Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Detournement]

Mass murderer Tony Blair has been on TV talking about the need for an electronic Covid pass system to prove your vaccination status.

There is nothing sinister about that all.

[Robin.Hood]

I presume the hubs will be open?

My issue i have is... I take unpaid leave and keep my kids away from the hubs like last time or I put them in it which I don't want to do. Unpaid leave is shit but just means I need to change hours or longer shifts or whatever.

Schools should be shut however its tough going. Keep my kids safe but work in and around the virus every day making sure I'm missing it.

[8MileBU]

50 minutes ago, Jan Vojáček said:

Aside from extending the online learning period of the schools, I'm unsure what else they can do that will actually have an impact on figures in a serious way.

Sure they could cancel professional sport, shut takeaways or limit us back to 30 minutes outside a day. But I can't see any of those things having serious impact at all on the R number given the regulations we're already under.

We have a vaccine. If there are more restrictions to come then it needs to go hand-in-hand with a massive roll-out. We can't keep a lockdown until the end of April whilst faffing about vaccinating a small number of people every week.

They're only one example obviously, but my grandparents are 81; my Granny has cancer and my Papa has COPD and Bronchitis. They must be in one of the highest risk groups going and they're down at the health centre/hospital once or twice every single week - but as yet haven't heard a peep about their vaccine. 

My Gran will be () 94 come April, has been in the local community hospice for several months due to a non-covid related issue (pancreatic) but is over it and for her age, is in pretty good health other than a gammy hip. Still heehaw mention or any sign of her receiving the vaccine though. Really pissing me off as the local community care services are dragging their heels citing the lack of vaccination and some other stuff which I can only describe as third-hand information as my family are awful at keeping us in the loop of exactly what’s going on and when. Short of it is, the lack of progress in rolling out the vaccine seems to be prolonging her stay in the hospice where I’d imagine she’s at more risk when she should/would be far better off getting home.

[welshbairn]

25 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

If there is to be a return to a full March lockdown, then it has to go hand in hand with a schedule for vaccinations. Even if it means plowing f**k tonnes of money at AZ to guarantee supply.

Throwing money at AZ and Pfizer to speed up supply will probably take too long, and by the time they're churning the extra out there will likely be a number of rivals delivering all we can cope with, even using the military and going 24/7. One benefit of the new variant is that the phase 3 trials by Johnson and Johnson, and Novavax, should be finished much sooner with interim results in the next few weeks or February at the latest, and both of them can be stored at normal fridge temperature. China will likely be able to massively scale up production quickly of the 2 vaccines I've heard about, and Russia will be keen for the foreign currency for theirs. I hope the MHRA have been authorised to assess them too.

[Detournement]

There is zero chance you'll ever see a Russian or Chinese vaccine in the UK.

Cold War 2 is well and truly on. 

[Cyclizine]

16 hours ago, s_dog said:

Recognising and managing anaphylaxis, Resuscitation, Safeguarding adults, Safeguarding children, Vaccine administration, Vaccine storage, Health Safety and Welfare, Infection Prevention and control, Introduction to Anaphylaxis, Legal aspects of vaccination, Moving and Handling, Preventing radicalisation, Conflict resolution, Core knowledge for Covid-19 vaccinators, Covid mRNA vaccine BNT162b2 (Pfizer BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine), Data security awareness, Equality Diversity and Human rights, Fire safety.

Apart from the Covid specific modules, this is really just all the generic training modules any clinical staff member has to do as a new start and keep valid during employment: Scottish health boards are similar. It's why it's easier for staff who are already directly employed by the health board to be vaccinators. Dentists are essentially contractors. It's all e-learning on a national system here and most of the modules are pretty short, I seem to remember cracking through them all in a morning during Board induction many years ago. 

To be fair, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a basic level of knowledge about safe storage and administration if the vaccine and a refresher on possible complications. I can see why folk think some of the other modules are excessive though.

Problem is most of the generic ones are statutory, so unless there's a dispensation, the health boards can't employ new staff without them. Our Board got in trouble a few years ago for medical staff not keeping modules updated and it caused no end of trouble as the Health & Safety Executive rocked up and started interrogating us on how to put out fires, clean up blood spills and dispose of waste, etc. Managers panicked as HSE have legal powers to prosecute them as individuals.

Edited January 3, 2021 by Cyclizine

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, Jan Vojáček said:

They're only one example obviously, but my grandparents are 81; my Granny has cancer and my Papa has COPD and Bronchitis. They must be in one of the highest risk groups going and they're down at the health centre/hospital once or twice every single week - but as yet haven't heard a peep about their vaccine. 

