DeeTillEhDeh Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Checked out the latest odds again: Sir Keir Starmer - 5/6 (out from 4/5)Rebecca Long-Bailey - 11/4 (in from 4/1)Lisa Nandy - 7/1 (in from 10/1)Jess Phillips - 14/1 (out from 12/1)Clive Lewis - 50/1 (out from 33/1)Emily Thornberry - 100/1 (out from 50/1) Nandy definitely the biggest mover in the markets. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrewDon Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 hour ago, welshbairn said: Lisa Nandy stormed the hustings tonight, according to the Guardian anyway. Still a struggle for her to get the minimum 21 MP nominations though apparently while unbelievably Jess Phillips has her's in the bag!?! https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/01/labour-leadership-lisa-nandy-road-21-nominations I'd imagine Phillips is more likely to attract support from unreconstructed New Labour types in the PLP, the sort who mostly backed Liz Kendall in 2015, while Nandy will be in direct competition with Starmer for the nominations she needs. Some MPs will probably be more reluctant to back an outsider too, especially if they think Starmer is the only candidate with a decent chance of beating Long-Bailey or if they want to position themselves for a job if he wins. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Nandy is the only one who ticks the three main boxes: distant from Corbyn, northerner and distant from the second referendum campaign. If she makes the ballot she almost certainly has my vote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bully Wee Villa Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I hope we get a televised debate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrewDon Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I don't think being a northerner - or not - should be an important consideration, in all honesty. Blyth Valley, Burnley and Redcar, for example, all just voted for an Eton-educated, ex-Bullingdon Club southerner as PM. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 10 hours ago, MixuFixit said: Not saying the right wouldn't exist, just that smaller democracies are more responsive to what the people want. What structures in particular are you thinking about, that couldn't just be changed by a new government? If the SNP come in and immediately rack up debt in a foreign currency (which is in the GC) then any aspirations of genuine independence are dead in arrival. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BawWatchin Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 15 minutes ago, Detournement said: If the SNP come in and immediately rack up debt in a foreign currency (which is in the GC) then any aspirations of genuine independence are dead in arrival. How would they rack up debt in a foreign currency? It wouldn't be foreign, it would be our own currency. Even if they did rack up debt, how would it be any worse than the debt that is racked up on our behalf already and spent beyond our control? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, BawWatchin said: How would they rack up debt in a foreign currency? It wouldn't be foreign, it would be our own currency. Even if they did rack up debt, how would it be any worse than the debt that is racked up on our behalf already and spent beyond our control? GBP wouldn't be our currency. It will always belong to the UK. If you can't understand why debt in a foreign denominated currency is worse than a debt in a currency you control then there is no point in discussing this. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BawWatchin Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Detournement said: GBP wouldn't be our currency. It will always belong to the UK. If you can't understand why debt in a foreign denominated currency is worse than a debt in a currency you control then there is no point in discussing this. You do realize that the very foundations that form currency as the world knows it today originated from Scotland? I think we'll be ok. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 20 minutes ago, MixuFixit said: Why? Because once a country gets into debt in a foreign currency it's near impossible to get out of debt. Scotland like most countries runs a structural deficit, with foreign debt this would inevitably mean selling off assets to raise funds, devaluing wages and reducing consumption. We would get the IMF Latin American treatment. People seem to think that it can't happen here because we are majority white and speak English but it can happen as easily as it did in Greece. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Londonwell Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 The best part was when H_B said he voted for Independence last time. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I voted Yes in 2014 . . . 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Margaret Hodge supporting Phillips. All you need to know. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inanimate Carbon Rod Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Ian Murray talking about listening to ‘the people’ whilst also saying no to indy ref 2, clearly hasnt decided which ‘people’ are worth listening to. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 2 hours ago, MixuFixit said: Why is it impossible to get rid of foreign currency debt? Because it requires running a surplus and that wrecks the economy unless you have massive natural resources disproportionate to your population, are a tax haven or at the top of a rigged economic system like Germany. The UK borrows at effectively no cost because it issues the currency. Scotland would have far higher borrowing costs combined with a structural deficit and a negative current account balance. That inevitably means continual neoliberal restructures or default. That's just the national debt side. Having all corporate and household debt in a foreign currency would also pose huge problems. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 57 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: Margaret Hodge supporting Phillips. All you need to know. Phillips is only in it to throw shit at RLB. She'll probably drop out and back Starmer. Even Jess isn't thick enough to think members are going to vote for a Sun columnist. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, MixuFixit said: Why does it require running a surplus? As the terms of the borrowing? I've heard about that for places like Jamaica but is that universal? Assuming Scotland borrows from rUK is it definite that the surplus rule would apply? Because you can't keep spending more than your tax take while also paying down the debt (or even servicing it) unless you issue the currency. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrewDon Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 (edited) Barry Gardiner has entered the race. Arguably the only true Blairite standing. I see Unison have endorsed Starmer over Long-Bailey, too. They backed Corbyn in 2015. Edited January 8, 2020 by DrewDon 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 18 minutes ago, Detournement said: Because you can't keep spending more than your tax take while also paying down the debt (or even servicing it) unless you issue the currency. How would we and the markets value a Scottish currency on Day One of independence unless we link it to the pound, the Euro or a basket of currencies? I presume you wouldn't want to fix it on the oil price? Or let it float straight away, making trade incredibly risky at least in the short term? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, welshbairn said: How would we and the markets value a Scottish currency on Day One of independence unless we link it to the pound, the Euro or a basket of currencies? I presume you wouldn't want to fix it on the oil price? Or let it float straight away, making trade incredibly risky at least in the short term? The sensible thing to do is let it float from 1:1 with GBP. Trying to defend a currency is what fucked the UK in the 70s and the early 90s. If it devalues it means that is either an accurate reflection of your economy or you gain the benefit of an undervalued currency for a while. This obviously only works if you convert all private debt to the new currency. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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