Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Michael W]

3 minutes ago, renton said:

How about permanent social bubbles? A fixed combination of households designed to prevent too much mixing between people once they allow social interactions indoors again. Not sure how you police that, right enough.

Try and limit people to one hospitality venue per outing? Again, probably more trouble than it's worth...

Too hard to police just about sums the restrictions up, to be honest. You're essentially policing what was ordinarily everyday regular behaviour and humans have just about complete autonomy in meeting their mates, visiting a relative or whatever if they want to. You'd have to be quite unlucky to get caught doing this, albeit you might get grassed up by a neighbour. From this point of view, I do feel sorry for the government as it's on a hiding to nothing. 

However this is exactly why it's key for Governments to be winning trust so people will abide by them, even though they think the restrictions are shit. Lose that trust and you're struggling to win it back. 

Instead we are treated like children and have restrictions hinted at us for days before they are finally implemented. Just be honest with us about what you're doing and why, and stop the hints - we all know they're coming and if there is a genuine problem it isn't going to get better in the four days the new restrictions are dangled over us before introduction. There is no engagement at all and even the non-cabinet politicians have been sidetracked as well. 

 

[renton]

3 minutes ago, Squirrelhumper said:

Many of their parents have positive cases?

How many teachers?

Impossible to tell from the Scottish Government dash board.

Looking through the literature of what is an admittedly limited data set, it appears that children as index cases are quite rare. The PHE study based on English schools that did reopen in June suggested 50% of all school linked cases were staff infecting other staff, and another 25% of staff infecting kids, so 75% total of staff passing it on. 23% were from kids infecting adults, although the age of the kids doing the infecting are not mentioned and only 2% from students passing it to other students, an important metric in the ability of classrooms to form hubs of community transmission to other households.

The Dutch study on the previous page, again operating under more constrained environments still suggested a very small percentage of people who's index case was someone under 18.

The thing is, there really isn't a great data set, and no one has the spare capacity to just go and take swabs of a big enough sample of schools to see how well it's circulating around those places.

However, it'd surely be apparent in Track and Trace whether schools were being easily linked. Hell, even if it was all from asymptomatic children then T&T would have a bunch of unrelated, untraceable cases in a local vicinity. You could start to see the shape or the infection by the contrast of infected parents vs no discernable traceable line of infection from other sources.

[renton]

https://www.rcpch.ac.uk/resources/covid-19-research-evidence-summaries

Pretty decent summary of the studies done to date on child transmission.

Quote

The importance of children in transmitting the virus is difficult to establish, particularly because of the number of asymptomatic cases,46 47 but there is some evidence that their role in transmitting the virus is limited and older ‘index case’ age has been associated with an increased rate of secondary infections.26 48 Precise details regarding paediatric transmission cannot be confirmed without analysis of widespread sero-surveillance, but trends are emerging. Studies of multiple family clusters have revealed children were unlikely to be the index case, in Guangzhou, China, Israel and other countries.37 49 50 51 52 53 54 A SARS-CoV-2 positive child in a cluster in the French Alps did not transmit the virus to anyone else, despite exposure to more than 100 people.55 

In the Netherlands, separate data from primary care and household studies suggests SARS-CoV-2 is mainly spread between adults and from adult family members to children, this is supported by a similar Greek study.15 27 

An epidemiological study where 1155 contacts of six COVID-19 positive cases in an Irish school were screened, there was no evidence of secondary transmission of COVID-19 from children to other children or adults, with the findings mirrored in a study from Singapore.56 57 

However, viable SARS-CoV-2 virus has been isolated from symptomatic children with COVID-1958 and there is some evidence of transmission from asymptomatic children to others.13 37 Analysis of a large outbreak of COVID-19 disease in a summer camp was unable to differentiate between transmission from adults to children and between children themselves, but up to 50% of exposed children contracted the virus.59 

It is likely that multiple chains of contact account for the high infection rates and supports the notion of limiting contact outside classrooms and having “bubbles” for schools, to reduce the exposure of individuals to the virus. This is supported by an Israeli study into a secondary school outbreak of two separate cases of COVID-19 in students, 13.2% of students and 16.6% of staff subsequently tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Untangling the modes of transmission (increased community spread due to loosening of lockdown restrictions vs school contact) was not possible but avoiding poorly ventilated closed spaces, crowded areas and close-contact settings was recommended.60 

An Australian study in secondary schools shows a low rate of child to child transmission (0.3-1.2%), with adult to child (1.5%) and adult to adult (4.4%) transmission being more common.61 Low community prevalence levels in combination with effective contact tracing enabled a rapid response, which may explain why the levels of onward infection appear to be much lower in this study.

Public Health England collected data on transmission related to school settings during June 2020, when a limited number of school years were invited to return to school. Nationally there were 198 confirmed cases related to educational settings and 1.6 million (mainly primary school aged) children were reported to have returned to school. When the index case was a child the maximum number of secondary cases was two, compared to nine when the index case was a staff member. When outbreaks were reported this was significantly associated with increased rates of regional prevalence.62 Overall this is very reassuring for children returning to school but ongoing surveillance as class sizes increase and all year groups attend schools will be needed

 

[Paco]

We seem to have the same discussions periodically but Test & Protect would pick it up if kids were bringing the virus home from school, and even the schools themselves would notice pretty easily - I’m sure a primary school teacher might just be a bit concerned by ten kids isolating due to unwell parents.

