking stitch up.

 

Says it all really. Corbyn must be worried he`d actually have to give an opinion TBF though.

You have to ask what it is May and Corbyn would actually debate. Corbyn saying endlessy that it`s a shite deal and May endlessly replying that it`s the only deal. Riveting stuff.

 

 

Edited November 29, 2018 by Distant Doonhamer