The impression I've got in Inverness is the initial Pfizer deliveries went to hospitals and larger care homes; local surgeries etc are waiting for the AZ one which is much easier to handle, I'm expecting an appointment for my 93 year old Mother this month, and as I'll be pushing her round  in her wheelchair I'm hoping to blag one too.

Edited January 3, 2021 by welshbairn

[Bairnardo]

13 minutes ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

I’m assuming you’ve now accepted schools should be shut?

Not necessarily. That issue is ridiculously complex, different for ELC/Primary/Secondary and probably by area too. I also do not believe at this point they should be getting away with open ended restrictions which would no doubt be what they would come with. What I am saying though is I would personally find it acceptable to keep them shut for a defined period, ie until February as a completely arbitrary example, to allow a big dent to be made in vaccine delivery and to somewhat suppress the numbers from their Xmas f**k up.

Before that happens though, lets see the fucking plan for making those numbers as high as possible.

FWIW, once again, my kids will be at school in whatever capacity they are there for key workers, so theres no selfish motivation from me, and I would take a short term hit to give a window of focusing on vaccine delivery, but I am not prepared to watch vaccine numbers slithering upwards at a snails pace and be told that my kids might get educated some time before Easter "if cases allow" etc

[Robin.Hood]

1 minute ago, Tynierose said:

The hubs are open for key workers again.   There is absolutely no way your children can pick up the virus in hubs, nope the hubs are super immune.

There is no way a child who is asymptomatic will pass on the virus to a parent who will then take it into hospital etc spreading the virus to the most vulnerable.   No, hubs are safe just like schools, unlike restaurants.

I'd quite happily take unpaid leave for 3 months if necessary but no way would my employer countenance that nor would many others I guess.  Ah the key worker dilemma...

I could take a career break. A few have however I know personally I cant afford too. 

Meh just get on with it. Today may be less busy 

[Sergeant Wilson]

24 minutes ago, Robin.Hood said:

 hubs will be open?

Yaass!

Eta

Booo!

Edited January 3, 2021 by Sergeant Wilson

[Bairnardo]

4 minutes ago, Tynierose said:

The hubs are open for key workers again.   There is absolutely no way your children can pick up the virus in hubs, nope the hubs are super immune.

There is no way a child who is asymptomatic will pass on the virus to a parent who will then take it into hospital etc spreading the virus to the most vulnerable.   No, hubs are safe just like schools, unlike restaurants.

I'd quite happily take unpaid leave for 3 months if necessary but no way would my employer countenance that nor would many others I guess.  Ah the key worker dilemma...

Leaving aside the 3 months unpaid leave idea, what's the alternative for key workers? I mean, of course they could be harsher on what constitutes a key worker and pare it down to the bare minimum to keep the country functioning.... Is that an acceptable place to be at this moment though? I would be even more damaging that the March lockdown, in the middle of winter....

For me personally, its either school or grandparents. There are literally no other options. Not a hope in hell of any variety of time off for me or the wife, not a hope in hell of our jobs being somehow reclassified. Plenty will be in that boat. So aye... Not exactly an easy issue to resolve without schools in play.

[Marshmallo]

15 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

 theres no selfish motivation from me

Haha!

[Elric]

14 minutes ago, Tynierose said:

The hubs are open for key workers again.   There is absolutely no way your children can pick up the virus in hubs, nope the hubs are super immune.

There is no way a child who is asymptomatic will pass on the virus to a parent who will then take it into hospital etc spreading the virus to the most vulnerable.   No, hubs are safe just like schools, unlike restaurants.

I'd quite happily take unpaid leave for 3 months if necessary but no way would my employer countenance that nor would many others I guess.  Ah the key worker dilemma...

Friends daughter is divorced with a child but with new partner. She works as a credit controller but considers herself to be a key worker so last time kid was sent to school.  Kid also goes and stays with father in different LA every second weekend where she mixes with other children.  There is no possibility that she will be at risk of carrying and spreading the virus!

The SG seriously have to lay out who is a key worker and who is not if the schools are going to be open to key workers children only.

[Bairnardo]

8 minutes ago, Elric said:

Friends daughter is divorced with a child but with new partner. She works as a credit controller but considers herself to be a key worker so last time kid was sent to school.  Kid also goes and stays with father in different LA every second weekend where she mixes with other children.  There is no possibility that she will be at risk of carrying and spreading the virus!

The SG seriously have to lay out who is a key worker and who is not if the schools are going to be open to key workers children only.