Secondary schools are a bit different, it seems that quite simply the older you get with this the more likely you are to pass it on. I’m quite sure none of the ‘OpEN uP LiKe SWeDeN’ brigade will have any idea that our secondary schools and colleges/unis are far more open than theirs - kids over 16 haven’t been allowed in educational settings since March, but primaries have never closed.

We won’t even consider anything like that though. Good old British common sense tells us it’s ridiculous that the wee man can go to school but his big sister cannae.

[Scary Bear]

42 minutes ago, Chairman Mao said:

All cause mortality in Sweden this year continues to be similar to previous years, lower than 2015, despite there being a pandemic and no lockdown. 2019 was a record low for mortality after very light excess winter deaths. 

Is Sweden a good country for us to compare ourselves too? We used to fight the Albanians for the title of sick man of Europe. When did we get on a par with Sweden?

[peasy23]

[Donathan]

1 hour ago, John MacLean said:

I get right fed up by people who reference the restrictions we've been under in terms of intervention by a nanny state. 

It's just utter libertarian nonsense. Not least because we're looking at approaching 70 years since we last had anything like a functioning nanny welfare state designed to protect the most vulnerable in society.  

A fit for purpose welfare state wouldn't have prevented the virus arriving here but we might have had a healthier country, better equipped to deal with it. 

We could have avoided the severity of the first Lockdown because our NHS wouldn't have been in danger of being overwhelmed. How good would it have been if we had had a well funded, state of the art National Health Service that instead of banging pots and pans for we could look at with genuine pride. 

People would be less afraid of losing their jobs because the state would be there to protect and not punish. 

Typically it is invariably the people that decry the nanny state that are also the people who cite Sweden as a great example of how to deal with Covid-19 but ignore the fact that their welfare state allowed them to take the approach they did. 

It's the libertarian, let the market decide and don't impinge upon people's 'freedom' approach that left us so vulnerable and it is the same libertarian, don't need face masks, open things up and just look after yourself approach that makes recovery so fucking difficult. 

It's not been too much state intervention that we've had over the last couple of generations but not enough. 

Ach, I'm just a grumpy old man fed up to the back teeth of all of this and the levels of utter selfishness that I encounter on a daily basis. And to think I was told that this was no longer a public health crisis. 

 

 

We are pretty much biologically wired to fend for ourselves and our families and friends. 

 

Claiming this is not the case it utter virtue signalling nonsense

[s_dog]

46 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

They are almost certainly going to do that again once any temporary circuit breaker measures are lifted and things revert to doing nothing different. There is no quick easy fix on this other than reaching herd immunity either by letting things run their natural course (keeping schools, pubs, workplaces open means that will almost certainly be what unfolds over the next few weeks) or through a vaccine (which may be a very long way off).

There is no quick and easy fix on this, that's the whole point. A vaccine will help, but we don't even know yet how long a working vaccine will work for. Herd immunity is not the answer either. 

https://medium.com/@gidmk/the-facts-about-herd-immunity-and-covid-19-3230616b70a3

 

29 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

That in itself is a complete contradiction in terms. I'm not for the 'do nothing and let the virus take its course' approach, but what we have at the moment are half-baked plans to contain something that simply can't be contained without complete isolation. 

It's not a complete contradiction, obviously there's a clash, but it's about balancing it and accepting there's a price to pay. Live your life as much as possible but minimise your interactions with others outside your immediate family. It's not perfect, but its something we might have to live with for a least a while. You can still meet your family & friends in a pub, cafe, restaurant etc, but you'll do so less often because of the restrictions. It might be a vain attempt at stopping the rise of infections, along with all the other 'half-baked' plans, but what is the point in not even trying and instead choosing between either complete isolation or doing nothing and leaving it to fate?

 

 

[scottmcleanscontacts]

I get right fed up by people who reference the restrictions we've been under in terms of intervention by a nanny state. 
It's just utter libertarian nonsense. Not least because we're looking at approaching 70 years since we last had anything like a functioning nanny welfare state designed to protect the most vulnerable in society.  
A fit for purpose welfare state wouldn't have prevented the virus arriving here but we might have had a healthier country, better equipped to deal with it. 
We could have avoided the severity of the first Lockdown because our NHS wouldn't have been in danger of being overwhelmed. How good would it have been if we had had a well funded, state of the art National Health Service that instead of banging pots and pans for we could look at with genuine pride. 
People would be less afraid of losing their jobs because the state would be there to protect and not punish. 
Typically it is invariably the people that decry the nanny state that are also the people who cite Sweden as a great example of how to deal with Covid-19 but ignore the fact that their welfare state allowed them to take the approach they did. 
It's the libertarian, let the market decide and don't impinge upon people's 'freedom' approach that left us so vulnerable and it is the same libertarian, don't need face masks, open things up and just look after yourself approach that makes recovery so fucking difficult. 
It's not been too much state intervention that we've had over the last couple of generations but not enough. 
Ach, I'm just a grumpy old man fed up to the back teeth of all of this and the levels of utter selfishness that I encounter on a daily basis. And to think I was told that this was no longer a public health crisis. 
 

