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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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8 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

I think some of the angst surrounding Russia eventually rolling into a NATO state is a bit OTT. 

Mad as Putin is, mutually assured destruction isn't going to be high on his to do list, you'd feel. There are no winners if Russia was to attack a NATO state, none whatsoever.

Right now, the best hope of the downfall of Putin is from within. There are increasing swathes of people taking to the streets in the Russian cities. People who do not want to see this course of action from Russia or feel it is necessary. That is going to harm Putin's regime more than any economic sanctions.

Latvia and that are 4th Division NATO. We can't be both about them.

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How long will any internal dissention in Russia take to topple a dictator though?

Have to kick them in the roubles as far as oil and gas go,...it would take time to switch to other producers of these products, and would mean a price hike in the short term, but when faced with ongoing war on the doorstep of Europe, how else do you stand up to someone like Putin (while keeping all out war off the table)

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10 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

Only if the US joins in, which I'm not 100% sure they would do to start with.

Also the added unknown of China, who seem most likely to side with Russia.

NATO v Russia/China would be a war that couldn't end quickly or well.

You’re basically relying on the NATO alliance holding together.  It was designed for a very different world and it’s never been tested.  Is mad Vlad willing to go all in and see what happens?

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I was referring to his bizarre, rambling speech he made on Monday referencing the breakup of the Soviet Union. I wasn't being completely serious with my point but you have to admit that even for Putin this is pretty ballsy


It didn't seem too different from some of the other lengthy speeches he's made in the past. As he said, he gave everyone ample warning that this was what he would do* if Western military creep in Ukraine wasn't reversed.

It is ballsy, you're right, but everyone's been in a position where they've had to be more ballsy than ever before. Perhaps it was just asking a girl for a drink, but by definition your most ballsy move will always be out of character. It doesn't necessarily mean you've stopped thinking rationally.

In general I just wanted to push back a bit on the idea that Putin is some madman who doesn't think about consequences (not that that's what you were saying).

*okay, the scale of the invasion is probably bigger than most presumed.
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All that is going to do is hasten the day Ukraine joins NATO so I'm not sure what that gains him other than a bit of borrowed time.
Unless of course he really only does wants unfettered access to the Black Sea.
In which case securing a part of Ukraine might suffice and he might be willing to lose the rest to NATO as a deal.
You could well be right here.


I think he's made it less likely that Ukraine (or any other neighbour) will join NATO.

It's like the bully who punches you, shows you their fist again, then walks away laughing because they know you (and any of your pals watching) are shit scared.
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40% of natural gas to Europe comes from...of course, Russia. Strategy to become less reliant on it could take until around 2030 though:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/02/23/russia-ukraine-eu-nordstream-strategy-energy/

The Mad one has clearly been planning this for some time. Knowing that he has Europe over an (oil) barrel, knowing that America has a President who will be much less willing than Trump to get involved in any foreign conflicts, knowing that Russian money sloshing around London as well as other cities isn't going to be cut off, knowing that Russia leads the way on cyber warfare which poses a threat to Europe and America, this looks like it has been a long time coming unfortunately.

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3 minutes ago, Adamski said:

Slightly off topic, but Ukraine must surely be a solid bet for the Eurovision Song Contest this year. They were one of the favourites already, and they’ll get heaps of sympathy votes.

Not now the song has been changed to "All Hail Vlad, Our Glorious Leader"

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7 minutes ago, Jedi said:

40% of natural gas to Europe comes from...of course, Russia. Strategy to become less reliant on it could take until around 2030 though:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/02/23/russia-ukraine-eu-nordstream-strategy-energy/

The Mad one has clearly been planning this for some time. Knowing that he has Europe over an (oil) barrel, knowing that America has a President who will be much less willing than Trump to get involved in any foreign conflicts, 

Wut

Trump was the arch isolationist who wanted nothing to do with any conflict (hence the cut and run deal with the Taliban). The advisors/carers for Sleepy Joe have played a major role in setting the West and Ukraine up for a fall, by engaging in blowhard rhetoric and trying to turn the clock back on American power to 1992. 

Turns out that two can play that game. 

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23 minutes ago, Sarcastic Bairn said:


I hadn’t seen anything about how the Russian population were dealing with this.

I would imagine the vast majority of the Russian population would be against what Putin has done.....it would be great to see millions take to the streets and a real revolution with large numbers of police and military swapping sides (so to speak)

I know a few Russians who are on facebook and have all added Ukrainian flags to their profiles.  Maybe, just maybe the people can drive real change...........

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