I believe they allowed the LA's to define it themselves. I never did it in March so don't know if its different now but there's a form which defines the criteria. When I filled it in I got a reply from the school straight away saying it was fine. I guess it does leave room for interpretation/embellishment

[effeffsee_the2nd]

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/
Non peer reviewed pre print from Ferguson and his crew at Imperial.
Under a half dozen different models the new strain is expected to have an additive effect on R by 0.4 to 0.7 (Well, 0.36 to 0.68)
The paper also looked at trying to figure out the R for both the old and new strains through the second English lockdown. It comes to the conclusion that the R for the old strain during that lockdown was 0.92 vs. 1.45 for the new strain, so 0.53 difference in additive effect of R.
Given the tier 4 restrictions up here managed to get R below 1 as well, it seems that the old strain could be controlled with schools remaining open.
The new strain cannot. Where the new strain is not dominant, it will become so as it outcompetes the old stuff. That means at the very least I'd expect Sturgeon to announce schools continuing in online earning until February.
If transmission is raised across all age groups equally as the paper here suggests: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html then there might be some scope to get the younger kids and primary schools back in person but you'd expect them to wait and collate a lot more data before going down that route.
The issue is that if the increase in R is closer to the upper end suggested by Ferguson, then closing schools might not necessarily be enough to control transmission by itself. So what then? Strict stay at home order? Curfew? 
If there is to be a return to a full March lockdown, then it has to go hand in hand with a schedule for vaccinations. Even if it means plowing f**k tonnes of money at AZ to guarantee supply. Otherwise it won't stick. I do think restrictions need to stay in place at least until they can get enough of the vulnerable groups vaccinated to bring down hospitalisations. Otherwise we run the risk of crashing the NHS at the point where it is trying to manage a massive vaccination program. The stories coming out of SE England are not exactly cheery.

What is the point in a curfew when everything else is closed ? Do people really spread the virus going for a walk or going to the supermarket late at night? Or is it because people use those as excuses for doing things that are not permitted and the police have no way of enforcing it?

[renton]

3 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

What is the point in a curfew when everything else is closed ? Do people really spread the virus going for a walk or going to the supermarket late at night? Or is it because people use those as excuses for doing things that are not permitted and the police have no way of enforcing it?

Well, presumably the rationale is that a curfew simply limits the statistical probability of your contacting someone else.

You could put a curfew on starting things (i.e. a later opening for supermarkets for example) but all that would achieve is condensing the number of folk using a shop or service into a shorter period of time and hence increasing the number of contacts you'd have.

A night curfew probably doesn't have that effect.

[Steven W]

For someone who's supposedly 'scunnered' with all this, NS tone and use of language is remarkably different when it's bad news versus good news.

A 5 post thread this morning on Twitter about impending restrictions preceded a re-tweet of a lengthy study on this new variant.

Versus a solitary tweet about the AZ vaccine approval an hour and a half after the news broke.

To me it sends out all the wrong signals. Granted things are a little bleak just now, but we really need to be hearing about vaccine progress as well as the all negative stuff. A good example being we get daily updates on deaths, hospitalisations, infections etc. But vaccination numbers are weekly.

[Bairnardo]

Just now, Steven W said:

For someone who's supposedly 'scunnered' with all this, NS tone and use of language is remarkably different when it's bad news versus good news.

A 5 post thread this morning on Twitter about impending restrictions preceded a re-tweet of a lengthy study on this new variant.

Versus a solitary tweet about the AZ vaccine approval an hour and a half after the news broke.

To me it sends out all the wrong signals. Granted things are a little bleak just now, but we really need to be hearing about vaccine progress as well as the all negative stuff. A good example being we get daily updates on deaths, hospitalisations, infections etc. But vaccination numbers are weekly.

They are not prepared to have it scrutinised. Either methods or results.

[ICTChris]

Friends daughter is divorced with a child but with new partner. She works as a credit controller but considers herself to be a key worker so last time kid was sent to school.  Kid also goes and stays with father in different LA every second weekend where she mixes with other children.  There is no possibility that she will be at risk of carrying and spreading the virus!
The SG seriously have to lay out who is a key worker and who is not if the schools are going to be open to key workers children only.

I’m sure there is a document laying out who is a key worker.

We send our son to a private nursery who shut between March and June IIRC. They are staying open for children who have one key worker parent, so we qualify as wife is a key worker (I am a filthy capitalist so non-key worker).

[Thereisalight..]

On 02/01/2021 at 10:57, bendan said:

I think when people say 24/7 they actually mean not just 8-4 Mon-Fri. 

It will ultimately be irrelevant as we won't have enough vaccine anyway.

Yet the drive through test centres are open from 8am-8pm Mon to Fri and were also open Christmas and New Years Day. You’d think vaccinating the elderly/vulnerable and actually getting on with life would be more important than asking people with no symptoms and who feel perfectly fine to get tested