Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[Salt n Vinegar]

Just now, Pato said:

Why? You literally just acknowledged FPTP distorts the actual support of parties.

With 70 out of 73? I suppose it is possible that each of the 70 seats won might have had a tiny FPTP majority vote, but I think that's stretching it.  It is certainly the case that our present PR system makes it hard to sort out what folk really want.  You only have to look at the interminable debates about where independence supporting folk should put their List vote in many regions to see the issues. It's why I find elections so fascinating.  Things will always be interesting as long as we don't know if people are actually voting for a party or to stop another one. 

My hope is for an absolutely huge turnout as that at least partly removes one of the debating points about 'what the people think and want'.  If there is a healthy majority for pro-independence parties in seats (and votes?) it will be fascinating to hear Dross, Sarwar and Rennie tell the electorate that they are right and the electorate are wrong. 

 

[Colkitto]

Ipsos Mori poll due out today. This should be the last poll released before the election tomorrow

[Suspect Device]

 

 

 

They're coming thick and fast.

 

Edited May 5, 2021 by Suspect Device

[Salt n Vinegar]

Sky have just reported on 3 polls... 2 showing an SNP majority, giving them 68 seats (The Herald) or 66 seats (The Courier), and another showing the worse SNP result since 2007 with only 59 seats (The Scotsman) ... can't say it adds much to the credibility of the polling processes! 

[John Lambies Doos]

Sky have just reported on 3 polls... 2 showing an SNP majority, giving them 68 seats (The Herald) or 66 seats (The Courier), and another showing the worse SNP result since 2007 with only 59 seats (The Scotsman) ... can't say it adds much to the credibility of the polling processes! 

The Scotsman [emoji1787][emoji1787][emoji1787][emoji1787]

[scottsdad]

50 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

 

 

 

They're coming thick and fast.

 

Interesting. Who will be leader of the opposition - Sarwar or Ross? And what happens if there is a tie between Labour and the Tories?

[Florentine_Pogen]

The Scotsman [emoji1787][emoji1787][emoji1787][emoji1787]

I'd genuinely forgotten that it used to be a pretty good read, although I'm going back to the days of Jim Naughtie. (Aye, ah'm auld).
It's clickbait central these days.

[Kyle]

It's going to be a close run thing tomorrow by the looks of things. Exciting stuff!

[invergowrie arab]

22 minutes ago, scottsdad said:

Interesting. Who will be leader of the opposition - Sarwar or Ross? And what happens if there is a tie between Labour and the Tories?

There's no leader of the opposition in the Scottish Parliament 

[renton]

So Ipsos and YG replicating the decrease in SNP constituency vote seen by ComRes. Meanwhile PB and BMG seeing an increase in SNP constituency. Survation showed a decrease but only the slight 1 point job.

However,  both Ipsos and YG starting from  much higher baseline so only ComRes has SNP dipping below 2016vat this point. Indeed, Ipsos and YG both giving an SNP only majority.

 

Edited May 5, 2021 by renton

[vikingTON]

18 minutes ago, Kyle said:

It's going to be a close run thing tomorrow by the looks of things. Exciting stuff!

Close run for what exactly? The SNP are now trying to spin that Sturgeon will somehow not be First Minister unless everyone gormlessly hands them their second vote, which is absolutely laughable. They haven't had a majority since 2016 and do not need one now to form another government. 

The onus is on them to do the heavy lifting in the constituencies that they lost to get a majority but there is very little at stake otherwise. There will be an SNP government and there will be majority support in Holyrood for independence. 

Edited May 5, 2021 by vikingTON

[Lex]

If we are looking at the collected regional list votes of the pro-union parties, isn't it fair to add the Greens'150,426 to the pro-indy total? 