Amen.

Libertarians in the truest sense are often the biggest 'pull the ladder up' types when the going gets tough.

I won't lie, there's a Socialist in me and when I see the way that our society is going, not just with this pandemic but more generally I sometimes wish there was more state intervention.

It's needed - your comments about how our NHS should be state of the art are spot on. It might well be free at the point of use but there's still an incredible amount of money ploughed into it by the vast majority of the population. The state of it is a fucking disgrace for the most part. Mostly this is down to bureaucracy - and the way the NHS operates at management level.

[Eddie Hitler]

12 minutes ago, Donathan said:

 

We are pretty much biologically wired to fend for ourselves and our families and friends. 

 

Claiming this is not the case it utter virtue signalling nonsense

Correct but it's also the case that you 'fend for yourself and your family and friends ' by not letting c*nts take your protections from you and that, when you otherwise lack power, you manage that by not being divided and ruled by those c*nts so that they can strip them away.

[Hedgecutter]

Not that it makes much difference now, but deary me...  

Quote

MP Margaret Ferrier is believed to have attended Mass at a church in Glasgow after showing Covid symptoms.

The Daily Record reported that Ms Ferrier gave a reading as she joined up to 50 parishioners at St Mungo's RC church in Townhead on 27 September.

She later travelled to London before returning to Glasgow by train after testing positive.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54433535

 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

It's not a complete contradiction, obviously there's a clash, but it's about balancing it and accepting there's a price to pay. Live your life as much as possible but minimise your interactions with others outside your immediate family. It's not perfect, but its something we might have to live with for a least a while. You can still meet your family & friends in a pub, cafe, restaurant etc, but you'll do so less often because of the restrictions. It might be a vain attempt at stopping the rise of infections, along with all the other 'half-baked' plans, but what is the point in not even trying and instead choosing between either complete isolation or doing nothing and leaving it to fate?
 
 

Part of the problem is that some measures are just being flouted because we just don't enforce them properly - personally fed up of the "why I don't fare a face mask" bullshit excuses.

[LongTimeLurker]

2 minutes ago, s_dog said:

There is no quick and easy fix on this, that's the whole point. A vaccine will help, but we don't even know yet how long a working vaccine will work for. Herd immunity is not the answer either. 

https://medium.com/@gidmk/the-facts-about-herd-immunity-and-covid-19-3230616b70a3

 

I wouldn't take what's in that link as gospel. What happens in Sweden over the next few months relative to what happens in western European countries that implemented strict lockdowns will provide a lot of answers in that context.

[Michael W]

1 hour ago, Squirrelhumper said:

This is England for last week. Assume we'll be very similar.

Great patter when hospitality settings will bear the brunt of enhanced restrictions given that they are low for transmission per that graph. Wonder how big a dent sending the students home might make? 

This is showing a wide gap with Scotland in terms of infections occurring in households though. 

Edited October 6, 2020 by Michael W

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Not that it makes much difference now, but deary me...  

MP Margaret Ferrier is believed to have attended Mass at a church in Glasgow after showing Covid symptoms.
The Daily Record reported that Ms Ferrier gave a reading as she joined up to 50 parishioners at St Mungo's RC church in Townhead on 27 September.
She later travelled to London before returning to Glasgow by train after testing positive.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54433535

 
Mental is the only thing I can say.

Did she also have a brain bypass when she got Covid-19?

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Great patter when hospitality settings will bear the brunt of enhanced restrictions given that they low for transmission per that graph. Wonder how big a dent sending the students home might make? 
This is showing a wide gap with Scotland in terms of infections occurring in households though. 

I think we might be getting to the point where we have a different strategy depending on if you are symptomatic or asymptomatic or in a vulnerable group.

Sad but true.

[welshbairn]

7 minutes ago, Hedgecutter said:

Not that it makes much difference now, but deary me...  

 

Bet she gobbed in the wine.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

1 minute ago, Michael W said:

Great patter when hospitality settings will bear the brunt of enhanced restrictions given that they low for transmission per that graph. Wonder how big a dent sending the students home might make? 

This is showing a wide gap with Scotland in terms of infections occurring in households though. 

That enforces the point I made that hitting the hospitality industry once again is a cheap shot based not on science but on political, take the easy way out reasoning. 

It also reinforces the fact that transmission of the virus occurs mostly inside. Which makes the decision not to allow limited crowds at sporting events nothing more than another political decision.

[madwullie]

34 minutes ago, Donathan said:

 

We are pretty much biologically wired to fend for ourselves and our families and friends. 

 

Claiming this is not the case it utter virtue signalling nonsense

Let's just stick 3000 years of moral and political philosophy in the bin then. Settled by @Donathan. Sit the f**k down John Stuart Mill m8

Edited October 6, 2020 by madwullie

[madwullie]

15 minutes ago, Hedgecutter said:

Not that it makes much difference now, but deary me...  

 

She needs to get herself to f**k stat