Why do Indy supporters get so touchy when it’s pointed out that the majority of voters in Scotland have always voted for pro union parties?
In 2016 (when it was closest) the constituency vote was:
1,059,898 SNP
13,172 Green
1,073,070 total
501k Tory
514k Labour
178k Lib Dem
1,193,000 total.
List:
953,587 SNP
150,426 Green
Solidarity / Rise 25,244
1,129,257 total
Tory 524,222
Labour 435,919
LD 119,284
UKIP 46,426
Scottish Christian / A Better Britain 14,139
1,139,990 total
I believe most of the other smaller parties (women’s equality, communist, animal welfare etc) are also pro union but won’t count them as not sure. Despite this the SNP will likely win a majority tomorrow because they’ve pretty much United the separatist vote, whereas the union vote is split three ways.
Anyway:

[Kyle]

1 minute ago, virginton said:

Close run for what exactly? The SNP are now trying to spin that Sturgeon will somehow not be First Minister unless everyone gormlessly hands them their second vote, which is absolutely laughable. They haven't had a majority since 2016 and do not need one now to form another government. 

The onus is on them to do the heavy lifting in the constituencies that they lost to get a majority but there is very little at stake otherwise. There will be an SNP government and there will be majority support in Holyrood for independence. 

Pretty obvious what I meant I think but pretty close run thing to whether there will be an SNP majority or not. I'm not planning on voting SNP on the list - I didn't at the last election either - and understand the benefits of trying to maximise the vote for yes parties, like unionist did much more effectively than us in 2016. 

 

 

[Melanius Mullarkey]

Didn't realise the Indy Ref was taking place tomorrow.

Huge if true tbqh.

[renton]

Constituency only:

 

ComRes showing an arguably more steady SNP vote until the last month or so, then it's fallen of a cliff. Whereas most of the others seem to have levelled off in that time.

Edited May 5, 2021 by renton

[renton]

7 minutes ago, Lex said:

 

Why do Indy supporters get so touchy when it’s pointed out that the majority of voters in Scotland have always voted for pro union parties?
In 2016 (when it was closest) the constituency vote was:
1,059,898 SNP
13,172 Green
1,073,070 total
501k Tory
514k Labour
178k Lib Dem
1,193,000 total.
List:
953,587 SNP
150,426 Green
Solidarity / Rise 25,244
1,129,257 total
Tory 524,222
Labour 435,919
LD 119,284
UKIP 46,426
Scottish Christian / A Better Britain 14,139
1,139,990 total
I believe most of the other smaller parties (women’s equality, communist, animal welfare etc) are also pro union but won’t count them as not sure. Despite this the SNP will likely win a majority tomorrow because they’ve pretty much United the separatist vote, whereas the union vote is split three ways.
Anyway:

 

On the same day Ipsos Mori has Indy at 50/50

[betting competition]

I just hope the polling companies make a better job than they did in 2016 when the underestimated the Tories and overestimated the SNP and Greens. 

Just had a look at the today polls and 3 of them are so different! 

[DAFC.]

Said it earlier on in the thread but you could toss a coin on whether they'll get a majority or not. Will probably boil down to how good the turnout is mixed with the tactical voting in constituencies. If the pro-Indy electorate are out in their numbers, which seems a given judging social media, then the SNP could get a majority through the constituency vote alone, and anything on the list would be a bonus. Shame the result will be dragged out as this is the most interesting election since GE 2015 IMO. 

I really want them to get 65 MSPs as the meltdown would be absolutely glorious. 

[John Lambies Doos]

Close run for what exactly? The SNP are now trying to spin that Sturgeon will somehow not be First Minister unless everyone gormlessly hands them their second vote, which is absolutely laughable.

Stop making stuff up. Your obsessed about this list vote. Any sane minded person gives it to the Greens but for obvious reasons this cannot be publicly endorsed by SNP.

Yes it will be a close run thing.

[Baxter Parp]

Watching the news and Politics Live this morning and afternoon, every report on Scotland giving the impression the only issue is if the SNP can get a majority and gain a mandate. Nary a mention of a pro-independence majority, super or otherwise. Predictable.